The Red Sox and Astros kick off the League Division Series, picking up where they ended the season, playing each other. Houston took four of the seven games from Boston during the regular season. Here is a look at the offenses.
| Statistic | Boston Red Sox | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 4.85 (6th) | 5.53 (1st) |
| Batting Avg. | .258 (8th) | .282 (1st) |
| OBP | .329 (5th) | .346 (1st) |
| Slugging Pct. | .407 (14th) | .478 (1st) |
| Home Runs | 168 (15th) | 238 (2nd) |
| Stolen Base % | 77% (3rd-T) | 70% (12th-T) |
Houston posted the best offense in the American League, excelling in all the majors categories with the exception of stolen base percentage. Given their ability to fill the bases with batters, then drive those runners home with power, the low stolen base percentage was very minor.
The Red Sox offense was good, especially given their lack of home run power. They made up for the lack of power with steals, which didn’t drive home runners but did put them in scoring position.
Here is how the pitchers compare:
| Statistic | Boston Red Sox | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Avg. | 3.70 (2nd) | 4.12 (5th) |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 4.12 (3rd) | 4.32 (4th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.6 (4th) | 9.9 (2nd) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 2.8 (2nd) | 3.2 (8th-T) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 26.3 (2nd) | 26.6 (4th) |
| BABIP | .304 (11th-T) | .302 (9th) |
The Red Sox own the better ERA, but the gap in run prevention narrow when all defensive runs are taken into consideration. Both pitching staffs (staves?) strike out a ton of batters, but the Red Sox excelled at stopping walks and home runs. Preventing home runs should put a dent in Houston’s offense. Preventing walks won’t hurt the Astros much, since hits are a bigger part of their OBP. The Red Sox pitchers putting the ball in the strike zone gives the Astros the chance to do what they do best, mash the ball.
Of course, the Astros overall stats do not reflect having Justin Verlander for a full season. Verlander seems committed to finally winning a World Series ring.
The Red Sox have been pounding the back ends of bullpens in the middle innings lately. The Astros pen does not appear that deep, but it’s tough to drive Verlander and Dallas Keuchel out of games early. Look for the Boston batters to work deep counts early in the game.
In the end, the teams look close in pitching, with the Astros owning the superior offense. That should be enough to carry Houston to the next round, and I give them a 55% chance of playing in the ALCS.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2xdnWtd
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