The Yankees and Indians open their AL division series on Thursday night. Offensively, the teams are very evenly matched:
| Statistic | New York Yankees | Cleveland Indians |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 5.30 (2nd) | 5.05 (3rd) |
| Batting Avg. | .262 (3rd) | .263 (2nd) |
| OBP | .339 (2nd-T) | .339 (2nd-T) |
| Slugging Pct. | .447 (3rd) | .449 (2nd) |
| Home Runs | 241 (1st) | 212 (8th) |
| Stolen Base % | 80% (1st) | 79% (2nd) |
As far as the averages go, the two teams are almost identical. The difference is how they achieve their respective slugging percentages. The Indians hit a high number of doubles and triples, the Yankees use home runs. The way one slugs does matter. Doubles and triples are great, but they still require two acts to score the batter delivering the extra-base hit. The home run does not. The Yankees scored 40 more runs than the Indians, and part of that was not needing the second hit after the long one.
Here is how the pitchers compare:
| Statistic | New York Yankees | Cleveland Indians |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Avg. | 3.72 (3rd) | 3.30 (1st) |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 4.07 (2nd) | 3.48 (1st) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.7 (3rd) | 10.1 (1st) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.1 (5th-T) | 2.5 (1st) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 26.5 (3rd) | 22.6 (1st) |
| BABIP | .282 (1st) | .305 (14th) |
The Yankees staff pitched very well, but the Indians were superlative. Note that in terms of home run prevention, while the Yankees were near the top of the league, the Indians blew away the AL. The Red Sox were second at 26.3 HR per 200 IP. The strength of the Indians staff goes right after the strength of the Yankees hitters. In fact, the Indians held the Yankees to just six home runs this season, one every 38 at bats. For the season, the Yankees averaged a HR every 23 at bats.
I am a bit surprised by the high BABIP allowed by the Indians. I suspect this team is more like the Yankees of the early 2000s, where strikeout pitchers covered up a porous defense. A team that put the ball in play a lot might do well against the Indians. The Yankees are not that team.
Joe Girardi embraced the quick to the bullpen approach of Terry Francona from the 2016 playoffs, so this series could easily be a battle of the bullpens. Yankees relievers allowed a .204/.292/.329 slash line in 2017, Indians relievers came in .225/.289/.345. The team that scores early likely wins the game.
Both these teams were somewhat unlucky during the regular season. The Yankees played nine games below their Pythagorean projection, the Indians six games below. Both are better than their actual won-loss records. This is a tough one to call, but given the home field advantage and their ability to limit home runs, the Indians get the nod. I give them a 54% chance of winning the series.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2wyOn8p
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