The last opening game of a league division series takes place Friday night as the Diamondbacks visit the Dodgers. The offensive comparison:
| Statistic | Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 5.01 (4th) | 4.75 (6th) |
| Batting Avg. | .254 (7th) | .249 (11th-T) |
| OBP | .329 (7th-T) | .334 (3rd-T) |
| Slugging Pct. | .445 (2nd) | .437 (4th-T) |
| Home Runs | 220 (5th) | 221 (4th) |
| Stolen Base % | 77% (2nd) | 73% (6th-T) |
The quarter run difference between the two teams seems high to me, given the rather small differences in their slash line averages. The Diamondbacks are better base runners, not just in steals but in avoiding outs on the bases. The Diamondbacks were better than the Dodgers with runners in scoring position. I’m tempted to think the Dodgers black hole in the fifth slot was a major cause of the difference.
The fifth slot in the order needs to a bit of a swing position. The fifth hitter needs to be able to hit for power to complete the offensive sequence started by the top of the order. In addition, he should do a decent job of getting on base to start another sequence to give the weak hitters at the bottom a chance to do some damage. Dodgers #5 hitters recorded a .215/.308/.390 slash line. With the exception of Logan Forsythe, the players Dave Roberts penciled into the slot did not perform. All this leads me to believe the teams are more evenly matched than there runs per game numbers indicate. The Dodgers were likely a bit unlucky on offense in 2017.
Here is how the pitching staffs compare:
| Statistic | Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Avg. | 3.66 (2nd) | 3.38 (1st) |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 4.07 (2nd) | 3.58 (1st) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.3 (2nd) | 9.6 (1st) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.2 (5th-T) | 2.8 (1st) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 23.7 (1st) | 25.5 (5th) |
| BABIP | .297 (4th) | .284 (1st) |
These are two superlative pitching staffs. The Diamondbacks walk a few more batters, the Dodgers allow more home runs. One thing I particularly like about the Dodgers is that they don’t use strikeouts to cover up a weak defense. They prevent the ball from being put in play with a high K rate, but their fielder gobble up the balls that do managed to find bats. The Diamondbacks are no slouches in this regard, but the Dodgers take it to the next level.
Only playing two games at home does hurt Arizona. The team is built to excel in Phoenix. The pitchers perform about the same home and road, limiting hits a bit at home. The batters hit .274/.350/.492 at home, .235/.309/.398.
These are two very evenly matched teams. Arizona won the season series 11-8.The home field advantage may win it for the Dodgers, and I favor them slightly, giving Los Angeles a 52% chance of winning the series.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2fNhhuw
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