The Pitching Change

The Sunday night game between the Indians and the Yankees was a rare one this post-season, in which both starters pitched well. Game one of the Cubs series against the Nationals was the only other one that produced two good outings. It shouldn’t be that much of a surprise, then, that relievers pitched more innings than starters so far in this post season. That had not happened in the previous 15 years:

Post Season	Stater Innings	Starter Runs	Starter RPer9	Relief Innings	Relief Runs	Relief RPer9	Pct Relief IP
2017	101.3	68	6.04	111.7	57	4.59	52.4
2016	357.7	160	4.03	272.3	99	3.27	43.2
2015	396.7	205	4.65	258.7	109	3.79	39.5
2014	356.0	162	4.10	239.0	93	3.50	40.2
2013	437.3	188	3.87	233.3	82	3.16	34.8
2012	420.3	162	3.47	253.0	96	3.42	37.6
2011	400.7	232	5.21	274.7	139	4.55	40.7
2010	384.3	160	3.75	183.3	72	3.53	32.3
2009	349.7	171	4.40	189.7	89	4.22	35.2
2008	351.3	194	4.97	218.7	76	3.13	38.4
2007	294.3	162	4.95	206.0	95	4.15	41.2
2006	342.0	152	4.00	181.7	76	3.77	34.7
2005	354.3	177	4.50	199.0	85	3.84	36.0
2004	360.3	209	5.22	273.0	144	4.75	43.1
2003	457.0	213	4.19	242.7	93	3.45	34.7
2002	361.3	227	5.65	232.3	123	4.76	39.1

 

I use runs per nine rather than earned runs per nine as I don’t have team earned runs for relievers.

Looking at 2002 through 2015, bullpen use tends to correlate with the quality of the pitching. In general, the lower the Rper9IP for the starters, the smaller the share of innings going to the bullpen. Note, too, that the bullpen always allowed fewer runs per 9 IP than the starters.

Now look at the 2016 line. Starters posted a 4.03 Rper9IP, the fifth lowest value in the study. Relievers, however, accounted for 43.2% of the innings, the highest share until this season. The only other year that is close was 2004, when starters were hammered.

Last season, starters were not allowed to get into trouble. This season, starters can’t avoid trouble, and that combination of change in bullpen philosophy and poor starting pitching means that relievers are pitching more than starters. I suspect as teams get weeded out through the rest of the 2017 post season that will change, but we may still be looking at parity between the two entities, rather than a 60-40 split in favor of the starters.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2za9wrk