Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Do Your People Own Their Commitments/Responsibilities?

A sales manager was whining to me, “My sales people don’t do what I tell them to do!  How do I get them to do the things I want them to do?”  He went on a rampage describing how they weren’t meeting their commitments, how they weren’t doing the things that drove the best results, how they were not meeting the organization’s priorities.  He was actually right, many of the people weren’t meeting their commitments.

I asked, “Have you asked them what they think they should be doing and what they want to do?”

He gave me one of those cross-eyed looks, I suspect he was thinking, “What BS is he talking about, doesn’t he realize I’m the boss, I need to get them to do what I want them to do!”

This is actually where there are great disconnects between managers and their people.  As managers, as much as we expect our people to do the things we want them to do, but until they own it for themselves, they won’t get it done!

The challenge becomes, “How do we get our people to own the things critical to the organization and performance?

Until our people internalize what we are trying to achieve, until they own these things for themselves, it is unlikely they will meet commitments and responsibilities.

How do we do this?

It’s actually not that difficult, but it takes time on the part of the manager to invest in helping people understand and to coach them (you had to know there would be a catch).

First, each person has to be very clear about what their job is and the expectations we have of their performance.  It’s not just telling them what it is, but it’s engaging them in conversations to help them understand.  Give examples of what good performance looks like, also examples of what bad performance is.  Make sure they are engaging you, pay attention to the questions they are asking, be wary if they aren’t asking questions.

Ask them to give examples of things they might do to achieve the expectations of the role.  It’s insufficient to for them to say, “I’ve got to make my numbers…”  Instead, ask them to think about the things they should be doing to make their numbers.  Don’t give them the answers but through your own questions encourage them to start to give examples.

The process of them figuring out what they need to be doing and how to do it starts creating commitment on their part.

Agree on the most important things they should be doing.

Then have them set goals for doing those things.  Make sure they are being realistic, walk them through what it will take them to achieve those goals.  Help them connect the dots between the things they need to be doing every day to achieve the goals you have agreed upon.

Now they’ve figured it out, make sure they document these into an action plan.  Where possible leverage tools like your CRM system so you both can track progress.

The process doesn’t stop there.

Thing will distract or derail them on the way.  Here’s where your coaching comes in.  Help them understand what’s working and what’s not working.  Help them figure out to how to bet back on track.

It’s not complicated.

It works–virtually 100% of the time.

But it takes your and their commitment to doing the things that cause them to own and execute the things they need to do.

You might be tempted to fall back into bad habits, telling them is so much easier and takes much less time.  But it doesn’t work.  Isn’t it insanity to commit to doing the things that don’t work?

 



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McCovey Passes

Hall of Famer Willie McCovey died today, Wednesday. He was 80 years old and in poor health:

Nicknamed “Stretch” for the long arms and legs attached to his 6-foot-4 frame, McCovey and fellow Hall of Famer and Alabama native Willie Mays comprised the core of San Francisco Giants teams that gave opposing pitchers The Willies. McCovey’s pull power was so prodigious that the China Basin that sits beyond the right-field wall at AT&T Park is affectionately referred to as “McCovey Cove,” though McCovey never played there.

A statue of McCovey sits at the mouth of the Cove, which would have made for a fine target in his playing days.

“He could hit a ball farther than anyone I ever played with,” Mays once said of McCovey.

My thought go out to his family, friends, and fans.

McCovey came up at age 21 in 1959 and impressed immediately, posting a .354/.429/.656 slash line in 219 PA. He led the NL in home runs three times, RBI twice, walks once, and slugging percentage three times. His best season was either 1963 or 1970, although his 1970 line looks better. I suspect that 1963 was a low offensive year in the NL, and McCovey managed to lead the league with 44 homers. He played until 1980, although 1977 would be his last good year at the plate. His final slash line came in at .270/.374/.515, and his 521 home runs tied him with Ted Williams, and they would eventually be joined by Frank Thomas.



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Fischer Passes

Former player and long time coach Bill Fischer died on Tuesday:

Former big league pitcher Bill Fischer, who spent more than seven decades as a player and coach in professional baseball, died Tuesday. He was 88.

The Royals announced Fischer’s death in a statement Wednesday. No cause was given.

Fischer was 17 when he signed with the Chicago White Sox in 1948. He was fresh out of high school and played until 1951, when he was drafted by the Marines. He returned to the White Sox in 1954 and wound up playing for nine organizations and making 281 major league appearances.

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

It’s always a bit jarring to look at three-true outcome rates from the 1950s. Fischer allowed 0.9 HR per 9 IP, and 2.3 walks per 9 IP. He struck out just 3.4 batters per nine innings, however, and someone that low today would likely not make a major league roster. His best year was probably 1957, although he only pitched 124 innings. He allowed just one home run that season and 35 walks, helping him to a 3.48 ERA.



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Better Price

David Price decides to not exercise his opt-out clause:

The left-handed pitcher announced at Fenway Park Wednesday morning that he will not be exercising the opt-out clause in his seven-year, $217 million contract.

“I’m opting in,” he said prior to the team’s celebratory duck boat parade. “I’m not going anywhere. I want to win here. We did that this year, and I want to do it again.”

Price’s tenure in Boston has had its fair share of ups and downs, but the 33-year-old insisted he had always planned on opting in — even before his stellar pitching performances in the World Series.

A player opts in if he feels he’s not going to get the same money he’s earning now. Price is a little over $30 million a year, which means he needs to produce about 3.75 WAR a season. (One WAR appears to be worth around $8 million a year.) His three-year average with the Red Sox is 2.9 according to FanGraphs, 3.0 according to Baseball Reference. A team signing him now would probably offer him around $24 million. It’s nice that he wants to win with Boston again, but it’s minor compared to a likely $6 million a year pay cut.



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Hamm Handed

Given all the pictures I see of Brodie Van Wagenen look like the one at the link, I’m starting to think the Mets hired him because he looks like John Hamm. Does this mean everyone in the Mets front office will be smoking?



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Losing Realmuto

J.T. Realmuto‘s agent announced on Tuesday that the catcher will not sign a contract extension with the Marlins:

Berry reasoned similarly to how I did when projecting the 2019 payroll: if the player won’t re-sign, then the team should deal him now while he’s at peak value and health so they can get maximum return for him.

The Marlins seem quite happy to trade players who don’t want to be on the team, as we saw with Christian Yelich last season. There were some who felt the Marlins did not get a very good haul for their trade chips, but part of that was telegraphing the fact that the team needed to reduce payroll. There is no such pressure this season. Realmuto is an excellent player at an important position, and teams should pay to dollar. The Marlins could wait until the July trade deadline to get the best deal if they don’t get the package they desire. If Miami does not get an excellent set of prospects in this transaction, something is wrong in the front office for real.



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Tuesday, October 30, 2018

In Praise Of Boring Sales Organizations

Over the last several weeks, I’ve seen a similar issue with 4 different companies.  On the surface, each seemed to have a very disciplined approach to developing their teams and driving performance.

Each spoke about the structured review process.  They had pipeline reviews, deal reviews, 1 on 1’s, and others.  I’d been asked to sit in on some of the reviews, helping the management team improve the results from these, as well as to help improve their coaching abilities.

Roughly, 80% of the scheduled reviews were cancelled.  Inevitably, something came up forcing the managers (mostly) and the sales people to cancel the reviews.  Some would be rescheduled, with many of those cancelled.  Some would not, the theory being, “We’ll cover the things we had planned to talk about in the next review…..”

For the few reviews I did observe, most were pretty mediocre.  Neither the managers nor the sales people really took the reviews very seriously.

These behaviors sparked my curiosity.  I started looking back a number of months.  It turned out more than 60% of the scheduled reviews had been cancelled.  Some deeper digging, showed lots of meetings were cancelled.  A “crisis” would arise, people would get diverted to that issue, cancelling regularly scheduled meetings.  In some cases, I suspect people were inventing crises, just to avoid meetings.

Assessing this data, I found:

  1. Their meeting discipline was really bad–probably a result of badly conducted meetings, where people felt they wasted their time.
  2. The managers were constantly shifting priorities as they moved from crisis to crisis.  This created problems with their people, the managers weren’t available, they were managing the crises.
  3. The managers behaviors started to be mirrored by the people.  They suddenly found themselves running around from crisis to crisis.  Not accomplishing a lot, but very busy.
  4. There was relatively no discipline in the organization.  Sales people tended to do their own thing, managers did theres.  They were constantly in crisis mode, there was a lot of wasted time, and while they were making their numbers, it was a constant struggle, and everyone was constantly shifting priorities.  One might have, also, made a claim they were underperforming their potential because of the lack of disciplined execution.

By contrast, high performing individuals and organizations have a different character.  They are relatively structured and disciplined.  While people are very busy, one gets a sense of disciplined and focused execution.  They recognize success has certain patterns, they seek to replicate those patterns.   They look like “well oiled machines.”

A lot of this performance starts with the examples manager set.  They have structured/disciplined approaches to reviews, pipeline, deal, 1 on 1’s and other reviews.  They have a regular cadence that they keep.  They rarely reschedule them.

Instead, the focus on building good habits.  Managers set the example with their review process.  Because they are paying attention to what their people are doing, coaching and developing them, performance is more consistent.  There are fewer crises, there is just quiet disciplined execution.

These high performing organizations actually tend to be very boring.

There are few great dramas, few crises.  There is just quiet, boring, disciplined execution.  People are doing more things right, more consistently–so the things that cause crises generally don’t happen.

This starts with management and their approach to the business, their personal discipline, their commitment to model the right behaviors, and their commitment to engaging their people in well conducted reviews, focused on providing their people the skills of disciplined execution.

It’s not very exciting, it’s quite boring.

Boring is good.

 



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Ratings Drop

I am somewhat surprised by the World Series Ratings drop.

Over five games, the 2018 World Series averaged 14.3 million viewers. That is a drop off of 23% compared to the 2017 average of 18.7 million. In fairness, the 2017 World series–which also featured the Dodgers–ran all the way to Game 7 so the comparison is an imperfect one. This year was also the least watched World Series since 2014, when the San Francisco Giants and the Kansas City Royals averaged 13.9 million viewers over seven games.

The 2018 World Series is thus far the fourth-least watched since 2010, with the most-watched being the Chicago Cubs versus Cleveland Indians series in 2016, which averaged 22.9 million viewers thanks to the Cubs ending their historic 100-plus year championship drought.

Game 5 was the most-watched game of the Series, however, averaging 17.6 million viewers. That is also up 29% over the viewership for Game 4.

Part of it is people like to watch deciding games, and there was only one of those in this series.

I also wonder how much of this has to do with the continued success of the Red Sox. Without the curse, are they seen as just another regional team? They pretty much dominate their World Series appearances, 12-3 in their four twenty first century championships. People used to tune in to see how they would blow their chance for a championship. Now they just blow through opponents.

There also was no Cinderella team this season. We’ve had a number of teams in the last 15 years break long droughts, starting with the Red Sox in 2004. Even though the Dodgers have not won a World Series in 30 years, they are not thought of in the same light as the Royals in 2015, or the Astros, Cubs, Giants, White Sox, and Red Sox ending very long droughts.



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Angels Hire for Health

The Angels hired Doug White to be their new pitching coach after his success as the Astros bullpen coach.

Angels pitchers, meanwhile, were 19th in baseball with a 4.15 ERA last season. The 805? innings logged by Angels starters was second-fewest of the 30 teams. The Tampa Bay Rays, who often used relievers to start games, got the least production from their starters.

White will be counted on to help an Angels team that had so many injuries to its pitching staff it used a franchise-record 35 pitchers to get through last season. His resume boasts a specialization in Z-Health, which is a method of training that enhances an athlete’s movement patterns.

It seems to me the Angels are focusing correctly on lowering their injury rate. What is Z-Health? This seems to be an even-handed review, but other web sites seem rather infomercial to me.



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Athletics To Become a Real Team

The Athletics extended the contracts of their front office and field managers on Monday. They also announced a plan to increase payroll. Billy Beane:

We’re gonna take a little more strategic view, looking over a longer period of time instead of just one year at a time, which I think is a good way to do it. And we’re having those conversations now. To give you a simple answer, yes we anticipate the payroll going up. …

I’m not trying to be coy or anything (about the precise amount). We’re having those discussions now, but it will certainly go up. And it will go up continually over the next year after year after year. We’ve already had that discussion. Now, how we approach it, we may want to look at it in a pool type of situation, like X amount of dollars over a five-year period, but those are all things we’re talking with John Fisher about, and myself and (David Forst). We’re having a meeting tomorrow on this exact subject.

With that comes the desire to build a new franchise identity by keeping players:

To that last point, there is one more thing Beane said that should be magic to our ears. Over the last couple years he’s begun to suggest that he’d like to see the A’s reduce the constant player turnover that has become their franchise identity, and instead begin to hold on to some star players long-term. He reiterated that desire on Monday: “We’ve had to turn things over (on past rosters) and we’re hoping those days are gonna end very soon.”

I have to believe that part of this is an owner who is less interested in developing real estate and more interested in developing a team. If the Athletics are going in this direction, it’s tough to use the, “We can’t succeed without a new stadium,” line. Maybe the good team should come first.



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“Just Give Me The Answers!”

There’s a disturbing trend in developing the capabilities of sales people.  It’s the focus on providing answers, rather than developing skills.

We see this manifested in all sorts of ways:

  1.  Increasing focus on scripting–whether it’s written or spoken communications.  This is often cloaked in interesting ways, “Tell me the questions I should ask….,” but sales people don’t know what to do with the answers.
  2. Managers “telling” people what to do, rather than coaching them in how to figure out what to do.
  3. Training focused more on being prescriptive, than developing skills.

In truth, too often, these are responses to what sales people are asking for.  It seems people just want answers to their problems/challenges in working with customers, rather than developing the skills and capabilities to do it themselves.

It’s a path to certain failure.  Each buyer, each customer, each situation is different—and dynamic.  It’s impossible to give sales people the answer to every unique situation they encounter every day.

And if we could, then we don’t need sales people, we can deploy a sales force of chatbots, which will be much more effective than human sales people.  But then there is the nagging issue with customers, the answers are less important, than the questions, or helping customer navigate their buying process.  So chatbots won’t do it, at least for some time.   But our own people, seeking answers, don’t know how to do this.

Some might say, “we’re giving our people the skills to do this.”  But as I assess their programs, what they are doing is programming their people with answers, not helping develop  skills.  Instead of developing skills to have conversations, we give them scripts, hoping the customer will follow the script.

What are skills?

The dictionary defines a skill as:  The ability to use one’s knowledge effectively and readily in execution or performance.  A learned power of doing something competently, a developed aptitude or ability.  Competent excellence in performance, expertness, dexterity.

If we expect our people to think, to engage customers in high impact conversations, we need to help them develop the skills to engage those customers—not give them the answers.

We need to recruit people who want to develop skills, not people who only want the answers.

Our training needs to be about skill development, not how to regurgitate what we have instructed them to say.

Stop giving people answers, give them the skills to figure things out.

 

 

 



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Monday, October 29, 2018

World Series Stats Links

From the Day by Day Database:

All Boston batters.

All Dodgers Batters.

All Boston Pitchers.

All Dodgers Pitchers.

Note that you can sort the above by any category.

Red Sox Team Batter Splits.

Dodgers Team Batter Splits.



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Free Agent Odds

Bovada (www.Bovada.lv) just posted odds on which teams are likely to sign which high quality free agents:

One thing I’ve wondered is if a team will sign Bryce Harper to play first base? After being good most of his career, he had a terrible year in the outfield in 2018. I wonder if he lost a step due to the horrific leg injury he suffered in 2017?

A team like the Yankees doesn’t need him in the outfield, but he’s probably much better than any option the Yankees have at first base. I suspect his defense would be really good there, and it might keep him healthier so his bat stays in the lineup. Harper was willing to play first base for the Nationals in 2018, so it would be a good way of fitting him on a team that doesn’t need an outfielder, but could use a big bat.

Where will Clayton Kershaw play game 1 of the 2019 MLB Season?

Los Angeles Dodgers 2/3
Houston Astros 15/4
Texas Rangers 15/4
Chicago Cubs 8/1
San Francisco Giants 8/1
New York Yankees 17/2
Cincinnati Reds 16/1

Where will Bryce Harper play game 1 of the 2019 MLB Season?

Philadelphia Phillies 1/1
Chicago Cubs 3/1
Washington Nationals 4/1
San Francisco Giants 15/2
New York Yankees 8/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 17/2
Boston Red Sox 15/1
Los Angeles Angels 15/1

Where will Manny Machado play game 1 of the 2019 MLB Season?

Philadelphia Phillies 3/2
Los Angeles Dodgers 9/4
New York Yankees 3/1
Miami Marlins 8/1
Los Angeles Angels 9/1
Atlanta Braves 14/1
Washington Nationals 14/1

Where will Josh Donaldson play game 1 of the 2019 MLB Season?

St. Louis Cardinals 6/5
Cleveland Indians 5/2
Philadelphia Phillies 5/2
Tampa Bay Rays 5/1

Where will A. J. Pollock play game 1 of the 2019 MLB Season?

Arizona Diamondbacks 3/2
Philadelphia Phillies 3/2
New York Mets 4/1
San Francisco Giants 4/1

Where will Craig Kimbrel play game 1 of the 2019 MLB Season?

Boston Red Sox 1/1
Atlanta Braves 9/4
Chicago Cubs 5/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 5/1
Philadelphia Phillies 5/1

Where will Dallas Keuchel play game 1 of the 2019 MLB Season?

Houston Astros 9/4
New York Yankees 9/4
Los Angeles Angels 12/5
Los Angeles Dodgers 13/2
Philadelphia Phillies 13/2
San Francisco Giants 13/2

Where will Patrick Corbin play game 1 of the 2019 MLB Season?

New York Yankees 1/1
Arizona Diamondbacks 2/1
Seattle Mariners 7/1
Washington Nationals 7/1
Los Angeles Angels 9/1



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Pearce MVP

Steve Pearce of the Red Sox received the 2018 World Series MVP award:

The well-traveled Pearce wound up as the World Series MVP on Sunday night after hitting two home runs that sent Boston over the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-1 in Game 5.

“Baseball’s a funny game,” he said. “The longer you stay in the game, great things can happen.”

For a guy who just kept on truckin’ around the majors, he now has something shiny to show for it — a bright red truck, presented to him on the infield dirt as a most unlikely MVP.

It was an impressive 16 plate appearances, as Pearce reached base eight times and all four hits went for extra bases. Although he was brought on to the team to hit left-handed pitching, most of his damage in the series came against right-handers. He was 2 for 2 with a walk in close and late situations.

The fact that any player can be the hero is one of the things that separate baseball from other sports.



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Best Batter Today

At the end of the 2018 season, the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings show Christian Yelich, Alex Bregman, Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, and Justin Turner occupying the top five. That is unlikely to change before opening day of next year. The scores will decay slowly over the winter, so that players who don’t start the following season drop quickly as others add to their scores. Since some players finished the season injured or released, decay rates will be different, so down the list some may fall a bit, but as the 2019 season begins, the top 20 should be intact.

The post-season may have hurt Manny Machado a bit. He finished the regular season in 13th place, a hair behind fellow young star Bryce Harper. The playoffs dropped him to 26th. He did not cover himself in glory on the big stage.



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Final Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date, completing the 2018 season.



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Sunday, October 28, 2018

Are You Learning Yesterday’s Skills For Tomorrow’s Buyers?

Every time I meet sales enablement and sales executives, I ask, “What are the critical skills you are focusing on training and developing your people on?

The answers are varied, but generally fall into very specific, and classic selling skills:  Qualifying, questioning, listening, prospecting, objection handling, closing, call planning, deal planning, account planning, time/territory management, establishing rapport, communications styles, and so on.

These skills are important, in fact they are table stakes for all professional sales people.

But they are yesterday’s skills and insufficient in working with tomorrow’s buyers.

Going back to those conversations with sales executives, I usually follow that initial question with, “What are you doing to train your people in curiosity, what about critical thinking and problem solving?  Have you considered project management, consensus building, facilitation, change management, systems thinking?  And then there is the perennial, business acumen.  It’s been on my list for decades, but I don’t see many organizations addressing this, despite tremendous resources being available.

By now, about 70% of the people are looking at me cross-eyed, inevitably thinking, “Those aren’t selling skills, what’s this guy talking about?

Hmmm, it’s interesting, those aren’t selling skills, but there are more than selling skills that are critical to being a high performing sales person.  Why are so many limiting their thinking to selling skills and not looking at the skills critical to sales success?

About 25% respond, “We’re struggling with things like value creation, communication, delivery.  Or they may site specific programs like Insight or Challenger Selling.”

These are important and can be game changing.  The problem is, without a foundation curiosity, critical thinking, consensus building, problem solving, and so forth, it’s really difficult to apply these approaches effectively.

Then there’s the 5%.  These are the organizations with consistent high performance.  These are the people looking at where the buyers are going–or where they need to be going.   These are the organizations that recognize customers struggle to buy, so they can create great value in helping the customers navigate their own problem solving/buying processes.

It’s no wonder that we see a widening gap in sales performance.  Year after year, the percent of people making plan declines.  Year after year, the chasm between buyers and sellers increases.

A large part of this is we are focusing on yesterday’s skills, but not developing the capabilities to create great value for tomorrow’s buyers.

If you are a sales enablement professional, or a sales executive, perhaps you need to rethink your priorities.  If you are a sales professional, committed to your own professional development, recognize that all the skills you need to be successful in selling are not selling skills. Look beyond these and start learning the skills critical to your success.

 



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Red Sox Win

The Red Sox beat the Dodgers 5-1 in game five to win the 2018 World Series. Chris Sale came on to pitch the ninth and struck out all three batters he faced, making them look bad in the process. With their fourth World Championship in 15 seasons, they now have the most titles in the century.

The team pitched well, hit well, and fielded well. It never felt like they were out of a game, and never let up on the pressure.

Congratulations to the Red Sox on a great, 108 win regular season and an 11-3 post-season.



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Dodgers in the Ninth

The Dodgers come into the ninth inning trailing the Red Sox 5-1. The Dodgers are scheduled to send Justin Turner, Kike Hernandez, and Manny Machado to the plate. The Red Sox need three outs to win the World Series.

Update: Chris Sale comes on to pitch the ninth!

Update: Turner falls behind 0-2. Turner swings and misses at a ball in the dirt, and is thrown out at first base. One down.



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Maybe the Dodgers Should Just Avoid the Eighth Inning

For the third game in a row, the a Dodgers reliever gives up a home run in the eighth inning. Pedro Baez gives up a solo shot to Steve Pearce, Pearce’s second of the game. Boston leads the Dodgers 5-1 as they get very close to a World Series title.



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The Other Side of the Trade-Off

J.D. Martinez homers leading off the seventh inning. It’s why the Red Sox will take his below average defense in the outfield. It’s the second time Kershaw allowed at least three home runs in a playoff game.

Boston leads the Dodgers 4-1.



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Insurance Betts

Mookie Betts breaks an 0 for 13 slump with a one-out home run in the top of the sixth inning. That gives the Red Sox an insurance run as they go up 3-1 on the Dodgers. That’s two home runs allowed by Clayton Kershaw in the game.



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Settled Down

Clayton Kershaw and David Price both allowed home runs in the first inning, but nothing since. Through five, the Red Sox lead the Dodgers 2-1. Kershaw allowed a total of three hits and no walks while striking out four. Price also allowed three hits to go with a walk, and struck out five. The Red Sox are doing a decent job of putting the ball on the bat against Kershaw.



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The Trade Off

David Freese hits a fly ball to deep rightfield, and occasional outfielder J.D. Martinez does not see the ball. It falls in for a triple, giving Freese half a cycle. That’s the price the Red Sox were willing to pay to get Martinez’s bat in the lineup.

Justin Turner grounds out hard to short, Freese holds, and he is on third with two out.

Update: Martinez has a tough time again, but catches a foul fly by Kike Hernandez to end the inning. At the end of three, Boston leads Los Angeles 2-1.



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Pearcing the Dodgers

Steve Pearce hits a two-run homer with one out in the first inning to put Boston up 2-0 on the Dodgers. It was a shot into the power alley in left-center. Pearce now has two home runs in the World Series and three in the post-season.



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Of Note

David Laurila’s Sunday note column is up with a nice story about Scott Radinsky learning to love analytics.

Radinsky gave examples of that salesmanship — we’ll share specifics in the coming week — including convincing Blake Parker to up his breaking ball usage, and getting Justin Anderson to better utilize his fastball. In each case, the data provided by Anaheim’s analytics department was delivered to Radinsky in “an awesome” manner. Just as importantly, it didn’t arrive heavy-handed.

“They cut through all the crap and got right to the meat and potatoes of what we needed,” explained Radinsky. “And I’d like to think we were smart about how we utilized it. Anyone who has been part of a baseball team for six months knows there’s more to it than just giving a guy information. You need to understand when it’s the right time to get in there, and when it’s time to back off. That’s a feel thing, and the front office had that feel. They weren’t down our throats every time a guy was struggling. They were always consistent with the communication, and the messages were pretty similar.”

There’s lots more great stories from the Peter Gammons of the internet.



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Playoffs Today

The Red Sox play the first of three potential clinching games as they face the Dodgers in Los Angeles Sunday night. With a three games to one lead in the series, one more win brings the fourth World Series trophy of the century to Boston. Chris Sale will try to close the deal, while Clayton Kershaw pitches to send the series back to Fenway Park.

Sale blew away batters this post-season with 21 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings. His control has not been as good as during the regular season, however, as he walked eight batters. He also allowed 11 hits, one a home run, for a BABIP of .333 (10 for 30). That compares to a .283 mark during the season. This strikes me as the after effects of his injury. He’s mostly very good, but is making more mistakes than usual. Against good offensive teams, those mistake cost him.

Kershaw appears to have figured out how to pitch at Dodger Stadium in the post-season. His last five post-season starts at home have been what we’ve come to expect from the big lefty. In 31 innings he struck out 31 batters, walked five, and allowed two home runs. Only 14 batted balls became hits. That led to a 1.16 ERA. Three times in those games he went at least seven innings. He may need to go the distance tonight, given how Boston pounded the Dodgers bullpen Saturday night.

Enjoy!



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Aging Audience

The people who watch baseball are old and getting older, but so are the viewers of most other sports. The average age of a television viewer of baseball is 57, up from 52 in the year 2000:

Don’t laugh, football fans, because it isn’t as if your sport is looking much better. While the average NFL viewer is 50, only 9% of the NFL’s audience is kids under 18. Blame devices and attention spans all you’d like, but NFL viewership dropped by 8% on average last year, with Sunday and Monday night games down 10% to 12%.

For the NFL, that average age is up six years since 2000. Hockey is even worse, with the average age at 33 in 2000, 49 years old today.

I’m guessing this is part demographics, part technology upheaval. There were simply a lot more people born in the early 1960s (the end of the baby boom) than in the 1970s. In other words, given the same rate of viewership per age, the center is going to be older when aggregated. On top of that, people do not watch TV the same way anymore. I don’t know how watching baseball on a streaming device is captured by television ratings. I may watch a MASN broadcast, for example, but I don’t see the MASN ads nor the MASN cut ins. It’s not the same television experience.

Still, this leaves me less worried about the sport. Maybe old people like me just have more time to watch.

Hat tip, Marginal Revolution.



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Best Batter Today

Justin Turner went 3 for 4 with a walk in a losing cause, moving him back into fifth place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He trails Christian Yelich, Alex Bregman, Anthony Rendon, and Mike Trout.



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Sunday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Saturday, October 27, 2018

Hernandez Homers

The Red Sox make the mistake of bring Craig Kimbrel into a non-save situation. He walks the first batter on four pitches, then Kike Hernandez homers to cut the Boston lead to 9-6.



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Brock … Holt

Brock Holt does what I think most batters should do against the shift, chop the ball down the line. With Justin Turner shifted over to the shortstop position Holt grounds a ball that would have been an out to the third baseman, and winds up with a double down the leftfield line. The Red Sox have the go-ahead run in scoring position with one out in the top of the ninth.

Update: Rafael Devers singles up the middle, Holt scores, and the Red Sox lead 5-4.



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Another Threat

The Dodgers put men on first and third with two out in the bottom of the eighth with Yasmani Grandal coming up to pinch hit. He’s facing Joe Kelly, who allowed two singles in the inning.

Update: Grandal gets ahead 2-1. He takes a strike, then swings and misses. The game goes to the ninth tied at four.



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High Leverage Pitcher

Kenley Jansen comes in to pitch the top of the eighth inning for the Dodgers. The Red Sox 2-3-4 hitters are up, so this is where the game can be won.

Steve Pearce fouls that plan, however, as he hits a one-out home run to tie the game.

Update: That’s two days in a row that Jansen comes in to pitch the eighth and gives up a home run. Sometimes taking pitchers out of their routine just doesn’t work.



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Hill Done

Hill issues a walk and records a strikeout to start the seventh inning, and he is done. He allowed one hit in 6 1/3 innings, walking three, hitting a batter, and striking out seven. He leaves with a runner on first base and a 4-0 Dodgers lead over the Red Sox.

Update: Scott Alexander comes on and walks Brock Holt, the first batter he faces. It turns out it’s the only batter he faces, as arsonist Ryan Madson comes in the game.



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Dodgers Threaten

David Freese was hit by a pitch leading off the bottom of the sixth inning. Kike Hernandez pinch runs, and Justin Turner moves him to third with a one-out double. The Red Sox issue an intentional walk to Manny Machado to face Cody Bellinger.



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Breaking up the No-Hitter

Christian Vazquez singles with one out in the top of the fifth inning for Boston’s first hit of the evening. Eduardo Rodriguez bats. That’s shows the fatigue level of the Red Sox staff. I would think in most siutations, Alex Cora would pinch hit here.

Update: Rodriguez looked afraid to bunt, squares but doesn’t offer at a pitch, and strikes out looking. Two down. Mookie Betts flies out to end the inning. Halfway through the game, still no score.



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End of Four

The Red Sox and Dodgers remain scoreless at the end of four innings. Rich Hill has yet to allow a hit, although he walked two and hit a batter. The Dodgers have two hits, both singles, and Eduardo Rodriguez walked just one. Rodriguez and Hill are both striking out batters, Rodriguez four batters, Hill five.

The good news is that the game is moving along at a decent clip.



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Walking Up the Hill

Rich Hill issued two out walks in each of the first two innings, but that’s it. He’s now walked 11 and struck out 13 in 12 1/3 innings in the 2018 post-season. There’s no score as the Dodgers come to bat in the bottom of the second inning.



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Playoffs Today

The Red Sox announded that Eduardo Rodriguez will start Saturday night in game four against the Dodgers and Rich Hill. Rodriguez pitched 4 1/3 innings in the 2018 post-season so far, striking out five. He did allow two hits and three walks, one of those a home run. He threw six pitches last night, but may be the most rested Red Sox starter. Hill is one of the few Dodgers who did not get into the game Friday night. He has been wild in the 2018 post season, striking out 10 in 10 1/3 innings, but walking nine. The Boston batters will be happy to take walks against him. Amazingly, he allowed eight hits to go with the nine walks, but only three runs. The opposition is just 2 for 12 with runners in scoring position, and seven of the eight hits against him have gone for singles.

Enjoy!



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Circling the Van Wagenen

It appears super agent Brodie Van Wagenen is set to become the Mets general manager. Joel Sherman points out the conflicts Van Wagenen may face:

Van Wagenen has been better at getting money from the Wilpons than just about anyone. Despite a general slowdown in the free-agent market, in his capacity as lead baseball agent for Creative Artist Agency (CAA), Van Wagenen the past two offseasons helped negotiate a four-year, $110 million pact for Yoenis Cespedes, a two-year, $17 million deal for Todd Frazier and a two-year, $16 million agreement for Jason Vargas.

But as part of the anger and frustration over the grinding market in general, Van Wagenen went against his normally reserved public persona to issue a statement last February alleging collusion in free agency and hinting at a spring training player boycott. “A fight is brewing,” he warned.

Now, though, he is about to join the other side of the fight. So, did he actually mean that the players were not getting enough? Or does he think management has smartly figured out how to contain costs and all he was doing in his former job was rightly advocating for his clients?

I’m going with the latter. It appears that Van Wagenen is a good negotiator, and maybe that’s what the Mets are looking for. I’d want someone who could build a farm system into a major league team.



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Embracing the Tie

The first game of the Japan Series ended in a tie:

Shortly after the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers finished up the longest game in World Series history Saturday morning, the championship series of professional ball in Japan got underway — and ended in a 12-inning tie.

The Hiroshima Carp and Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks played to a 2-2, 12-inning tie Saturday in the first game of the Japan Series.

In the Japan Series, games are called draws after 12 innings. If the series is tied after seven games, a Game 8 is played, and games continue until one team has won four games.

MLB used to allow ties in certain situations. Before lights, teams used to play late afternoon games in the middle of summer. Sometimes those games would go into extra innings and reach darkness, or the weather made it difficult to see or play. Any game like that having completed five innings would be called a tie, the stats would count, but the game would be replayed. Today, the games are suspended as resumed as soon as possible.



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Best Batter Today

The eighteen inning game took it’s toll on Justin Turner. His two for eight with a double drops him out of the top five to eighth in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Tommy Pham now follows Christian Yelich, Alex Bregman, Anthony Rendon, and Mike Trout. Max Muncy, however, moves up to 18th.

Pham spent a good amount of time early in the season near the top of the list, and his late surge after the trade helped him finish near the top.



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Playing to the Max

The Red Sox and Dodgers play 18 innings Friday night, the Dodgers coming out on top 3-2 as Max Muncy hits an opposite field home run off Nathan Eovaldi leading off bottom of the final frame. Both teams scored in the 13 inning, thanks in part to throwing errors. Scott Alexander‘s throwing error in the top of the 13th allowed the Red Sox to take the lead, but the run was earned as a subsequent Christian Vazquez double would have driven the run home anyway. That’s an official scoring decision, however, one does not know what would have happened in the absence of the error.

In the bottom of the 13th, Muncy walked, followed by two fly outs. On the second one, described as a foul out to third, Muncy tagged up and reached second. The video is on this page, showing Eduardo Nunez fallinng into the seats as he makes the catch. Puig then hit an infield single that Ian Kinsler threw away, and the Dodgers tied the game to keep it going.

It was the longest World Series game in history:

Maybe the best way to sum up the bizarre night at Dodger Stadium: Of the 50 players on both rosters, only four didn’t get into the game: Chris Sale and Drew Pomeranz for the Red Sox and Rich Hill and Hyun-Jin Ryu for the Dodgers. The 46 players used on both teams was a record for any postseason game. The Red Sox burned through a record-tying nine pitchers, including Eovaldi, the projected Game 4 starter who pitched the final six-plus innings — leaving the Red Sox without a starter for Game 4 until Alex Cora announces one Saturday afternoon.

The Red Sox are still up in the series 2-1, but the Dodgers knew they needed this one.

“This was a must win for us, 100 percent, that’s why we were grinding until the last out, until the last run came across the board,” Dodgers third baseman Manny Machado said.

The game featured a wild 13th inning when both teams scored on errors. The Red Sox scored in the top the frame when Brock Holt walked and took second on a wild pitch. Eduardo Nunez dribbled a ball between the pitcher’s mound and first base, but second baseman Enrique Hernandez couldn’t handle the flip from pitcher Scott Alexander as Nunez slid headfirst into the base and Holt scored as the ball trickled down the first-base line.

The last time a go-ahead run scored in extra innings in a World Series game was the infamous error from former Red Sox first baseman Bill Buckner in Game 6 in 1986 against the New York Mets.

Note that in the boxscore, the Red Sox keep switching up the outfielders. Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Mookie Betts would move from CF-RF to LF-CF for certain batters, with the weaker LF moving to RF. Every edge these teams could get they took. Clayton Kershaw pinch hit, and Austin Barnes, a catcher, pinch ran.

I wish I could have stayed up to watch. Luckily, at the video link above, there is a condensed version of the game.

The best news is there will be no sweep. There will be at least two more games this weekend.

Here is everyone who batter at least once in the game. Here’s everyone who threw a pitch in the game. Let’s not forget Walker Buehler‘s outstanding start, that helped make the tie possible.



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Saturday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Friday, October 26, 2018

Bellinger of the Ball

David Price comes in to pitch for the Red Sox in the bottom of the ninth, and Cody Bellinger sends the ball the opposite way for a single leading off. The Dodgers and Red Sox are tied at one, the Dodgers have the winning run on base.



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Jackie Jacks

Kenley Jansen comes on to pitch the eighth inning. He gets the first two batters, then gives up a home run to Jackie Bradley, Jr. Boston and Los Angeles are now tie at one. It’s the 10th RBI for Bradley in 2018 post-season, all with two out.



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Buehler, Buehler,….

Walker Buehler comes out to pitch the seventh inning and retires the Red Sox on a fly out and two strike outs. He sets a personal high at the MLB level with 108 pitches thrown. The Dodgers flew in the face of post-season pitching strategy, and it pays off with a 1-0 lead at the stretch.



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Manny Being Ramirez

Manny Machado hit a long fly ball, and watched it hit the wall in leftfield. He watched it so long, he wound up at first base instead of trying for second. That was a pretty egregious example of non-hustle. The Dodgers don’t score in the bottom of the sixth inning, but lead the Red Sox 1-0.



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Porcello Pulled

With two out and a man on first in the bottom of the fifth inning, Alex Cora takes Rick Porcello out of the game. The Dodgers lead the Red Sox 1-0. Cora does not double switch as he brings in Eduardo Rodriguez. Cora may be trying to get Dave Roberts to take out his lefty batters before the pitcher’s slot bats in the top of the sixth inning.



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Joc Jack

Joc Pederson gets the first hit for the Dodgers with two out in the bottom of the third inning, the ball leaving the park for a 1-0 Dodgers lead. He pulled the ball down the line high in the air in what has been a well pitched game so far.

Update: Justin Turner follows with a double to leftfield.

Update: That’s all the Dodgers get, but 1/3 of the way through the game they hold a 1-0 lead.



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Aaron Award Winners

J.D. Martinez and Christian Yelich take home the Hank Aaron Award in their respective leagues.

J.D. Martinez and Christian Yelich were prized pickups, and now they’ve both won MLB’s most prestigious offensive prize. On Friday, Martinez and Yelich were announced as the American League and National League winners of the 2018 Hank Aaron Award. A formal presentation was scheduled to take place prior to Game 3 of the World Series between Martinez’s Red Sox and the Dodgers, with Aaron in attendance.

Well deserved for both players.



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Probability Question

I received an e-mail from a friend:

Remind me: assuming for the sake of argument that the Dodgers have a 50% probability of winning each of games 3-7 if necessary, what is the probability, as of now, being down 2-0, that the Dodgers will win the WS? Does history correspond generally to this probability?

You can get this from the binomial distribution, and the answer is 0.1875. I didn’t know the actual percentage, but found this article by Cliff Corcoran at The Athletic:

After all, of the 38 teams that returned home down 0-2 in a World Series, 23 (60 percent) won Game 3, and 14 (37 percent) tied up the Series in Game 4, but just seven (18.4 percent) came all the way back to win the Series.

So it looks like assuming the teams are evenly matched leads to a pretty good prediction.



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Only Two Centerfielders

The Boston Red Sox sit Andrew Benintendi to keep J.D. Martinez‘s bat in the lineup against the Dodgers:

Martinez led the American League with 130 RBIs in the regular season and was second in both batting average (.330) and home runs (43). He’s hitting .333 with 13 RBIs in the playoffs.

Benintendi, hitting .283 in the postseason, went 4-for-5 in Game 1 against the Dodgers but 0-for-3 with two strikeouts in Game 2. The decision to sit Benintendi allows the Red Sox to keep ALCS MVP Jackie Bradley Jr. in center field and leadoff man Mookie Betts in right.

This is probably the best defensive alignment to keep Martinez in the lineup. When the three Bs are in the outfield, the Red Sox have three fast, skilled outfielders. Having just two is still great. Bradley and Betts can shade a bit toward leftfield to make up for Martinez’s lack of range. The Red Sox used to do this when Manny Ramirez played leftfield, and that worked out pretty well.



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“Touching The Customer 1 Time, Annoying Her 6 More Times!”

We all know the importance of reaching out to “touch the customer.”

We know it takes multiple touches across multiple channels.  Some data suggests it takes as many a 15 touches to get a customer to respond.  Other data shows we must spread those touches across multiple channels, for example phone (Yeah, that’s so old school but it works), email, Linkedin, etc.

We know the majority of sales people give up far to early, often after the first or second attempt.

But all this brings into question, “What is a touch?”

My friend, Mike Webster, relayed a great story.  He was speaking to a sales person who talked about his “touches.”  Mike’s observation was, “You’ve actually touched the person one time and annoyed her six more times!”

The reality of the majority of outreach programs I see match Mike’s observation.  We are only touching the customer once, the rest of our “follow-ups” are terrible.

Take a look at your own email.  How many prospecting notes do you have that have the subject line something like:  Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: I wanna sell you something….  Followed by the first line, “I’m following up on the email I sent you two days ago, which was a follow up on the email I sent you four days ago, which was a follow up of the email I sent you six days ago…..

OK, they aren’t literally that, but you get the idea.

Same with phone messages, “I’m following up on my call two days ago, which was a follow up of ……..”

This isn’t “touching the customer!”  Simply repeating the same message, saying exactly the same thing time after time is touching the prospect once and continuing to piss them off.

Touching a customer is about building a string of communications, it’s building a story to provoke a response and conversation.

Stories have beginnings, middles, ends.  Our “touch campaign” has to have beginnings, middles, ends.  Each touch builds on the others creating a more complete picture for the customer.  More importantly, each touch creates a different opportunity to find something which interests a prospect, provoking them to respond.

One of my favorite, and most simple, examples is “Sam,” from Dr. Seuss’ Green Eggs and Ham.

Sam persists in his prospecting:

Do you like green eggs and ham?

Would you like them in a boat?

Would you like them with a goat?

Would you like them in the rain……

Sam progresses through at least  12 alternatives, until he finally succeeds and finds the customer interest in green eggs and ham.

Imagine if Sam had used what most people call multi-touch prospecting:

Do you like green eggs and ham?

Did you get my message on green eggs and ham?

I’m following up on my previous calls about green eggs and ham…..  you get my point.

Multi touch prospecting is not about saying the same thing to the same person lots of times!  It’s building a story/journey and moving the prospect through that journey to find where the customer might have an interest.

Are you truly “touching your customer,” or annoying her repeatedly?

 



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