Saturday, November 14, 2015

Skill Versus Chance

Tom Tango posts on the topic of one-day fantasy games, and whether they are skill or chance. I think reason three for skill is a big one in baseball:

The minimum salary. Ah, that’s another source of skill. No matter how bad you are, every player costs at least 3000$. So, in terms of skill, you should NEVER select such a player (unless you are a hockey fan and have a really good reason to think this player is not a replacement-level fantasy player). Because these 3000$ players could very well be worth 3500$ or 3000$ or 1000$ or negative dollars. We don’t know, because they put in a 3000$ floor.

A $3000 first baseman starting against a weak pitcher in Colorado is the perfect guy to choose for one day. If you have access to batter versus pitcher data, you might want to avoid Mike Trout when he faces Sonny Gray.

A lot of this information is ubiquitous, however, so rather than skill, it just may be that the person who spends an hour selecting a fantasy team will do better on average than the person who spends five minutes.



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/1YaBpWr

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