The Rockies face a decision with Nolan Arenado as he heads into his final year of arbitration. He developed into a 5.5 WAR player, and at seasonal age 28 in 2019, he is still in his prime. If the cost of one WAR is $8 million to $9 million, he worth somewhere between $44 million and $50 million a season as a free agent. Even without the leverage of free agency, I find it difficult to believe that Arenado would settle for less than an average value of $35 million a year on a long-term deal with Colorado.
I would offer him $40 million a year for four years. That captures his prime plus a bit over. The $160 million give him security for life. If he plays well, he has another big payday in his early 30s. Even if he drops to a two or three WAR player, he could likely sign a five-year, $100 million deal.
We know the free agent landscape has changed, and clubs would like to go for higher average value for fewer years. This is an opportunity for the Rockies to move the game in that direction.
from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2P8ckf6
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