When Manny Machado signed his deal with the Padres, my rough calculation indicated that Machado received about $10 million per expected WAR over the life of the deal. Using the same calculation, averaging the fWAR and rWAR over the last three seasons, Bryce Harper does even better, coming in at $11 million per expected WAR.
Like Machado, Harper’s value is tough to pin down. FanGraphs has him at 11.3 WAR during the last three seasons, while Baseball Reference pegs him at 7.5 WAR. So his average is 3.13 WAR per season. I give him that for the next four years, then nine season taking it down 10% a year. The total comes in at 29.8 expected WAR.
I suspect both the Padres and Phillies see these two players as getting a bit better over the next two seasons, so by their calculations, they may be paying $9 million per expected WAR. that would mean they expect 33 WAR from Machado and 36 WAR from Harper.
from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2EEc0mv
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