Just to recap, Manny Machado agreed to a 10-year, $300 million dollar deal with the Padres today. I have not found the fine details, but there does appear to be an opt-out after five seasons.
When I evaluate a deal, I average the player’s WAR for the last three seasons, and then work forward from that. Once a player reaches age 30, I lower the expectation by 10%. Machado is tough to peg, and FanGraphs has him at 13 WAR in total the last three seasons, while Baseball Reference calculates he was worth 9 WAR. I split the difference, and assigned him 3.67 WAR for the next four seasons. Over the ten years of the deal, the Padres should expect to get about 30.1 WAR, meaning they spent about $9.96 million per WAR.
It seems like free agent WAR was coming in at between $8 million and $9 million per WAR this off-season, but the Padres blew that value out of the water. So everyone talking about the broken free-agent market appears to have been wrong. Teams and players are taking their time to make deals, and a small market, historically poor team made the biggest splash. Teams were bidding, as the White Sox tried to land the star infielder.
SanDiegoUnionTribune.com
Once complete, the seismic, unprecedented undertaking will amount to the richest free-agent deal in the history of American sports. Let that soak in for a minute. Chew on those words. Process what that signals and says.
This was wadding up the narrative, feeding it into a wood chipper and tossing the remains off of Sunset Cliffs.
Suddenly, San Diego pulsed. This meant miles more than a team simply landing a sports superstar. This felt, without hyperbole, transcendent. This was a sunny vacation destination screaming that all that condescending little-brother stuff just might end.
San Diego finally seems ready to put up its dukes and fight. The city, through a bold and brash move by its nationally maligned baseball team, shouted that it’s willing to tackle the kind of thing that only really happens in the Bronx, in the front offices neighboring Chavez Ravine, at Fenway Park or the corner of Clark and Addison in Chicago.
Now it’s up to the Padres to surround Machado with enough good talent for the team to actually wi.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2GRBdvd
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