The St. Louis Cardinals reached a deal with Carlos Martinez and guarantees him $51 million over the next five seasons.
With the move, the Cards now control Martinez through at least 2021 — his age-29 season. A power righty with two outstanding breaking balls and a useful changeup, Martinez carries an ace’s arsenal. He hasn’t quite reached that lofty status, but could well be on his way. Martinez owns a 3.02 ERA since the start of the 2015 season, so the results are already excellent. Though he hasn’t yet sustained top-end strikeout numbers — he owns 8.5 K/9 and 10.4% swinging-strike rate for his career — Martinez arguably has the capacity to do so. He also boosted his groundball rate to a robust 56.4% in 2016 and has a track record of limiting hard contact and home runs. If Martinez can continue to improve his change, and further boost his performance against left-handed hitters, he has a chance to deliver enormous value over the life of the contract.
Interestingly, the last two seasons, Martinez owns an ERA much better than his FIP. Even so, FanGraphs rate him as a three-WAR player, so if he just gives the Cardinals two seasons comparable to 2015-2016, St. Louis comes out ahead. Given that he induces the opposition to hit the ball into the ground a ton, the Cardinals will want to keep a very good defense behind him.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2kvjLln
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