The Cubs take on the Dodgers in a repeat of the 2016 NLCS. The Cubs held the home field advantage in 2016, the Dodgers in 2017. Here is a comparison of the teams on offense:
| Statistic | Chicago Cubs | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 5.07 (2nd) | 4.75 (6th) |
| Batting Avg. | .255 (6th) | .249 (11th-T) |
| OBP | .338 (1st-T) | .334 (3rd-T) |
| Slugging Pct. | .437 (4th-T) | .437 (4th-T) |
| Home Runs | 223 (3rd) | 221 (4th) |
| Stolen Base % | 67% (13th) | 73% (6th-T) |
The Cubs appear to have a large advantage over the Dodgers in terms of run generation. Note, however, that the Cubs offense was helped by Wrigley Field, which had a run park factor of 112.7, while Dodger stadium hurt scoring with a park factor of 98.5. That’s a big enough difference to suggest that the Dodgers might be a better offensive unit than the Cubs. Wrigley is a highly variable park, depending on the weather and direction of the wind. On most days it helps hitters, but as we saw in game four of the NLDS, the park can take away home runs with the best of them.
Otherwise, the teams are very similar offensively. To use an idea from the old Baseball Abstracts, batting average accounts for a small percentage of the offensive value of the teams. The produce similar OBPs, slugging percentages, and raw home run numbers. The Dodgers likely hit for a bit more power, since they produce the same slugging percentage from a lower batting average. Neither team is going to wow you with the ability to steal.
The pitching shakes out like this:
| Statistic | Chicago Cubs | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Avg. | 3.95 (4th) | 3.38 (1st) |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 4.29 (4th) | 3.58 (1st) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.9 (4th) | 9.6 (1st) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.4 (9th-T) | 2.8 (1st) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 26.8 (11th) | 25.5 (5th) |
| BABIP | .288 (2nd) | .284 (1st) |
Even with a park adjustment, the Dodgers pitch better than the Cubs, but the difference is probably closer to 0.2 runs than 0.7 runs. The Dodgers are clearly superior in two of the three-true outcomes, and fairly even in home runs.
The Dodgers don’t use great pitching to hide shoddy defense. They post the lowest BABIP allowed in the league. BABIP isn’t just defense, pitchers who strike out lots of batter often cause weak contact when batters do hit the ball. With a BABIP that low, however, fielders are getting to balls as well.
I also want to note that at least against Arizona, the hole in the fifth slot of the Dodgers lineup was plugged. In the NLDS preview, I pointed out that the poor performance from the five slot may have led to the Dodgers offense not being as efficient as it should be. They may have solved that problem.
I like the Dodgers in this series. They are at least as good as the Cubs on offense and have a deeper pitching staff. I’ll take that against the Cubs resilience, and give the Dodgers a 55% chance of winning the series.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2hGwFtk
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