Projecting Moustakas

John Viril likes the chances of Mike Moustakas posting big numbers in 2017:

Over on Fangraphs.com, Randy Holt pointed out that Mike Moustakas suffered from an unusually bad Batting Average Balls in Play (BABIP) in his short 2016 season. Further, Moustakas’ plate discipline continued to improve with a low 11.5% strikeout rate. Meanwhile, Moustakas’ hard-hit percentage zoomed to a career-high 37.4%. Even with the horrendous .214 BABIP, Moustakas managed a .801 OPS and a 110 OPS+ (10% better than a league average hitter).

That unusually low BABIP occurred despite Moustakas continuing to show that he had learned how to hit balls to the opposite field. While Moustakas is a guy that has posted low BABIPs throughout his career, his BABIP improved to .294 in 2015. That number is slightly below the .300 that most analysts consider average.

Moustakas also suffered from a death in the family as well as an injury.

If you look at his career, however, 2016 is much more in line with his career prior to 2015. Moustakas hit for a low BA, with a low OBP, and some power. Batted ball data show he reduced his likelihood of pulling the ball in 2016, something that he did carry over into 2016. In 2016, he started hitting fly balls with more authority, popping up less and leaving the park more.

I suspect, however, that going the other way stops working as well once the element of surprise is gone. Moustakas used to pull the ball a lot, and I suspect defenses played him that way. Once they knew he was using the whole field, the holes closed. He went back to being a low on-base hitter with some power.

Moustakas plays 2017 as a 28-year-old. He’s still at the top of his prime, so a return to his 2015 levels is quite possible. He adjusted in 2015 by going the other way. He adjusted in 2016 by improving his home run swing (in a small sample). Pitchers and defenses adjust, too. We’ll see if Moustakas can stay one step ahead of the competition. I would guess he posts a season better than his career averages, but not equal to his 2015 campaign. Musings Marcels has him at .258/.320/.436.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2iPzl75