Hosmer Breaks Collusion

Eric Hosmer agreed to a deal with the San Diego Padres late Saturday night:

The average annual value of the eight-year deal is $18 million, the largest monetary commitment in Padres history.

The Padres had said they would be creative. The $144-million contract is believed to be front-loaded, which might make the opt-out more attractive for Hosmer.

The signing will push first baseman Wil Myers, whose six-year, $83 million deal signed in 2017 was the team’s biggest contract ever, to the outfield. Myers, who played with Hosmer briefly in Single-A while in the Royals’ system, has said he would be happy to move if it meant the Padres got Hosmer.

It looks to me that the Padres are paying Hosmer about $9.3 million per WAR. He is going to play his age 28 season, which means the Padres get two years of his prime. He averaged 2.5 WAR over the last three seasons. I’m giving him that value the first two years of the contract, then 10% less each season over the last six seasons for a projected WAR of 15.5 over the eight years. The Padres are paying more upfront, to encourage Hosmer to play well before the opt-out. This is smart, as Hosmer’s value is volatile year to year. (The opt-out is after the fifth year.)

Hosmer is not the traditional slugging first baseman. His skill set was well suited to Kansas City, and San Deigo plays in a park that limits home runs. This strikes me as a great signing for both the player and the team.

It also pretty much blows the collusion argument out of the water. I doubt the Padres would have paid this much if there wasn’t competition for the player, or if they didn’t think he was a key piece to winning.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2CtOxjm