The defending World Series champions from Houston travel to Boston to start the ALCS on Saturday. Two super teams go head-to-to head in what may be the best series of the post-season. First a look at how the offenses compare in the American League.
| Statistic | Houston Astros | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 4.92 (5th) | 5.41 (1st) |
| Batting Avg. | .255 (4th) | .268 (1st) |
| OBP | .329 (4th-T) | .339 (1st) |
| Slugging Pct. | .425 (6th) | .453 (1st) |
| Home Runs | 205 (7th) | 208 (6th) |
| Stolen Base % | 73% (7th) | 80% (1st-T) |
This is how the teams rank on the pitching and defense side.
| Statistic | Houston Astros | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Avg. | 3.11 (1st) | 3.75 (3rd) |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 3.30 (1st) | 3.99 (2nd) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 10.4 (1st) | 9.6 (3rd) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 2.7 (3rd) | 3.2 (9th) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 20.9 (1st) | 21.4 (3rd) |
| BABIP | .284 (3rd) | .295 (6th-T) |
The Red Sox ranked higher in every batting category, score half a run more per game than the Astros. The Astros ranked higher in every pitching category, allowing 0.7 fewer runs per game than the Red Sox. So the series features an impressive offense against an equally impressive pitching staff, and that’s just the Red Sox pitchers against the Astros batters! The Red Sox batters and Astros pitcher will that that battle to another level.
The heart of that battle will be over strikeouts. The Astros pitchers struck out over 50 more batters than any other AL team. The Red Sox batters recorded the fourth fewest Ks in the AL. Often time a high strikeout staff can hide a poor defense, but the Astros were third in the AL in BABIP allowed, so fielders were not letting balls fall for hits. Even if the Red Sox put the ball in play against the Astros, the Houston defense will stop some of the hits.
Will good pitching stop good hitting? I expect the games will be close. Fenway Park will work to the Red Sox advantage. I give the Red Sox a 55% chance of winning the series as they limit their strikeouts, and gets some ball four calls due to their season long selectivity. It should be a lot of fun.
from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2CH700L
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