Thursday, October 4, 2018

2018 ALDS Preview, Yankees Versus Red Sox

The Yankees won the AL Wild Card game to earn the right to take on the Red Sox. It’s a match-up of the top two offenses in the AL. The following table looks at how they reached that level.

Team Offense, (AL Ranks)
Statistic New York Yankees Boston Red Sox
Runs/Game 5.25 (2nd) 5.41 (1st)
Batting Avg. .249 (8th) .268 (1st)
OBP .329 (4th-T) .339 (1st)
Slugging Pct. .451 (2nd) .453 (1st)
Home Runs 267 (1st) 208 (6th)
Stolen Base % 75% (5th-T) 80% (1st-T)

 

The Red Sox offense is tougher to shutdown. The Yankees are a low batting average team with a that draws walks and hits home runs. If the opposition shuts down the home runs, batters don’t advance much on the walks. If the opposition shuts down the walks, the home runs don’t drive in as many runs.

The Red Sox do all aspects of offense well. Shut down their home runs, and they get plenty of other hits, and tons of doubles and triples. Shut down their walks, they can still get on base with hits. With the Yankees, an opponent can try to shut down an aspect of their game. With the Red Sox, opponents need to find a way to shut down their big hitters, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez.

All in all, they are fairly evenly matched.

Team Pitching, (AL Ranks)
Statistic New York Yankees Boston Red Sox
Earned Run Avg. 3.78 (5th) 3.75 (3rd)
Runs Allowed/Game 4.13 (5th) 3.99 (2nd)
Strikeouts per 9 IP 10.1 (2nd) 9.6 (3rd)
Walks per 9 IP 3.1 (5th-T) 3.2 (9th)
Home Runs per 200 IP 24.3(4th) 24.1 (3rd)
BABIP .302 (11th) .295 (6th-T)

 

As with the offense, both teams trot out good pitching, but the Red Sox are just a bit better. New York wins two of the three-true outcomes, striking out batters at a higher rate while issuing fewer walks. The Red Sox lower ERA and runs per game comes from a better ability to turn batted balls into outs. Boston has a solid defense, while the Yankees have some holes.

Boston won the season series 10-9. They are fairly evenly matched, with the Red Sox getting my nod due to home field advantage and more diverse offense.



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