Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Going with the top ten today, as there are only two games.

0.276 — Justin Turner batting against German Marquez.
0.273 — Christian Yelich batting against Jose Quintana.
0.272 — Matt Kemp batting against German Marquez.
0.271 — Manny Machado batting against German Marquez.
0.267 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.266 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jose Quintana.
0.264 — David Freese batting against German Marquez.
0.250 — Javier Baez batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.249 — Albert Almora batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.249 — Yasiel Puig batting against German Marquez.

Turner is 2 for 11 career versus Marquez, but with just one strikeout.

Note that Chacin is not the official starter. If Milwaukee announces someone else and I have time, I’ll try to rerun these numbers.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.267, 0.717 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.273, 0.701 — Christian Yelich batting against Jose Quintana.
0.276, 0.698 — Justin Turner batting against German Marquez.
0.266, 0.694 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jose Quintana.
0.272, 0.692 — Matt Kemp batting against German Marquez.
0.271, 0.688 — Manny Machado batting against German Marquez.
0.249, 0.684 — Albert Almora batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.250, 0.682 — Javier Baez batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.236, 0.679 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Walker Buehler.
0.264, 0.673 — David Freese batting against German Marquez.

Yelich and Turner tie for consensus first choice. I might go with Yelich and Murphy due to playing in Wrigley Field.

There will be a post-season beat the streak contest with the chance to win $2000.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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