The Indians going up two games to one in the series makes them very slight favorites to win the series. Based on the Cubs probability of .614 of winning any individual game, The Cubs have a 0.499 chance of winning three of the last four games, while the Indians have a .501 chance of winning two. The Cubs were down 2-1 to the Dodgers and won the series in six games. Cleveland only lost two games this entire post-season.
I am somewhat surprised that Ryan Merritt is not getting a start in this series, given the injury to and struggles of Trevor Bauer. Like Josh Tomlin, Merritt walks very few batters (in fact, none at the major league level), and that is a very good strength against the Cubs. Of course, Merritt could be the first pitcher out of the pen if a starter blows up early, but the game may be over by then.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2dQWjwz
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