Assuming the probability of the Cubs defeating the Indians in any single game is 0.614, here are the probabilities of the various outcomes:
- Indians win in six: 0.386
- Indians win in seven: 0.237
- Cubs win in seven: 0.379
The Indians have a 62.3% chance of winning the series. Note that if the teams were evenly matched, that would be 75%.
Note, too, that by this method, the Indians came into the series with a 25% chance of winning. From running prediction models for Beat the Streak this year, the best hitters on any given day had about a 75% of getting a hit, or a 25% chance of failure. It was not unusual for them to fail.
Maybe I’m underestimating the Indians. The way Terry Francona uses the bullpen may have moved the team closer to even, but Cleveland is still using their four and five starting pitchers. I think the probability is right, but Cleveland is on the verge to beating the odds.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2dUW6se
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