Playoffs Today

With a three games to one lead in the best of seven series, the probability of the Indians winning the series stands at 77%. That is assuming the Cubs have a 61.4% chance of winning any individual game. The Indians winning this series might very well be their revenge for 1954. That year, the Indians went 111-43, a .721 winning percentage, while the Giants came in at 97-57, .630. A Log5 analysis shows that the Indians would have been expected to score 3.69 runs per game against the Giants, and the Giants 3.52 R/G against the Indians. That would give Cleveland a .523 probability of winning any game, and a .55 probability of winning the World Series. The Giants swept the Indians.

The teams were closer than the standings indicated. The Giants were right on their Pythagorean win estimate, while the Indians were seven games better than their estimate. This season, the Cubs were -4, while the Indians were +3, so again, there is a seven game swing in the standings in favor of the Indians. That’s another reason they were such long shots.

Maybe it is the manager and the coaching staff. Terry Francona certainly threw the book out for the post season. Joe Maddon, however, is just as innovative, and just as good managing his personnel as he is managing at a personal level. I suppose Maddon could have used Aroldis Chapman in the fifth inning Saturday night to keep the game closer.

Sunday night, Cleveland sends “Pinky” Trevor Bauer to the mound against Cubs ace John Lester. Bauer’s stats have been as ugly as his lacerated pinky since the injury, with four walks and six hits in 4 1/3 innings. I will be impressed if he goes five innings in game five. Lester pitched great overall in his four post-season starts this year. He was a bit wild against Cleveland in game one, which cost the Cubs the win. I like this match-up for the Cubs.

If it’s any solace to Cubs fans, this series reminds me of the 1996 NLCS between the Cardinals and the Braves. The Cardinals got out to a three games to one lead on the Braves. I remember looking at the remaining pitching matchups, John Smoltz versus Todd Stottlemyre, Greg Maddux versus Alan Benes, and Tom Glavine versus Donovan Osborne and thinking, “The Braves have the Cardinals right where they want them.” I like Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks on my side if I need a three game sweep.

Enjoy! This could be a very big night for Cleveland.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2dT8by6