Thursday, January 31, 2019
Robinson at 100
I have an Alexa at work, and everyday I wish it a good morning. The device replies with a fun fact for the day. Today it announced that this is the 100th anniversary of Jackie Robinson‘s birth. The New York Times celebrates with some photographs of the legend.
I especially like the one of Robinson in his UCLA football uniform. A few years ago my dad and I were talking about Robinson, and dad mentioned that he was a fan of Robinson’s when he was playing college football. I had not realized that Robinson was that well known at the time, but it makes sense since college football was immensely popular at the time.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2DOv553
Beaufort Landing at Hampton Cove
Beaufort Landing by Polygon Homes is a new townhouse development located at Hampton Cove in Delta. This project will offer a special waterfront collection of 124 executive 3 & 4 Bedroom Townhomes in the Charming Town of Ladner. These three and four bedroom homes offer charming seaside-inspired architecture and a variety of floorplan options. Every detail is thoughtfully designed to give you places to gather and share, and spaces for everyone to enjoy peace and quiet.Nestled between a marina and a golf course, walking and biking trails surround the neighbourhood, and a beautiful new riverside linear park will give residents a natural place to explore their own backyard.
The post Beaufort Landing at Hampton Cove appeared first on Vancouver New Condos.
from Projects – Vancouver New Condos http://bit.ly/2Uzb8ol
YouTube Video Updates
As mentioned recently, one of my goals for 2019 is to bring my old YouTube channel back to life. It’s still a work in progress, but I’m happy to say that I’ve uploaded eight videos in January. That’s more than I did in all of 2018. I hope to keep the momentum going, but first let me provide some additional information regarding the two latest videos.
Neck Training with Bands
Following a recent band training video, I received several questions about neck training. With that in mind, I created the follow up video below. Yet, since sharing the update, I am continuing to receive questions about what size bands to use.
Personally, I am using a 41-inch medium band from Iron Woody Fitness, but I’d be more likely to suggest a small or mini band for neck training. I just happened to have the medium band out when creating the video. You really do not need much resistance for this exercise though.
Low-Tech, High-Effect Power Training
I also recently shared a power training video where I demonstrated a variety of low-tech tools. A few of the tools are commercial, while the majority are homemade. First, I’ll share the video, and then provide links with additional information regarding the equipment.
Portable Landmine – I’ve seen loads of questions come in about the first exercise. I’m performing that movement with a portable landmine
Heavy Medicine Ball – As for the monster sized medicine ball, it is homemade. You can find a past entry about it here.
Throwing Bag – The large bag that I’m seen throwing approximately 35 seconds into the video is also homemade. Refer to this past entry for additional information.
Tornado Ball – The crude looking tornado ball has also been featured on the blog before. You can find instructions on making your own here.
Monster Tire – Lastly, the monster tire used for flipping and as a sledgehammer and medicine ball rebounder was acquired for free. Within this entry, you’ll find information about how to acquire and use a similar tire.
Final Thoughts
In summary, I plan to continue updating my YouTube channel regularly. I’ll also be sharing similar videos to Facebook and abbreviated versions to Instagram. If there’s anything in particular that you’d like to see, feel free to message me with suggestions.
+++++
“Every day, you reinvent yourself. You’re always in motion. But you decide every day: forward or backward.” – James Altucher
The post YouTube Video Updates appeared first on RossTraining.com.
from RossTraining.com http://bit.ly/2WyuOKM
Always a Superstar
Bill James tackles the question, “Would Babe Ruth be a superstar today?” Although Ruth is the example, the question applies to any superstar of any era. Bill develops a model for the standard deviation of talent in leagues, something that is tough to measure. The model starts with assigning random values of talent to players, forming teams from those players, and leagues from those teams. From that he derives the standard deviation of the talent of teams:
Given a sample of 2 million “players” with an average of .500, the standard deviation of skill level was .288, actually .288573, if you need to know.
Let us assume that each fifteen players, generated at random, represent a team. What, then, is the standard deviation of skill level for teams?
It is .068.
Now that’s a really interesting figure. When I saw that figure, I realized that I would have to publish the study.
Why is that a really interesting number? Some of you already know.BillJamesOnline.com
Because that’s almost exactly what the standard deviation of winning percentage for teams actually is. Over the last five years (2014 to 2018) the standard deviation of winning percentage for teams is .070.
So the model looks pretty good, and league standard deviation comes out at .017.
In other words, the talent in the league changes little over time. If you drop a superstar from one era into a league, he’s very likely to be a superstar in that league.
Tom Tango pretty much confirms the math in the comments, using a different distribution of player talent, but getting pretty much the same results.
I wrote recently that I always think the greatest player ever is always playing today. I still think that is true, as players in general are bigger, faster, and stronger. Maybe, however, they are not as much better as I previously expected.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2Sg0hlv
Wednesday, January 30, 2019
What’s The Most Pressing Part Of The Sales Process Today?
Recently, I was having a conversation with a good friend and colleague. He asked me the question, “Dave, what to you think is the biggest problem area for B2B sales people in generating business today?”
I’m a little slow, I asked, “George, what do you mean?”
He responded, “Well if you look at much of the press and social media, it’s prospecting or top of the pipeline, lead to opportunity conversion…..”
“But,” he went on, “some say it’s the inability to navigate the selling/buying process on qualified deals….”
“Others say it’s the inability to articulate and defend a differentiated value proposition…..”
He continued, “Some think it’s all about ABM, account planning and development….”
“Which of those do you think is the single most important thing to drive huge improvements in sales results?”
After I thought about it, I responded, “George, the real issue is you have to do all of them, all the time! Anytime your focus becomes unbalanced, for example you spend a disproportionate amount of time on the top of the pipeline, it will ripple through and impact performance across everything.”
George, pushed back on me, “Dave, you are really out of alignment with most of the thinking out there. Look at all these ‘sales experts’ saying tope of the pipeline prospecting is the single most important thing for sales right now?”
I don’t disagree with George. Many friend and colleagues focus most of their effort on the top of the pipeline. Most of the pipelines I look at are anemic, people need more opportunities, so prospecting seems to be in need of a lot of attention.
But then, one must ask the question, “Why are our pipelines so anemic?” It may be that we have lousy deal win rates, let’s say 10%. That means, if we need to close 50 deals to make our number, our pipeline has to have 500 deals. That’s a lot deals, trying to fill the pipeline, knowing you may have to prospect 10 potentials, to qualify 1 means you have to prospect 5000 potentials.
You have to have really good prospecting skills and devote a huge amount of time to prospecting to try to keep that pipeline filled–then you wonder if you have enough time to work those 500 deals in the pipeline. Prospecting is a huge issue, in this case. And it’s something that you have to continue doing every day, every month, every quarter, every year.
But what if we looked at it differently, what if we chose to solve a different problem rather than prospecting to keep the pipeline filled. What if we focused on win rates? What if by some magic, we could get win rates up to 50%. That means we only need 100 deals in our pipeline, and we would only need to prospect 1000 potentials. Prospecting is still important, but we don’t have to go for the numbers, we are likely to do a higher quality job of prospecting, making more out of each opportunity we qualify.
Or if we could defend value more effectively, reducing our discounting, improving our win rates. Then by being better at deal execution, I need a smaller pipeline, and don’t need as much prospecting to keep a balanced funnel.
Or let’s go back to the original case, where I have a 10% win rate. Think of the opportunities we are squandering and the opportunity cost to our companies because the win rate is so low. And one might surmise, if you are that bad at managing qualified deals, then you probably will suck at prospecting as well.
See, the problem with much of this thinking is that it addresses the obvious issue, with the obvious solution. For example, anemic pipelines need more prospecting. But it treats these issues in isolation, and that leads to flawed diagnosis and thinking.
Sales is not a job where I can do part of it some days or just the parts I like. If I’m to be successful, I have to do the whole job, all the time.
In selling, everything we do is connected with everything else. One cannot isolate one area, saying this is the most important thing to focus on. We have to constantly look at all aspects, of the job, trying to figure out how best to tilt the numbers in our favor.
Sorry I couldn’t do better George, but it’s all important.
Afterword: To better understand how all the pieces/parts of selling fit together, email me for a free copy of our Sales Execution Framework.
from Partners in EXCELLENCE Blog — Making A Difference http://bit.ly/2Si7mCf
Authenticity
Authenticity has become a buzzword tossed around social media too casually. We aspire to be authentic, we claim we are authentic. Or, at least, I’ve never met someone who claims to be inauthentic–though I suspect many of those who claim authenticity but are actually inauthentic.
What is authenticity? To paraphrase Justice Potter Stewart, I know it when I experience it.
Sometime, I think we confuse authenticity with our style or our personal branding. We may present ourselves a certain way, we may have a persona we present to others, for example the language we use, how we dress, the enthusiasm or manner in which we communicate to others.
In fact, virtually all the elements of style or personal branding, probably aren’t good surrogates for authenticity. Authentic and inauthentic people can present themselves with the same passion or excitement or even conviction. They can use similar language, they can act in similar ways. They can both appear to be equally sincere or insincere.
I don’t believe those are indicators or authenticity. For example, we tend to associate being passionate about something as authentic. Yet an inauthentic person can present themselves with the same passion.
Authenticity is really about character, it is about that which underlies what an individual says or does. It is about who we really are, not necessarily who we want people to believe we are.
Inevitably, when people try to portray themselves in a manner that is inconsistent with who they really are, it becomes a challenge to both the person in sustaining the facade, and to those around the individual who see the cracks, the inconsistencies–perhaps coming to not trust that individual.
I think one of the foundations of authenticity is personal mastery. As Senge comments in the Fifth Discipline, “Personal mastery is the discipline of continually clarifying and deepening our personal vision, of focusing our energies, of developing patience, and of seeing reality objectively.”
, “Personal mastery is the discipline of continually clarifying and deepening our personal vision, of focusing our energies, of developing patience, and of seeing reality objectively.”
The degree to which one seeks to be authentic, is impacted by their continued quest to learn and develop. It is impacted by their ability to be open to differing points of view, constantly trying to see things and people for what/who they are, not what want them to be.
Stephen Joseph summarizes qualities of authentic and inauthentic people in his Psychology Today article:
Authentic people:
- Have realistic perceptions of reality.
- Are accepting of themselves and other people.
- Are thoughtful.
- Have a non-hostile sense of humor.
- Are able to express their emotions freely and clearly.
- Are open to learning from their mistakes.
- Understand their motivations – they are true to themselves.
By contrast, inauthentic people:
- Are self deceptive and unrealistic in their perceptions of reality.
- Look to others for approval and to feel valued.
- Are judgemental of other people.
- Do not think things through clearly.
- Have a hostile sense of humor.
- Are unable to express their emotions freely and clearly.
- Are not open to learning from their mistakes.
- Do not understand their motivations — their defensiveness and self deception prevents them from being true to themselves.
Clearly, each of us has elements of authenticity and inauthenticity, which is why the concept of continuous focus on personal mastery is so important if we choose to seek authenticity.
But I am left with one question, “Is an authentic person necessarily a ‘good’ person?”
Afterword: My thanks to Keenan for stirring up my thinking about this.
from Partners in EXCELLENCE Blog — Making A Difference http://bit.ly/2RVY2EG
Tuesday, January 29, 2019
W63 Mansion On Vancouver’s Westside
W63 Mansion by Hansen Pacific is a new condo development located one block from Winona Park, on Vancouver’s westside. This project will offer a boutique collection of thoughtfully designed 1, 2 and 3-bedroom homes. W63 Mansion provides a tranquil westside lifestyle on South Cambie’s most beautiful block.
The post W63 Mansion On Vancouver’s Westside appeared first on Vancouver New Condos.
from Projects – Vancouver New Condos http://bit.ly/2sSBjuf
The Buyer’s Journey, One Step At A Time
Most sales people focus on the outcome of the deal. They want to get to the close and an order as fast as possible. Managers constantly reinforce this rush to completion in their “coaching conversations,” by asking, “When are we going to get this deal?” or “We need this to close this quarter!”
Everything we do is focused on jumping to the end of the buying process. We start pitching our solution before we even understand what the customer is trying to achieve. We try to present the value the customer might get, before we understand what the customer values.
We do what we do almost independently of the customer’s buying journey, as a result, too often we get out of step with the customer. We want the customer to be in one place of their buying journey (making a decision), inevitably the customer is at a completely different place in their journey.
The more we are out of step with the customer, the greater the chasm we create between the customer and us. As a result, our probability of success plummets.
Simplistically, if we look at a classic buying stage model, for every stage of misalignment, our probability of winning reduces by 20-25%. For example, in a 3 stage process, if the customer is in stage 1 (problem determination, needs identification) and we are in stage 3 (presenting our solution), our probability of winning is reduced by 20-50%!
The customer has to go through all the steps. In fact, they will wander, they will need to go back, retracing their steps. They will get lost, perhaps not knowing what the next step is.
We create the greatest value with the customer when we are aligned with them. When we are in lock-step with them, helping them move through their buying journey–step by step.
They need to go through all the steps, even though we want them to skip to the end. It’s part of their learning process, it’s how they align themselves around what they want to achieve, how to do it, why they are doing it in the first place.
The more steps they skip (and they may be tempted to skip steps), the greater risk they create for themselves–either in making a decision or in implementing a solution.
It’s the buyer’s journey, we have to be prepared to navigate it with them. If we are to be successful, if we are to create the greatest value at every step of their journey, we have to be helping them at each step, we have to help them navigate these steps as effectively as they can, we have to help them move from step to step as rapidly as they are capable.
Too often, we focus on our journey and are not prepared to accompany the customer on theirs.
from Partners in EXCELLENCE Blog — Making A Difference http://bit.ly/2Uk9E14
Yelich Speaks
Christian Yelich sits down to talk with NY Times reporters. Yelich is interesting throughout:
Every hit almost feels like a miracle because pitchers are throwing so hard. Do you ever sit back and think, This is a really freakish skill I have?NYTimes.com
Sometimes it feels a lot harder than other times. There’s times when you’re in the on-deck circle or on the bench and you’re like: ‘I have no shot. I don’t know how I’m going to do this but I’ve got to figure it out.’ And other times you’re more locked in and it doesn’t feel as hard. It’s the same feeling every spring training when the pitchers are throwing their bullpen or live batting practices and you’re like” ‘Oh man, this might be the year I go 0 for 500. I don’t know how I’m going to do this.’ And then you get back to the process. I feel like, from the side or in the dugout, this guy is throwing is so hard. And then when you get in there, it’s not really what you think it is because you’re so used to it. It just slows down every day when you’re in there.
I also like his take on OBP and batting average, which is that getting on base is very important, but getting on base with hits is better.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2S8Fu3v
Monday, January 28, 2019
Pitchers and Batted Balls
The always interesting Tom Tango begins a series on how much influence the pitcher has on a batted ball.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2MB1jn5
I’m 42
I saw the picture that accompanies this article on MLB celebrating the 100th anniversary of the birth of Jackie Robinson through the 2019 season, and thought, “Are all the players going to wear 42 every day?” It’s really a series of events in honor of the legend.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2sTR58k
Doing What We’ve Always Done, When Everything Else Has Changed
I’m constantly amazed conversations I have with otherwise smart people.
Usually, they start with some sort of challenge they are having:
- We aren’t growing at the rate we need to grow.
- We aren’t hitting out numbers.
- The markets have changed dramatically.
- Our competition has changed.
- Our customers are changing.
- Our budgets are smaller, we don’t have the resources we used to.
There are number of issues people identify. Once they have done that, I ask, “What are you doing about those things?”
Usually, there’s a long pause in the conversation. Sometimes people say:
- We’ve upped the pressure on our people to work harder.
- We’ve increased activity levels.
- We are introducing new technologies and tools to get our people to be more productive.
- We’re doing more training, building the skills of the people.
- We’ve asked marketing to do a lot more.
Usually, these responses all have the same thing in common, they are doing more of what they have always done, hoping for a different outcome. Whether it’s more volume, higher velocity, more intensity, the focus is always on doing more of what they have always done, better.
At some point that breaks down. The things we have always done, perhaps the things that have become habits, no longer serve us. They are no longer as effective as they used to be.
I’m constantly amazed, while everything around them is changing, while what sales professionals do is drive their customers to change; too many sales people and leaders are doing the same things and not recognizing the need to change.
When what we do no longer seems to be working or isn’t effective, isn’t it time to change?
from Partners in EXCELLENCE Blog — Making A Difference http://bit.ly/2RRWLyq
Sunday, January 27, 2019
Magowan Passes
Former Giants owner Peter Magowan died of cancer Sunday. He was 76 years old.
ESPN.com
“The Giants family, the entire Bay Area and the game of baseball lost a man whose passion and loyalty to his favorite team and beloved community made it possible for all of us and future generations to experience the magic of Giants baseball in San Francisco forever,” Giants president and CEO Larry Baer said. “Peter was my mentor and dear friend, and I will forever be grateful for his guidance, support and love. His legacy will be carried on by all those he inspired.”
M.C. O’Connor a Raising Matt Cain remembers Magowan fondly:
RaisingMattCain.blogspot.com
But if I could have talked to the man, even for the briefest moment, I would have said those very words: thanks for everything. Magowan put the Giants back on the map after they nearly fell off forever.
My thoughts go out to his family, friends, and fans.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2MCEWgX
Baseball is Always Broken
I saw this Dylan Hernandez article about Stan Kasten speaking to the fans, and two things struck me. First, this quote from Kasten about avoiding the luxury tax:
The Dodgers kept their payroll under the luxury-tax threshold of $197 million last year, which would prevent them from being taxed at a higher rate for repeat offenders if they spent more than the limit of $206 million this year. So if they would be penalized as a first-time offender this year and have plenty of money coming off the books next year, why haven’t they spent more this offseason? Is this a warning of what is to come in future seasons?
“That’s also such a weird narrative,” Kasten said. “If we can do whatever we do and stay under [the luxury-tax threshold], there are a lot of advantages to being under — by the way, a lot more advantages than you all write about.”
Such as?LATimes.com
“I’m not going to go into that because that’s real inside baseball economic stuff,” Kasten said.
I find that a bit offensive. There are plenty of people who are interested in the economic stuff, and are perfectly capable of understanding the economic stuff. They might even stop asking annoying questions about the lack of moves if someone explained to them the inside game.
Of course, the reporter showed his lack of economic understanding on another Kasten statement:
The facts, Kasten said, are that season-ticket sales point to the Dodgers leading baseball in attendance again. And if season tickets are selling, everything must be A-OK.
Of course, it’s not that simple.
At best, Kasten and Dodgers ownership are mistaking loyalty for satisfaction. At worst, they are taking advantage of their customers’ intense devotion.
I’ve often read that prices are signals. If Dodgers fans are willing to pay the price for season tickets, and sales are good, then the Dodgers should assume they are doing something right. The reporter and a few select fans might not like it, but the actual money says fans are betting on a good year.
Which brings me to the point of this post, and what’s been bothering me all day and most of his off-season. There has been a drum beat of articles about how the free-agent system in broken. It seems to me, over my many years of watching and following the game, that the system is always being reported as broken.
There were years when players seemed to be signing a record setting contract every week. There were complaints (in the not to distant past, even) that this would price fans out of the game. There was a time in the early 1990s when free agents were taking less money to play where they wanted to live (Bruce Hurst, for example). The union complained that this would hurt salaries in general. In the early 2000s their were complaints by other teams that the Yankees were not constrained by the luxury tax. The Yankees pointed out they were playing by the rules.
In all the cases above, that was basically true. Even during collusion, in which the system was actually broken, the CBA set up rules that helped the collusion happen. Owners wanted to restrict free agency by limiting the time a player could sign with the previous team, and the players went along with this. In general, players have gone along with more restrictive free agent rules, from allowing compensation to teams losing players, to allowing limits on the amount of money teams can spend signing amateurs.
The players are now where the owners were in the last 1970s. The owners wanted to keep the reserve system, but they kept losing ground as the MLBPA artfully challenged that system piece by piece. The players left enough of the reserve clause in place so that the number of free agents would be limited, and teams would bid on scarce resources.
Now the players like their antiquated system, while the owners keep finding ways to game it to their advantage. The MLBPA should be trying to shift more money to younger players. I hope they go big in order to move the owners in the right direction. I would ask for a four or five fold increase in the minimum salary, and free agency after three years, eliminating arbitration. If they wind up with a doubling of the minimum salary, free agency after five seasons, and the elimination of free-agent compensation, they will at least have moved in the right direction.
Meanwhile, both agents and owners act more rationally. Both sides know the best deals come at the last minute, so they wait out each other. The days of George Steinbrenner making deals just to generate news coverage are gone. It reminds me of this bit from ThirtySomething, a television show from the 1980s:
Michael: I took your advice, Miles. I read Nishiro on The Art of Management. He tells this story of these two samurai warriors standing in the rain. Their swords are drawn. They’re ready to strike. But neither of them moves. They just stand there in the storm, poised.Miles:Why?
Michael: You tell me.
Miles: Because whoever moves first loses the advantage. So they both stand there getting soaked, accomplishing nothing. Stupid way to make a living, isn’t it?
I understand that we are all tired of getting soaked, but that is the new normal. Maybe owners and agents need a pitch clock.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2UpD26d
Alderson’s Health
Sandy Alderson said he is cancer free:
NY Post
“My health is great,” Alderson said. “Since I took a leave of absence from the Mets last summer, I’ve had chemo and surgery — my third surgery — but at this point, based on the medical definition, I’m cancer-free and have been for four months.”
That’s great news, and I wish him continued good health.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2HyHxtn
Saturday, January 26, 2019
Does This Mean the Manager Will be Fired?
The Rays will no longer accept cash at Tropicana Field:
On Friday, the team announced that Tropicana Field will become the first cash-free sports venue in North America.ESPN.com
The move intends to cut the average transaction time in half at concession stands, team stores, the box office and anywhere else where money traditionally changed hands.
They might have cut transaction time by opening a second concession stand. Also, do they not have vendors in the stands at this park? It strikes me that electronic transactions will slow down the delivery of a hot dog to your seat, unless you have an ordering app.
I think this stinks. Cash allows a person a certain amount of privacy. If you don’t want a record of your paying $10 for a light beer, that should be your right.
I guess we have reached the point where it is less expensive to pay a credit card company a fee than to hire someone to count money. I pity the people who use cash exclusively, that will not be able to attend a Rays game. Tampa Bay needs all the fans they can get.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2DzzNn4
Friday, January 25, 2019
Tribute at Parc Central in Langley
Tribute at Parc Central by Essence Properties is a new townhouse development located in Central Gordon in Willoughby, Langley. This project will offer a stunning collection of 80 luxury four bedroom townhomes. An elegant balance of thoughtfully designed details and luxurious finishings, Tribute townhomes will delight families wanting to live in style.
The post Tribute at Parc Central in Langley appeared first on Vancouver New Condos.
from Projects – Vancouver New Condos http://bit.ly/2B3WRZf
Gala at Parc Central in Langley
Gala at Parc Central by Essence Properties is a new condo development located in the neighborhood of Central Gordon in Willoughby, steps away from Langley Event Centre. This project will offer 75 units consisting of one & two-bedroom spacious homes. With no compromise to functionality and design, homes at Gala create a new standard of living in Langley.
The post Gala at Parc Central in Langley appeared first on Vancouver New Condos.
from Projects – Vancouver New Condos http://bit.ly/2S9yoLZ
Changing the Culture
Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo writes and speaks out against abusive training tactics in Japanese amateur baseball:
Tsutsugo’s priorities off the field are focused on improving Japanese baseball at the grass-roots level. He’s written a book on the subject and spoke at length about it at Friday’s press conference.
Marathon pitching efforts, grueling practices and even corporal punishment are all too common in Japanese amateur baseball and Tsutsugo says it all needs to change to keep the sport growing in Japan. Baseball is still Japan’s most popular sport but recent numbers show high school participation is declining.
“I’ve seen cases where coaches scream at kids and even become violent,” Tsutsugo said. “Coaches and children need to respect each other in order for children to make progress.”FoxSports.com
Noting there were pitch counts when he represented Japan at the World Baseball Classic, Tsutsugo said he’d like to see rules making pitch counts mandatory at all levels of Japanese baseball.
I suspect that will be a tough sell, but it is good to see a star player taking on the situation.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2CKrByt
Thursday, January 24, 2019
Pollock and the Formula
Reports put A.J. Pollock in a Dodgers uniform for four years, $55 million dollars. At first glance, that seems like a low number to me. Pollock posted a total of 4.7 WAR over the last two seasons despite missing 1/3 of each year due to injury. He also turned down the Diamondbacks $17.9 million qualifying offer.
I have found over the years that the value of a contract can be ascertained by taking the average fWAR from the three previous seasons as the starting point, then reducing it by 10% a year when the player is over 30. Pollock missed most of 2016, so his three-year WAR average is just 1.73. His total WAR for the four years projects to 5.96. At $9 million per WAR, the contract should be $53.6 million. The formula is once again spot on.
Pollock would likely have been better off taking the qualifying offer, getting another two-WAR season under his belt, and letting salary inflation make up the difference. Instead, he settles for less money because teams rightly see him as oft injured. If he does stay healthy, it will be a very good deal for the Dodgers.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2HDLQnw
Fewer Pitchers
MLB proposed a way to reduce the use of relief pitchers:
Major League Baseball has proposed going back to a 15-day disabled list and increasing the time optioned players usually must spend in the minor leagues, a person familiar with the negotiations tells The Associated Press, moves aimed at reducing the use of relief pitchers and reviving offense.
The person spoke on condition of anonymity Wednesday because the plans were not publicly announced.
The minimum length of time an injured player spends on the disabled list was cut from 15 days to 10 in 2016 as part of baseball’s new labor contract. As a result, DL placements rose from 563 in 2016 to 702 in 2017 and then again to 737 last year, the commissioner’s office said.
StarTribune.com
If I remember correctly, the idea behind the shorter disabled list was the protect the health of the players. Rather than keep someone playing due to a minor injury, the player could go on the disabled list for a short time, heal, and be back quickly. Not surprisingly, the rule was manipulated in a way that was not expected.
My guess is that the new rule will help a bit in the short term, but it’s clear that MLB keeps moving toward a model where pitchers throw as few pitches as possible in a game, but appear in a lot more games. Allowing fewer pitchers on the roster will simply mean that fewer pitchers will be used as starters, and we could see the opener, long reliever, series of closers model adopted everywhere. Instead of five starters, there would be three long relievers and nine other pitchers.
My guess is the union does not agree to the rule change, anyway. The rule would lead to fewer players earning major league money during the year, and that’s will not be allowed.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2sGDjFS
Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Why Are You Calling Now?
This morning, I’m doing work in a rare day in the office. A sales person calls. He’s actually pretty interesting, but I pause him mid-pitch, asking, “What caused you to call me now? Is there something that caused you to think it’s critical for us to talk about the issue this week, versus in 6-9 months.”
I have to credit the sales person, he was at least honest with me, “Your company is on my call list for today, but I don’t know what you might be interested in…..”
We know why we, as sales people, want to call people now–we’re prospecting, we’re looking to find new opportunities. We use our triggers to call the customer–they are on your list, you have a new product or program, ….. They are all reasons that are important to you, not the customer. So why should they listen?
But think about it from the customer point of view, it’s a reasonable question. You are calling out of the blue, interrupting the customer, asking to talk about things that interest you — and, hopefully, — her. But why are you calling her now?
Stated differently, why should she be paying attention to you now, versus 3 months from now, 6 months, next year?
I like to prioritize my prospecting based on some compelling event–something that you are aware is happening with the individual or the company, something that may be happening in their industry, markets, with their competitors, that may impact them. Yeah, I know marketing will tell you a download of a white paper is a compelling event–it maybe–but, it’s pretty weak, I’d prefer to find something stronger.
I have to confess, secretly I’m a stalker. Not the kind you think! I stalk my ideal customers. I watch what’s happening to them, I watch what’s happening in their industries and markets, I look for things that should be important to them–possibly they are aware of them, possibly not. These provide the basis for a conversation, they provide a reason the customer might be interested in talking to me this week/month, rather than in 9 months. These are often called trigger events or trigger activities (there is a difference–you can drive the trigger activities, trigger events are things that happen that you can leverage.)
For example, one of my long term clients, Jerry. Jerry was EVP of Sales for a Fortune 100 company. I noticed some major changes happening in their markets, with many of their key customers. I noticed Jerry’s CEO making comments about those changes and the impact on their business. And I knew that we were one of the best companies to help Jerry address these issues with his sales team.
This created a compelling reason for me to call Jerry and a compelling reason that he might want to talk to me right now. I remember our first call, “Jerry, I’ve noticed this is happening…..”
Every prospecting call, there is a compelling reason, not my compelling reason, but one that I expect will be compelling to the customer. It is always about something happening now that is likely to impact them. As a result, my hit rate on these prospecting calls is very high. People want to talk because I’ve identified a reason they might want to talk.
Compelling reasons are easy to find. If you are knowledgeable about your customers, their markets, their customers, their organizations, it’s easy to find them. But you have to make the time to figure these out.
It’s easy to develop a compelling reason for a campaign at a number of customers. If you see something happening in a certain industry or market, that impacts customers in your ICP, you can call each of them, discussing that issue, learning the impact on them.
We know each of us has a compelling reason to make a call, we want to find new opportunities. But the customer doesn’t care about your compelling reason, they care about theirs.
Do you know, from your customers point of view, why you should be talking to them now! If you don’t you aren’t ready and they won’t be ready.
from Partners in EXCELLENCE Blog — Making A Difference http://bit.ly/2T5DSEN
Last Man Standing
This season marks the 80th anniversary of the retirement of Lou Gehrig. My dad, who is seasonal age 98 this year, attended that game with his best friend and his younger brother. Both of them passed away in recent years. It struck me today that there is the possibility that my dad is the oldest person alive who attended the Gehrig ceremony.
I found an actuarial table based on the years 1939-1941, and using that made a rough estimate that at the time, an 18-year-old had a 1 in 1000 chance of living to be 98 years. The attendance that day was 61,808. The population that might be older than him today, age 98 through 108, should have made up about 16% of the fans that day, or around 10,000 people. If we generously apply the 1 in 1000 to that whole cohort, my dad would be in the top 10 of oldest surviving fans from that game. Since much of that cohort would be older, I suspect he’s more likely in the top five.
There are two things working against the 1939-1941 numbers being correct, one that hurts my father’s chances and one that helps them. The help is WWII, as that cohort of 18 to 28 year olds did most of the fighting in that time, and their death rate over the next few years likely ran much higher than expected. What works against my dad is that those who survived the war received much better medical care for the rest of their lives. There seem to be many more people living past 100 than ever before.
So I’ll stick with the estimate of dad sitting in the top five. If anyone knows a parent or grandparent or great grand parent who attended the game and is at least 98, please let me know.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2UiOJvt
Aaron Park
George Stanley wants a permanent name for Miller Park, as the sponsorship changes hands:
JSOnline.com
American Family Insurance, a great Wisconsin company that was here when Hank played, could share the glow of this lasting tribute. So could Bud Selig, Mark Attanasio and our elected officials. It would be an uplifting moment to see them announce together, with Hank and his family, that when the stadium’s name changes, after the 2020 season, it will be called American Family Stadium at Hank Aaron Park. Or AmFam Field at Aaron Park. Or something better along those lines.
It sounds like a great idea to me. Associating a business with Henry Aaron has to be a winner.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2RLbriH
Pofile Oak Street by Bold
Pofile by Bold Properties is a new 6-storey condo development located at at Oak Street & 67th Avenue in Vancouver. This project will offer 47 boutique one, two and three bedroom homes in one of Vancouver’s most iconic neighbourhoods. The modern residences blend thoughtful details and intuitive design with intelligent floorplans, for balanced, cohesive living.
The post Pofile Oak Street by Bold appeared first on Vancouver New Condos.
from Projects – Vancouver New Condos http://bit.ly/2HDkOfE
Winston Terraces in the heart of Langley
Winston Terraces by Quadstar Development is a new townhouse development located in the heart of Langley. This project will offer a stunning collection of 26 carefully crafted townhomes. Winston Terraces just minutes to Downtown, shops and a myriad of local amenities. These spacious and bright homes feature private rooftop terraces, quality finishings, and innovative interior design.
The post Winston Terraces in the heart of Langley appeared first on Vancouver New Condos.
from Projects – Vancouver New Condos http://bit.ly/2RZvObv
582 West King Edward
582 West King Edward by Argon Properties is a new condo and townhouse development located at Ash Street and West King Edward Avenue, Vancouver. This project will offer 31 condominiums and 5 townhomes, sizes range from 540 sqft to 1,505 sqft. You’ll enjoy quick connections to downtown Vancouver, Richmond, and the airport without the hassle of traffic or parking. At 582 West King Edward, you’ll free yourself from the car and embrace a human-centred lifestyle.
The post 582 West King Edward appeared first on Vancouver New Condos.
from Projects – Vancouver New Condos http://bit.ly/2UiEEi7
Promontory in Uptown Kelowna
Promontory by eVest Funds is a new collection of townhomes located in the hills of Clifton Heights, Kelowna. This project will offer 120 units sizes ranging from 540 sqft to 1,300 sqft. Nestled in one of Kelowna’s most desirable neighbourhoods overlooking Kelowna Golf and Country Club, Dilworth Bluff and the City Center, Promontory is a prime development site.
The post Promontory in Uptown Kelowna appeared first on Vancouver New Condos.
from Projects – Vancouver New Condos http://bit.ly/2RK9Ny6
Too Crowded?
Tim Dahlberg wonders if the Hall of Fame is too crowded:
The trend today seems to be to add players in bunches. And that’s not necessarily a good thing for a hall that was once reserved for only the best of the best.
Baines’ place in the hall can be debated, as can a plaque for any player not named Ruth, DiMaggio or Koufax. And it will be debated, because baseball’s Hall of Fame remains the gold standard for all sports and baseball fans love to argue about who should be in it.
Still, six players this year, six last. In last three years, 15 players have made the Hall of Fame, bringing the total to 234 former major league players, and 331 members overall.FoxSports.com
It may not be too many, but it’s becoming too much. And it shows no signs of slowing down, even with a lack of star power in upcoming classes (Derek Jeter will almost surely be the only new player elected next year).
We’re talking about the 98.5 percentile of anyone who ever put on the uniform. Getting on the ballot requires a decently long career, so maybe just the top 10% of players make the ballot period.
No one is going to equate Harold Baines with Willie Mays, even though both are in the Hall. Fans are smarter than that.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2UbbKAe
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
Just Because We’re In Your ICP Doesn’t Mean I Have A Need To Buy!
I wrote about how badly too many sales people conduct discovery with their customer: Are You Guilty Of Conducting “Non-Discovery?”
It’s useful to expand on that initial post. We know the importance of focusing your prospecting and pipeline development efforts on people and companies fitting your Ideal Customer Profile (ICP). These are the customers who are most likely to have the problems/challenges that our solutions address. Trying to find opportunities outside the ICP is a pure waste of time–unfortunately too many sales people are glad to waste their time in this way.
But just because you are focusing on customers in your ICP, doesn’t mean they have a need to buy. There could be any number of reasons, including:
They don’t have the problem you address. Just because they are in the ICP doesn’t mean they have the problem your products and services address. The ICP just focuses you on those that are likely to have the problem but can’t tell you that every customer fitting the ICP has the problem.
They have already solved the problem that you address. Whoops–too late, better luck next time. Maybe check, are they happy with their current solution? What’s working, what would they like to see different, how important is that to them?
They don’t care about the problem. While we think the problem is something that should be important to the customer, some simply don’t care. Perhaps probe to understand why they don’t care, maybe they don’t understand the impact on their operations. Maybe they don’t really understand the issues. But if they do and they still don’t care, you are pushing a rock up a very steep hill and annoying the customer.
They have higher priorities. While they may recognize they have a problem, they may have higher or different priorities and are focusing on them. Perhaps you can try to raise the priority by understanding what’s happening now and the impact of doing nothing. If you can’t raise the priority, nurture them until they do think the problem is important.
They don’t know they have the problem and don’t know they should care. This is the golden opportunity! Too often, people just don’t know what they don’t know. They may not realize they have a problem, that there is a better way of doing things, or they may be missing out on opportunities. You have the opportunity to educate them, inciting them to change.
The ICP is the critical starting point for all your prospecting and your pipeline development. But it is just the starting point, you have to drill down into each customer situation to understand and qualify real opportunities and those customers that have a compelling need to buy–or with whom you can create a compelling need to buy.
Afterword: Thanks to Joel Lyles for provoking this post!
from Partners in EXCELLENCE Blog — Making A Difference http://bit.ly/2sGA5SE
Shedding Players
Shed Long had a very short career with the Yankees:
LookoutLanding.com
Shed Long is a 2B, and the Yankees have a logjam in the infield at virtually every level of the minors. What the Yankees really could use is an athletic center fielder who isn’t yet in the upper minors. The one area the Mariners seem to have some depth at in the minors is the outfield. The Mariners need infield prospects badly. Long also needs to be added to the 40-man, while Stowers doesn’t, and while the Mariners can easily find a slot for Long, the Yankees can not. So in retrospect, it isn’t an entirely surprising turn of events that the Mariners would get involved.
That’s Josh Stowers, who posted a .260/.380/.410 slash line at low A Ball. His seasonal age was 21 in 2018, so he was old for that level. The Yankees have plenty of power, so if he develops as a lead-off hitter, he’ll fill an important role for the team.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2Ua00Oq
Player Autonomy
Peter Gammons reports a nugget of wisdom Sandy Alomar, Sr. relayed to Alex Cora:
TheAthletic.com
“He told me that one of the reasons he thought things went so well for us in Boston was that I gave the players the power to make their own in-game decisions,” says Cora. “He jokingly said ‘if they’re making decisions, they can’t second-guess you.’ But what he really meant is that he believes the more players are empowered, the more they prepare, the more they buy into the work we do with the coaches and the scouting and analytics staffs. They want to win, and if they’re accountable for decisions in the game (when to try to steal, hitting in counts, etc.) the more they’re prepared, the more they study everything within the game.”
In general I agree. Sometimes, however, you have to have the right players. Steve Lyons, for example, was incredibly bad at making these decisions. With the right group, however, I can see where this would pay off.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2RK52nS
The Pearl Residences in Victoria
The Pearl Residences by Farmer Group is a new 8-storey mixed-use condominium residence development located in downtown Victoria‘s Chinatown district. This project will offer a collection of 133 distinctive residences with contemporary interiors and a variety of floor plans to suit diverse lifestyles. Set in a prime downtown location overlooking the working harbour, The Pearl’s concrete and steel architecture adds lustre to the red brick patina of Victoria’s historic Old Town.
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from Projects – Vancouver New Condos http://bit.ly/2AXjtuy
Hall Class
Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, Edgar Martinez, and Mike Mussina win election to the Baseball Hall of Fame. Rivera becomes the first unanimous election. Both Halladay and Martinez received 85.4% of the vote, and Mussina squeaked by with 326 votes, with 319 required for election.
Congratulations to all!
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2ARYbhZ
Momentum – My Strengths and Struggles
In a recent entry, I stated that consistency is my greatest weapon. There’s nothing fancy about how I train, but I don’t miss days. Thus, I’m never forced to start over and regain momentum. And momentum is powerful. I know what it’s like to have (from a training standpoint), but I also know what it’s like to lose in other areas. So, within this entry, I’ll share my strengths and struggles regarding the beast that I call momentum.
Definition
For our purposes, we can define momentum as strength or force gained by motion or by a series of events.
And it’s this simple definition that highlights the importance of starting. Just get up and go. Because action, motion, and forward progress create momentum.
Conversely, there’s no chance to build momentum if we are lost in paralysis by analysis. In other words, don’t overthink things. Regardless of your goals, you don’t need to have all the answers before starting. Often times, the best thing to do is to take a step forward.
Initially, you may not know where you’re going, but as the forward steps accumulate, so does your momentum. And it’s that momentum that allows you to learn by doing. You suddenly find a path, new ideas arise, and now you’re making progress.
My Strengths
When we think of momentum as strength or force gained by motion, that essentially summarizes my training. I am far from perfect, but one thing I am is consistent. Regardless of how I feel, I get up and go. I always do something.
As I’ve said before, something beats nothing. I am living proof. I don’t follow any fancy routines. On the contrary, my training is almost completely devoid of complexity.
Yet, it’s amazing how much can be accomplished when you work hard and remain consistent. My own consistent effort has allowed me to ride the wave of momentum for multiple decades now.
Good things happen when you bust your ass regularly.
My Struggles
Yes, I know all about the power of momentum. Unfortunately, I also know what it’s like to lose, and how difficult it can be to regain.
Long time readers of this site may know what I’m talking about. A few years ago, I used to update this blog several times a week. I was always busy working on new projects as well (ex. books, DVDs, etc.).
Eventually though, I got so busy coaching that I lost my creative momentum. The days started flying by and I forgot what it was like to be the person who started this site.
Many moons ago, I created this blog to share as much information with as many readers as possible. That was the goal, but I’ve failed in recent years. And that’s unfortunate because I’m wiser and more experienced now than ever before.
What’s the Point?
Some might be wondering why I’m writing about how I’ve struggled to write. Bear with me though, as I believe there’s an important lesson or two here.
First, it’s entirely possible to have momentum in some parts of your life, while struggling in others. Real life isn’t the highlight reel that many pretend it to be on social media. Real life is challenging, and no one is immune to such difficulties. We all need to recognize this simple fact.
Second, I also believe it is important to highlight, rather than hide, our own faults and flaws. I’m not ashamed to admit where I’ve failed, as doing so is often the first step necessary to turn the tide.
It’s impossible to fix a problem if you aren’t willing to admit that it exists.
The Solution
Fortunately, the solution to regaining momentum (in anything) is quite simple. It’s the execution that can be difficult.
It all boils down to action. You either do or you don’t. But when you do act, good things tend to happen.
For example, I sat down to write this entry an hour ago and here I am. It’s almost done. I would have never arrived here if I didn’t take that first step forward.
Final Thoughts
In summary, momentum is a beast. I’ve seen it in action as a coach and it is invaluable. The strength gained through motion can be incredible. Once again though, nothing happens without action.
So, stop delaying, get up, and go. That’s my plan, and anyone else who’s lost momentum is welcome to join me.
Related Entry:
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“Momentum solves 80% of your problems.” – John C. Maxwell
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from RossTraining.com http://bit.ly/2HswpOR
The Haro in Cordova Bay
The Haro in Cordova Bay is a new 4-storey mixed-used development located along the 5100-block of Cordova Bay Road in Victoria. This project will offer 86 market condominiums, ranging from one-bedroom to three-bedroom, penthouse homes. The Haro is designed for those determined to fully embrace Island life; living by the shore in this most precious part of the Pacific. Choose your new Island home within one of three unique buildings. Enjoy luxurious living in a community like no other.
The post The Haro in Cordova Bay appeared first on Vancouver New Condos.
from Projects – Vancouver New Condos http://bit.ly/2FH5A7U
The Ambrose on Hawthorne
The Ambrose on Hawthorne by Quorus Properties is a new condo development located in Port Coquitlam. This project will offer 28 units, sizes range from 478 sqft to 989 sqft. Open concept living and over-height ceilings complement modern finishes including stunning quartz countertops, brand name stainless steel appliances, high-quality laminate floors, and even crown mouldings. The development is scheduled for completion in 2020.
The post The Ambrose on Hawthorne appeared first on Vancouver New Condos.
from Projects – Vancouver New Condos http://bit.ly/2sE9vcW
Are You Guilty Of Conducting “Non-Discovery?”
We all know the importance of conducting discovery calls. In principle, a discovery call is to help us learn more about the customer, their needs, problems, dreams, and goals.
Once we “discover” these, we can determine whether the customer has a need that we can address, we can assess the urgency and interest the customer might have in addressing those needs.
But there’s something lacking in the majority of the discovery calls I see. There are the standard questions, to which there are always the standard answers: “Of course I’m interested in growing my business and revenue, of course I’m interested in increasing the profitability of my company and improving results, of course I’m interested in getting more leads or visibility to my target customers [replace this with whatever your function/job is], of course I’m interested in beating my competition…..”
“Yes, I’d like to spend less time on admin and overhead tasks; Yes, I want to improve my personal productivity/performance, as well as that of my people…..”
Every once in a while, just for kicks, when someone asks me if I want to drive more business growth, I respond, “Not really, we have to much business, do you know someone I can give some business to….” It’s so much fun doing that, it really screws with a sales person’s mind. (Yes, I know I’m a bad person, but it’s not my fault you are asking me brain dead questions.)
Usually, that’s where discovery ends, because the sales person says, “Oh we can help you with those problems. We help companies grow their revenue, we help companies…. Let me tell you how we do this, can I invite you to a demo?”
Or sometimes, there’s the question list. It’s very focused on eliciting certain responses. Sales people go through that list, mechanistically, listening for the response that enables them to stop discovering and start pitching. After all, for these people, discovery is only a route to pitching.
But what has the sales person discovered? They have simply discovered the obvious, but they haven’t learned about the customer, what they are trying to do, why, what’s holding them back, whether they even want help (even if they may need it).
There’s so much more we can learn, just a few: We can understand how they currently do things, the problems that creates. We can begin to quantify the impact of their current challenges and how it limits their ability to achieve their goals. We can probe to learn why they haven’t take action on these issues. We can also learn who it impacts, who might be involved in making a buying decision, how they organize themselves to make a decision, how they would get funding and resources to make a change. We can learn what other alternatives they are considering.
We can help them learn through our discovery questions, “Have you ever thought of doing this….., What would the impact be if you made this change…, How would doing this impact the results you produce…, What happens if you choose to do nothing….?”
We might consider that while we are conducting our discovery, the customer may be going through the same process, conducting discovery of their own. The customer is learning about the issues, what they should be considering in their buying process, even what they don’t know, but need to.
But of course there are some challenges with doing this type of discovery, we have to know something about the customer – both the individual, their function within the enterprise, and their enterprise. We have to understand how these people work, what typically stands in their way, why those are problems. We have to understand how to co-discover the impact of these issues with the customer.
We have to engage in a two way conversation enabling us to learn from the customer, while they learn from us. We have to guide the customer through both their discovery and our discovery.
This takes time, it takes work, deep understanding of how the types of problems we solve and how they are manifested in the customer environment.
Discovery is powerful, both for us and for the customer. Discovery is actually where you win the sale. It’s where you and the customer discover what they should be doing, the potential impact, and why it’s so important to take action. It’s where the customer discovers not only what they should buy but how to buy.
Are you conducting discovery or non-discovery?
from Partners in EXCELLENCE Blog — Making A Difference http://bit.ly/2REFh8w
Hall of Fame Day
The Hall of Fame announces the Baseball Writers Association of America vote for the class of 2019 this evening at 6 PM on MLB Network. I believe you can stream it live if you do not have access to the channel otherwise. USA Today lists the votes of their writers here. Five of the seven writers there voted for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, as those two gained a bit in the public voting this year.
The latest tracker includes over 50% of the potential ballots, and it looks like Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, and Edgar Martinez are locks. Mike Mussina remains at about 81%; he dropped about 6% last year when the vote was announced, so he is on the edge. Given his jump in support among the public ballots, I suspect he will see some growth in the non-public ones as well. It’s going to be close. Bonds and Clemens managed to pick up a few public votes compared to last year, and new voters went for them strongly. There’s been a surge for Fred McGriff as well in his final year on the ballot, but not nearly enough to put him over the top.
I suspect Martinez’s surge has something to do with the Today’s Game committee electing Harold Baines. Once a designated hitter is in the Hall of Fame, there’s no reason a much better one should be shut out.
Finally, we will see if Mariano Rivera is a unanimous choice. My bet would be no. There are people out there who believe closers should not be in the Hall of Fame. I don’t agree with that. Closer and DH are modern positions, and the best at those should be recognized. There should just be very few of them. There is a hierarchy in the Hall based on how many ballots it took to get in, and the percentage of the vote on the first ballot. While I feel Rivera should be in, he shouldn’t be the first unanimous choice, and probably not a first ballot player. He’s in the right place at the right time.
It is sad Roy Halladay won’t see his election. Halladay was a man who finished what he started, leading the majors in complete games during the years of his major league career. As that stat quickly became an oddity, Halladay kept staying on the mound. His election will be a fine memorial.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2R2nD9K
Monday, January 21, 2019
A Redder Shade of Gray
The Reds and Yankees completed their much discussed deal for Sonny Gray:
The New York Yankees have traded Sonny Gray to the Cincinnati Reds for minor league second baseman Shed Long and the Reds’ competitive balance pick for 2019, which is expected to be around #37 overall. As part of the deal, Gray has agreed to a three year, $30.5 million extension for 2020-22 with a 2023 club option. In addition, lefthanded pitcher Reiver Sanmartin goes from New York to the Reds.Lone Star Ball
It was clear from the start of the offseason that the Yankees were going to move on from Sonny Gray, and there was some talk that he might even get non-tendered. Instead of non-tendering him, however, the Yankees have managed to move him, along with a fringe pitching prospect, to the Reds for a solid second base prospect and a draft pick between the first and second rounds. Not a bad capturing some value from an asset generally seen as significantly diminished.
Shed (short for Shedric) will play 2019 as a 23 -year-old with 168 games unders his belt at AA. His strength offensively is getting on base. The Yankees have stocked up on middle infielders. That gives them flexibility to flip one of the veterans at the trade deadline, and depth in the system if one of the youngsters doesn’t continue to develop.
Gray gets to start over as the Reds continue to revamp their rotation. The last four seasons he has allowed a decent number of home runs, but maybe getting to face the opposing pitcher more often will help counter the his likely higher home run totals at Great American Ballpark.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2R2Symo
Shaping the Harper Negotiations
There is a solution concept in game theory known as the Shapely Value. A few years ago I explored this as a way of determining which positions might be worth the most valuable, but the calculations for what I was trying to do were intractable.
Shapely values look at the players or items in a game, and the value they give to the game dependent on the order they are added. There is an example at the link above of a game in which there are three gloves, one left and two right. The game has a value of one when opposite gloves have been picked, zero otherwise. The left handed glove twice as valuable as the right-handed gloves, as it completes the set twice as often.
In terms of assembling a 25-man roster, I saw it as the first 17 players added had no value (measured in WAR), as it strikes me that 18 players is the minimum needed to field a team that could play every day. That 18 would require a certain set of players exist to fill in the various roles (skilled infielders, relief pitchers, etc.). That set may not be filled in until the 25th player.
In addition, I set an upper limit the value a team would get when adding a player. If the team was already at 50 WAR, an value after that would count as zero for the player. At 50 WAR, the team is going to make the playoffs, so anything after that adds nothing to the chance of the team getting to vie for the championship.
To sum up the rules:
- The first 17 players get zero value.
- The first player after the 17th player who completes the 18 man minimum requirements gets all the value up to that point.
- If players only get credit for WAR that brings the total to 50 or less. So if a team has 48 WAR, and a three-WAR player is added next, that player gets credit for two WAR.
In the case of Harper (or any big money free-agent), they are the last man in. The rest of the roster tends to be set, so they would get credit for whatever WAR they are bringing to the table. There are reports that the only two teams remaining in negotiation with Harper are the Phillies and the Nationals (although you should be skeptical of that claim). What does adding Harper last to those two teams do?
This Google Sheet shows the 2019 projected WAR for the top 24 players on currently on the Phillies and the Nationals. Adding Harper to the Phillies brings their to projected WAR total to 36.1. Adding him to the Nationals bring their projected WAR total to 50.1
Those two numbers are the problem. A total of 36.1 WAR would put the Phillies around 85 wins. That’s the place where a little good luck leads you back to the playoffs, but a little bad luck puts you under .500. The Nationals are at 45 WAR without Harper, more than good enough to make the playoffs. My Shapley rules would not allow 0.1 of Harper’s projected WAR, making him less valuable to Washington. So the Phillies need to decided if they want to pay for a player who doesn’t put them over the top, and hope they develop more talent. The Nationals need to decide if he’s worth the money to create an even better super team.
If I ran the Nationals, I’d offer Harper $50 million for one year, saying, “Let’s try one more time to win a World Series for the town.” Harper would still be a young free agent a year later, and a great year would raise his value. For the Phillies, I would go three years, $145 million with mutual options, so that if the team doesn’t develop, Harper’s contract won’t drag on a future rebuild.
The right place for Harper would be on a good, young team where a four to five WAR player would push them over the edge. Looking at total team projected WAR, it looks to me like the Twins, Rays, and Athletics would be perfect fits. Unfortunately, none of those teams tend to spend big money on free agents. The Rays are especially intriguing, since I suspect Harper’s power would work especially well in that park. It would certainly up the Rays attendance. Maybe it’s time for one of these teams to open up the purse strings and go for it.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2U527mz