Reports put A.J. Pollock in a Dodgers uniform for four years, $55 million dollars. At first glance, that seems like a low number to me. Pollock posted a total of 4.7 WAR over the last two seasons despite missing 1/3 of each year due to injury. He also turned down the Diamondbacks $17.9 million qualifying offer.
I have found over the years that the value of a contract can be ascertained by taking the average fWAR from the three previous seasons as the starting point, then reducing it by 10% a year when the player is over 30. Pollock missed most of 2016, so his three-year WAR average is just 1.73. His total WAR for the four years projects to 5.96. At $9 million per WAR, the contract should be $53.6 million. The formula is once again spot on.
Pollock would likely have been better off taking the qualifying offer, getting another two-WAR season under his belt, and letting salary inflation make up the difference. Instead, he settles for less money because teams rightly see him as oft injured. If he does stay healthy, it will be a very good deal for the Dodgers.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2HDLQnw
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