The American League Championship Series begins Friday in Cleveland as the Blue Jays battle the Indians. These are two closely matched teams. The Indians have most of the edge when it comes to offense.
| Statistic | Toronto Blue Jays | Cleveland Indians |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 4.69 (5th) | 4.83 (2nd) |
| Batting Avg. | .248 (11th) | .262 (3rd) |
| OBP | .330 (3rd) | .329 (4th) |
| Slugging Pct. | .426 (7th) | .430 (5th) |
| Home Runs | 221 (3rd) | 185 (10th) |
| Stolen Base % | 69% (8th) | 81% (1st) |
To a first approximation, the offense match-up is slow versus fast. The Blue Jays are a lumbering power team, taking walks to set up the big home run. The Indians are the fast and nimble team, slashing for hits, putting men in scoring position with double, triples, and stolen bases. Of course, the Blue Jays have speedsters and the Indians have sluggers, but their profiles are a fast team versus a slower team. You can beat the Blue Jays by shutting down their power, but the Indians can use speed in a number of ways.
The pitching and defense might be even closer than the hitting.
| Statistic | Toronto Blue Jays | Cleveland Indians |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Avg. | 3.78 (1st) | 3.84 (2nd) |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 4.11 (1st) | 4.20 (2nd) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.1 (6th) | 8.7 (2nd) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 2.8 (1st) | 2.9 (7th) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 25.1 (3rd) | 25.7 (7th) |
| BABIP | .283 (1st) | .291 (2nd) |
The Blue Jays staff is very good at preventing walks, but the Indians offense is built more around hits than walks. The Indians staff owns a high strikeout rate, which leads to fewer hits. The Blue Jays hit for a low batting average anyway. The Blue Jays staff stops hits with great defense (low BABIP), which should hurt the Indians offense. The Indians staff is middle of the road in home runs allowed, and that helps the Blue Jays offense.
In other words, the Toronto staff takes a away one strength of the Indians offense, while the Cleveland staff does little to mitigate the strengths of the Blue Jays offense. For that reason, the Blue Jays should be a slight favorite, with a 52% chance of advancing to the World Series.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2eaG0Yl
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