The 2016 NLCS between the Dodgers and Cubs gets underway Saturday night in Chicago. The following table compares the offenses.
| Statistic | Los Angeles Dodgers | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 4.48 (7th) | 4.99 (2nd) |
| Batting Avg. | .249 (11th) | .256 (6th) |
| OBP | .319 (11th) | .343 (1st) |
| Slugging Pct. | .409 (7th) | .429 (4th) |
| Home Runs | 189 (8th) | 199 (5th) |
| Stolen Base % | 63% (14th) | 66% (12th) |
The Cubs score half a run more a game than the Dodgers. That’s huge. It also is a nice example of the multiplicative effect of OBP. Note that the Cubs have a batting average and slugging percentage that are not hugely different than the Dodgers. They do post a much higher OBP, however. So for every hit and extra base that comes off a Cubs bat, more damage gets done than the Dodgers because there are more runners who get moved along by those singles and long hits.
Now the pitching and defense:
| Statistic | Los Angeles Dodgers | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Avg. | 3.70 (5th) | 3.15 (1st) |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 3.94 (5th) | 3.43 (1st) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.4 (1st) | 8.9 (3rd) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 2.9 (3rd) | 3.1 (7th) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 22.7 (7th) | 22.3 (6th) |
| BABIP | .291 (3rd) | .257 (1st) |
The Cubs not only outscore the Dodgers by about half a run, the allow about half a run less per game. In terms of three-true outcomes, the Dodgers have the better pitching staff. Like the Giants before them, the Dodgers defense plays well, as evidenced in the team BABIP allowed. The Cubs, however, are off the charts in BABIP allowed, and that accounts for most of the superior run prevention.
I suspect Clayton Kershaw will only be able to make two starts in the NLCS, and I’m guessing games three and seven. It is possible, however, that he pitches game six on short rest, and then he can come out of the bullpen in game seven. Note that the Dodgers used Orel Hershiser like this in 1988, the last time the team won the championship.
Even with optimal Kershaw usage, it will be tough for the Dodgers to beat the Cubs. I would put the Cubs chances around 62%. The Log5 method calculates that the Cubs should average 4.35 runs a game against the Dodgers long term. The Dodgers should average 3.45 runs per game against the Cubs. The Pythagorean win percentage for the Cubs in that case would be .613. The probability of a .613 team winning at least four games in a seven game series is .735.
I can believe I’m being too conservative when estimate a 62% chance of going to the World Series for the Cubs. These short series can be dominated by a single hot players, however, so lowering expectations should be the right thing to do. I will be somewhat surprised, however, if the Cubs do win their first NL Pennant since 1945.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2ddc14x
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