The final League Division Series pits the even champion San Francisco Giants against the team with the best record in the majors, the Chicago Cubs. Two great managers face off in his series, the old school Bruce Bochy, three-time World Series champion, and Joe Maddon, the master of new age managing. The Cubs send a young, but inexperienced offense against a battle tested set of hitters. The pitching staffs have multiple aces, and at least five of the starters had a claim to the Cy Young award at some point in 2016.
| Statistic | San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 4.41 (9th) | 4.99 (2nd) |
| Batting Avg. | .258 (4th) | .256 (6th) |
| OBP | .329 (4th) | .343 (1st) |
| Slugging Pct. | .398 (11th) | .429 (4th) |
| Home Runs | 130 (13th) | 199 (5th) |
| Stolen Base % | 69% (10th) | 66% (12th) |
The Cubs bring the better offense to the game, nearly 0.6 runs per game better than the Giants. The Giants own a slightly better batting average, but the Cubs blow them away in OBP and slugging. Chicago batters, in general, wait for their pitch, then hit it very hard. The biggest difference lies in home runs, the Cubs hitting nearly 70 more than the Giants.
| Statistic | San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Avg. | 3.65 (4th) | 3.15 (1st) |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 3.90 (4th) | 3.43 (1st) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.1 (7th) | 8.9 (3rd) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 2.7 (1st) | 3.1 (7th) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 21.6 (4th) | 22.3 (6th) |
| BABIP | .290 (2nd) | .257 (1st) |
The Cubs did not just finish first in ERA, they led the NL by 0.36 runs. Even with total runs allowed per game, the Cubs were 0.35 runs better than the next closest NL team. The Giants, fourth in the league trail Chicago by nearly half a run.
Note that both teams are not that strong in the three-true outcomes category. The Cubs pitchers strength is their strikeout rate, which tends to mean they are good at preventing hits. Their walk and home run rates are league average. The Giants strength is preventing walks. That puts the strength of the Giants pitchers against the strength of the Cubs hitters. This Cubs offense is so good at so many things, the Giants will need to stop more than walks to beat them.
What makes these two teams so good at preventing runs is the defense. The Cubs and Giants are 1-2 in BABIP, meaning they are very good at turning fieldable balls in play into outs. Note, however, that the Cubs are insanely good at this, while the Giants are good in a much more normal context. The big driver of the Cubs run prevention are their fielders turning batted balls into outs.
The Giants are a good opponent for the Cubs, but they just are not as good as the Cubs. I take Chicago in this series, giving them a 60% chance of winning.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2d86UkC
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