The 2016 World Series commences Tuesday, Oct. 25 at 8:00 PM EDT. Fox will carry the games, and all games start at 8 PM. The series pits the teams with the two longest World Championship droughts against each other. The Cubs have not won the World Series since 1908. The Indians won their last World Series 40 years later in 1948. One long drought, however, is already over. The Cubs had not been to the World Series since 1945 the longest run without a pennant. That title now goes to the Washington Nationals, who came into existence as the Montreal Expos in 1969. That franchise has never been to the World Series. If you count a franchise in one place, then it’s the Mariners who came into the AL in 1977 and have never been to the World Series.
Here is a comparison of the two offenses. The ranks are NL for the Cubs, AL for the Indians.
| Statistic | Chicago Cubs | Cleveland Indians |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 4.99 (2nd) | 4.83 (2nd) |
| Batting Avg. | .256 (6th) | .262 (3rd) |
| OBP | .343 (1st) | .329 (4th) |
| Slugging Pct. | .429 (4th) | .430 (5th) |
| Home Runs | 199 (5th) | 185 (10th) |
| Stolen Base % | 66% (12th) | 81% (1st) |
The teams both scored well in their leagues with second place finishes. The Cubs, however were more of an outlier, finishing 0.55 runs better than the NL average, while the Indians were 0.31. So not only did an non-DH Cubs team outscore the Indians, they did it in a tougher run environment. Power is about even. The Cubs depend more on batters getting on base, the Indians on batters getting hits.
The Indians were much more successful at stealing bases than the Cubs. The Indians took advantage of their base stealing prowess, making 165 attempts to the Cubs 100. The Dodgers were poor percentage base stealers, and they mostly danced around, trying to distract Jon Lester. Expect the Indians to run often on the Cubs ace. Of course, it may not matter that much since Lester does such a good job of keeping batters from reaching in the first place.
| Statistic | Chicago Cubs | Cleveland Indians |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Avg. | 3.15 (1st) | 3.84 (2nd) |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 3.43 (1st) | 4.20 (2nd) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.9 (3rd) | 8.7 (2nd) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.1 (7th) | 2.9 (7th) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 22.3 (6th) | 25.7 (7th) |
| BABIP | .257 (1st) | .291 (2nd) |
The pitching is very similar, both teams ranking high in their leagues in ERA and runs allowed per game. Once again, however, the Cubs are much better compared to their league. Their runs allowed per game is 1.05 runs better than the NL Average, while the Indians are just 0.27 runs better than the American League average.
Note that both teams are strong in hit prevention. They both employ staffs with good strike out rates, and their defenses turn batted balls into outs. They are okay at home run and walk prevention, but by limiting hits, the walks and home runs do less damage.
Apart from the statistics, this series is full of relationships. Theo Epstein hired Terry Francona to manage the Red Sox when they ended their World Series Championship drought. Francona has a special relationship with Lester:
In the days and weeks after the disclosure of Lester’s cancer, Francona protected Lester’s privacy furiously, admonishing any reporter who attempted to reach Lester’s family. The manager guarded the pitcher and his family as he would have protected his own family. Before starting treatment in September, Lester visited Francona at Fenway. Then, after a single treatment at Mass. General, Lester went home and was treated at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle.
“Tito was great with me,” said Lester. “I don’t think with any other manager I could have had that comfort level.”
The manager and the cancer-stricken pitcher cut a deal. Francona didn’t need a lot of information or detail, but he wanted to hear from Lester after every treatment.
The text messages would come every three weeks.
The two know each other very well.
In the bullpen, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman were teammates with the Yankees for most of the season. Miller is being used as a super reliever brought in whenever he will do the most good, while Chapman gets called on for longer saves in the post-season.
Then there is the rivalry between Terry Francona and Joe Maddon, who managed against each other in the AL East from 2006 through 2011. In that time, the teams traded 93 hit by pitches, Boston batters getting hit 48 times, Rays batters getting hit 47 times. I was there for this particular one in 2007:
That was current Indians outfielder Coco Crisp taking one and giving it back. During the fight, my daughter turned to me and said, “This is the best baseball game ever!”
I am somewhat surprised that Ryan Merritt isn’t getting a start in the first three games of the series. He has yet to walk a batter at the major league level, and he walked very few in the minors. He goes straight at a Cubs strength. I should give Kudos to the Indians for ignoring small sample sizes, but with a depleted rotation, Merritt might be a better choice for game two.
The bookies have the Cubs at a 0.65 probability of winning, and my analysis has the Cubs probability at 0.74. The Cubs are the better team, and they should win. I will split the difference and give Chicago a 69% chance of winning. Of course, I had the Indians losing both to the Red Sox and the Blue Jays, so take that prediction with a huge grain of salt.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2exKW9i
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