Reviewing the Division Predictions

With the regular season over and the division races settled, it’s good to go back and see how the preseason predictions worked.

The NL Central prediction showed the Cubs winning the division easily, with the Pirates and Cardinals close to each other second and third.

The Cubs own the best position player core WAR in the division, and the pitching core WAR in the division. The 53.5 core WAR indicates the Cubs could win 100 games with minimum contributions from the rest of the team. As a point of comparison, the 1998 Yankees finished that season with a position player core WAR of 36.6 and a pitcher core WAR of 20.2, for a 56.8 core. They won 114 games. We are not just looking at a good Cubs team, this could be an historically great team period.

That didn’t quite work out as the pitching staff wore out a bit mid-season. The Cubs ran away with the division anyway.

The AL East prediction had the Blue Jays winning with the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox bunched together in the middle. So the prediction missed the improvement of the Red Sox and the continued success of the Orioles.

The Red Sox winning depends on the improvement of two players compared to 2015, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. They each posted about -2.0 WAR in 2015. The Red Sox need them both to flip the sign, which would add eight WAR to the total. Even then, that just brings them even with Toronto.

There is other upside, with the Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts at an age where they can improve on their already excellent play. The Red Sox really need the two expensive 2015 signings to play to their contracts for a division win, however.

Three of the four did get better.

The NL East preview had the Mets well ahead of the Nationals:

Washington trails the Mets by a little over nine core WAR, but that may all be a result of injuries to key players. Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, and Jayson Werth all missed significant time and/or saw performance declines due to injury. If that group stays healthy they could easily produce eight more WAR for the Nationals. Combine that with Tanner Roark returning to the rotation where he had success in 2014, and the Nationals have plenty of upside.

Rendon and Werth stayed healthy, and Strasburg was great when he pitched. Roark proved to be an excellent starter.

The AL Central prediction saw the rise of the Indians and the demise of the Twins.

The Indians are the strongest team in the division in terms of core WAR, and that at the moment does not include Michael Brantley, who starts the season on the disabled list. They are also nicely balanced, with about a 53-47% split between core position players and core pitchers. They are not dependent on one group having a great year to win.

The Indians are strong up the middle with the highest value for Catcher+2b+SS+CF in the division at 11.6 WAR. Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor account for half the position player WAR. Again, that is without Michael Brantley, as true rookie Tyler Naquin fills in. There is age around the edges however, that mean we may see some down side from the rest of the players.

On the Twins:

The Twins go into the season looking like the weakest team on paper, but with tremendous upside due to the youth on the roster. Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and Miguel Sano are all pre-prime based on seasonal age. They could be great, or they could flame out.

…

The pitching is more of a problem. All the starters are known quantities. There may be some upside to Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana, but they are not going to change into lights out aces.

The Twins could finish last in the division, or compete for the wild card. Any prediction for this team will come with a high amount of uncertainty.

The NL West prediction had the Giants beating the Dodgers. It certainly looked as if that would work out in the first half of the season, and after the Dodgers lost Clayton Kershaw.

The Dodgers go into 2016 with a good, but not necessarily dominating team. They’ll need to get as much upside as possible out of the core to win the division.

Corey Seager became a star, and the Dodgers got a lot of offense from some unexpected players. Every players who appeared in at least 100 games posted a good to very good OBP. Lots of runners on base tends to lead to lots of runs.

The AL West prediction had the Astros finish ahead of the Rangers and Mariners in a close race.

The Rangers come into 2016 a solid team, and a chance to get better. They come into this season with a legitimate ace in Cole Hamels, and may add a second one when Yu Darvish returns from Tommy John surgery in late May or early June. Delino Deshields posted an excellent season at age 22, and he should get better. After missing nearly two years due to injury, the still young Jurickson Profar will play in AAA to build his skills back. If they come back quickly, he might help the Rangers this year.

Deshields and Profar didn’t work out all that well. The Rangers won due to their exceptional play in one-run games, especially in games late and close.

So not bad. Two division winners were correct, three division winners were picked second, and the AL East was wrong.

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