Since the three games relevant to the AL Massive Tie Scenario will be happening at the same time I thought it would be fun to track the probability of the tie in somewhat real time. Using the probabilities on the FanGraphs Scoreboard, I will frequently update this post with the latest numbers.
As a starting point, I used the Log5 method to determine the winning percentages for the remaining games based on current team winning percentages. Multiply the four probabilities together to get the overall probability. So the day starts off with:
| Outcomes | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tigers defeat Atlanta | .618 |
| Red Sox defeat Blue Jays | .531 |
| Yankees defeat Orioles | .479 |
| Tigers defeat Indians | .456 |
That works out to 0.072. Note that I got the same answer this morning assuming each of the teams had a .540 winning percentage, so taking into account their opponents doesn’t change it much. Check back on this thread for updates. I’ll try to update two or three times an hour.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2dn9xOg
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