In looking at the Royals batting statistics for 2016, it struck me that the team did a great job of getting hits on balls in play with a .309 BABIP, but that was somewhat countered by their increased strikeouts during the season. Striking out 251 times more than they did in 2015 should have cost them around 75 hits. In fact, it only cost them 47 hits, but 49 runs. Was there some issue with the timing of the hits and strikeouts that made a big difference?
The answer turned out to be yes. In 2015, the Royals performed extremely well in a rather rare situation, hitting with a runner only on third. To be precise, one runner on base, and that runner on third. In their championship year, the Royals hit .358/.434/.543 in that situation with 19 K in 219 PA, producing 85 RBI. In 2016, their slash line dropped to .200/.271/.312 with 58 K in 199 PA, producing 52 RBI. The difference in RBI is 2/3 of the difference in runs scored between the two clubs. Nearly 16% of their increase in strikeouts came in just 1.6% of their plate appearances.
In 2015 and 2016, the Royals were excellent at putting the ball in play. About 200 PA in each season in a very specific situation made a huge difference in their overall offensive performance. It’s a reason they beat pundits forecasts in 2015, but lived up to them in 2016. There is a lot of luck built into a baseball season.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2eQUBLT
No comments:
Post a Comment