Trading Votto

Redleg Nation examines the idea of the Reds trading Joey Votto. Right now, all signs point to no. He finds this quote from Reds GM Dick Williams:

“I certainly haven’t had any discussions with him about [waiving the no-trade],” Reds general manager Dick Williams told MLB Network last week at the General Managers Meetings. “When you have a player of that caliber, there’s always going to be that speculation and the questions out there in the industry. I can just tell you right now, I’m really comfortable with him in our lineup. I’m very happy with the contract we’ve got with him. He performed as well as he has in a long time, in recent years. I see him being at the center of our lineup and a guy we could really build around.”

Williams should be happy with the contract, as Votto is a five WAR player getting paid like a three WAR player. Of course, that’s the kind of contract that other teams would love too, and the kind of contract that might bring a haul in a trade. Williams’s statement above could be construed as a challenge to teams; if you want Votto, bring your best deal.

Votto’s age is the downside of the contract, however. He will play 2017 as a 33-year-old, meaning whoever might get him pays for his decline. Also, with the contract back-loaded, whatever team might acquire him will pay the bulk of the guaranteed money.

Votto appears to be a very smart player, and in 2016 made an important adjustment. He always produced a high BABIP, which was somewhat balanced by a high strikeout rate. He brought that K rate down this season, and posted the second highest BA of his MLB career. He did it without a loss of power, too. This was the Miguel Cabrera adjustment that led to a triple crown. If Votto continues to limit his Ks, he might do very well to hide his decline. Some team that is desperate to win now and needs a first baseman might do very well to send prospects to the Reds for Votto. He would need to produce 22 WAR over the remaining life of his contract to make the deal worthwhile. It seems like a good gamble to me.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2fYMeKg