Playoffs Today

The Yankees and Astros put it all on the line for the AL Pennant as CC Sabathia takes on Charlie Morton.

I will go out on a limb and say I like the Yankees in this game. A number of Yankees fans at work yesterday asked what I thought about New York’s chances of winning the series, and I pointed out to them that if they believed the teams were evenly matched, the Yankees had a 75% chance to advancing to the World Series. I did tell one of them that I thought the Yankees would lose to Verlander but beat Charlie Morton. So far, so good.

Sabathia on the road gives up more hits but fewer home runs, giving him a 4.20 ERA in New York this season, 3.18 on the road. That’s a big positive for the Yankees. The Yankees bullpen wasn’t burned last night, so if Sabathia can walk away from the fifth inning with a lead, the Yankees will be in good shape.

Morton’s ERA at home was about 0.8 runs lower than on the road, despite allowing home runs at a much higher rate in Houston. Since hitting home runs is the Yankees forte, the starting match-up would appear to favor New York.

In addition, the Astros offense scored 106 fewer runs at home than on the road. They hit fewer doubles, triples, and home runs, hits and walks, but they also struck out less. Game three, the last time these pitchers matched up, was won by the Yankees 8-1. I don’t expect the run difference to be that big this time, but it would not surprise me if there was a large gap in the Yankees favor.

The positive for Houston is that their bats woke up last night. There are few holes in the lineup, and once they get people on the bases they are tough to stop. It should be an exciting game.

Game seven! Enjoy!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2yXGBK6