The Blue Jays travel to Arlington, Texas to take on the Rangers in the edge seeding of the ALDS. There is plenty of bad blood between these two teams from the 2015 ALDS. Here is a look at the offenses.
| Statistic | Toronto Blue Jays | Texas Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 4.69 (5th) | 4.72 (4th) |
| Batting Avg. | .248 (11th) | .262 (3rd) |
| OBP | .330 (3rd) | .322 (6th) |
| Slugging Pct. | .426 (7th) | .433 (4th) |
| Home Runs | 221 (3rd) | 215 (5th) |
| Stolen Base % | 69% (8th) | 73% (6th) |
The two offenses both round to 4.7 runs per game, but they reach that level very differently. The Rangers posted a fairly high batting average at .262, 14 points better than the Blue Jays. The Jays, however, posted a high OBP, .330, eight points better than the Rangers. The Blue Jays spend their outs better, if you will. Note, too, that the while Texas owns a better slugging percentage, the Blue Jays are collecting more total bases. Toronto’s isolated power is .178, Texas comes in at .171.
The Rangers use singles to replace Toronto’s walks. If two teams have similar OBPs, but one is hitting for a higher average, that’s usually the better offense. Singles do more damage than walks, and that’s why we’re seeing Texas score a few more runs.
The pitching makes this series very interesting:
| Statistic | Toronto Blue Jays | Texas Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Avg. | 3.78 (1st) | 4.37 (13th) |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 4.11 (1st) | 4.67 (13th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.1 (6th) | 7.2 (Last) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 2.8 (1st) | 3.3 (14th) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 25.1 (3rd) | 27.9 (9th) |
| BABIP | .283 (1st) | .293 (3rd) |
The Blue Jays did a great job combining the strengths of their staff and defense to lead the AL in fewest runs per game allowed. They are not a strike out staff, but their fielders are so good they turn a high percentage of balls in play into outs. The low BABIP makes up for the lack of strikeouts. The pitchers are great at preventing walks and home runs. It’s a perfect complement of fielders and pitchers.
The Rangers staff is not very good. They rank low in runs allowed, strikeouts, walks and homer runs allowed. The do field the ball well, as evidence by their low BABIP allowed. Note, however, that bad is a relative term. There is a very narrow range of ERAs and RAPG from 1 through 13; the Rangers are only 0.6 runs worse per game than the Blue Jays.
The most important thing, however, is that the Rangers runs per game is only slightly higher than their runs allowed per game. Texas scored like a .500 team, but would up with the best record in the American League. The Rangers went 36-11 in one runs games, easily the best winning percentage in that category in the league. The biggest reason I can see for that winning percentage is their performance when games are late and close. Those are situations from the seventh inning on where the batting team is trailing by no more than three runs, tied, or leading by one run. In those situations, the Rangers hit .271/.345/.450, somewhat better than their overall numbers. The Rangers pitchers allowed a .242/.324/.377 slash line. That’s better than their average, especially in power. It looks to me as if they were pitching around good hitters, as the batting average drops more than the OBP. The pitchers also induced 31 double plays in 865 AB, while the batters hit into 12 GDP in 873 at bats. If a game was close, the Rangers performed in a way that helped them win.
Will this carry over to the post season? It might, but one would suspect, as with any clutch statistic, there is a great deal of luck involved.
The Blue Jays are the better team. Toronto underperformed their Pythagorean expectation by two games. By that measure, they were nine games better than the Rangers during the regular season. I favor Toronto, giving them a 58% chance of winning the series.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2dgTpwr
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