In what could be a fascinating battle for a number of reasons, the Red Sox and Indians begin their American League Division Series in Cleveland on Thursday. The Red Sox manager, John Farrell, served as Terry Francona‘s pitching coach for four seasons when the Indians manager was in charge of Boston. The two should know each other well, and be able to predict the strategic moves of the other.
First a look at how the teams compare in various offensive categories.
| Statistic | Boston Red Sox | Cleveland Indians |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 5.42 (1st) | 4.83 (2nd) |
| Batting Avg. | .282 (1st) | .262 (3rd) |
| OBP | .348 (1st) | .329 (4th) |
| Slugging Pct. | .461 (1st) | .430 (5th) |
| Home Runs | 208 (7th) | 185 (10th) |
| Stolen Base % | 78% (2nd) | 81% (1st) |
The Red Sox blew away the league offensively in 2016. Cleveland came in second, but scored 0.6 runs below the Red Sox. Boston dominated every average category, and were very good at stealing bases to boot. The Indians were a bit better at that category, and ran a lot more. They made 165 stolen base attempts to Boston’s 107.
| Statistic | Boston Red Sox | Cleveland Indians |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Avg. | 4.00 (3rd) | 3.84 (2nd) |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 4.28 (3rd) | 4.20 (2nd) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.5 (5th) | 8.7 (2nd) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.1 (9th) | 2.9 (7th) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 24.5 (1st) | 25.7 (7th) |
| BABIP | .294 (4th) | .291 (2nd) |
The Indians posted better pitching numbers, but not by much. The Indians allowed slightly fewer runs, struck out slightly more batters, and walked slightly less. They were more adept at turning non-HR balls in play into outs, but gave up more long balls. The problem is that the Indians rotation isn’t what they hoped at this point. Starting on August 2nd, the Indians had to go beyond their five-man rotation due to injuries. The starters went 21-20 in their last 58 games, posting a 4.82 ERA. That’s not going to work against the Red Sox offense.
Cleveland will use just three starters in the ALDS. Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, and Josh Tomlin. That’s one, four, and five. The will need to get two wins from Kluber and hope for one other from the rest.
Boston will start Clay Buchholz in game three, which is pretty amazing given the start of his season and his banishment to the bullpen.
The Indians are great at home, 53-28, thanks to superior offense. That made their winning home field very important. The Red Sox were much more even home and away.
With the diminished pitching staff, the Indians will have a tough time with the Red Sox offense. I would love to see the Indians break their championship drought, but I give the Red Sox a 56% of winning the series.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2dd1cvi
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