The Dodgers travel to Washington to take on the Nationals in the middle seeds National League Division series. Game one takes place late Friday afternoon, with the start scheduled for 5:30. Washington finished the season tied with Texas for the second best record in the majors at 95-67, the Dodgers four games back of both.
On offense, the Nationals finished ahead of the Dodgers by every major measure:
| Statistic | Los Angeles Dodgers | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 4.48 (7th) | 4.71 (4th) |
| Batting Avg. | .249 (11th) | .256 (6th) |
| OBP | .319 (11th) | .326 (5th) |
| Slugging Pct. | .409 (7th) | .426 (5th) |
| Home Runs | 189 (8th) | 203 (4th) |
| Stolen Base % | 63% (14th) | 76% (3rd) |
Those offensive numbers may be overstating the case for the Nationals a bit. Wilson Ramos had a great year at the plate, but an injury took him out of the playoffs. However, he had slowed down in the second half of the season. That didn’t hurt too much as Trea Turner posted a great second half for the Nationals. Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper were hurt down the stretch, but the team gave them plenty of time to heal. We will see how they do come Friday.
The Dodgers are led on offense by three young players, with Corey Seager an MVP candidate at seasonal age 22. Note, however, that the main difference between Seager and Joc Pederson is how they get on base. Peterson uses walks more than hits, but his OBP was only 13 points south of Seager’s. Pederson’s hits also go a long way, giving him a slugging percentage close to .500. As with Yasmani Grandal, it would be a mistake to look at Pederson’s batting average and conclude anything about his offense.
This may come down to which young core plays better (Seager, Pederson, Grandal versus Turner, Harper, and Anthony Rendon).
I also want to note a something I find very strange, the Dodgers stolen base numbers. They are terrible. Roberts was an excellent percentage base stealer as a player, and his most famous moment involves a post-season stolen base. The Dodgers this season stole 45 bases in 71 attempts. This surprises me for two reasons:
- Roberts should be calling the steals. If he is, he’s doing a lousy job either recognizing the situations or knowing his players and opponents.
- The Dodgers should have a fairly analytical front office. They know that the outs from stolen base attempts are huge compared to not running. I’m surprised someone didn’t say, “Stop stealing.” Instead, their SB attempts were pretty constant.
Howie Kendrick should be the only person stealing for the Dodgers.
| Statistic | Los Angeles Dodgers | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Avg. | 3.70 (5th) | 3.51 (2nd) |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 3.94 (5th) | 3.78 (2nd) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.4 (1st) | 9.1 (2nd) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 2.9 (3rd) | 2.9 (3rd) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 22.7 (7th) | 21.2 (2nd) |
| BABIP | .291 (3rd) | .292 (4th) |
Part of the Dodgers pitching staff lower ranks came from the loss of Clayton Kershaw for an extended period of time. Los Angeles went 62 games without a start from Kershaw, and in that time the starters posted a 4.61 ERA. They got plenty of support, however, as they posted a 28-18 record. As a group, their strikeout and walk rates were fine. There home run rate was a bit high, but not awful. While Kershaw was the biggest loss, the Dodgers used 15 different starts during the regular season, 12 of them getting at least four starts. Kenta Maeda was the only one to hit 30 starts. Kershaw has a reputation of not pitching well in the post season, but seven of his 10 starts were quality starts. They just weren’t as high of a quality as the Dodgers would have liked.
Of course, the Dodgers won’t get any injury sympathy from the Nationals. Stephen Strasburg remains injured and will not pitch in the NLDS. Max Scherzer does a very nice job of matching up against Kershaw, but Strasburg would give the Nationals an edge in the non-Kershaw games. All five may very well be toss ups.
There are going to be a ton of strikeouts in this series, and likely few walks. In those situations, home runs matter a lot. The Nationals are better at both hitting and preventing the long ball. That gives them a slight edge, but only a slight edge. I’ll favor Washington 51% to 49%.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2cUhnwx
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