Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.349 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Wily Peralta
0.337 — Charles Blackmon batting against Wily Peralta
0.337 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wei-Yin Chen
0.336 — Trea Turner batting against Wei-Yin Chen
0.330 — David Dahl batting against Wily Peralta
0.322 — Jean Segura batting against Clayton Richard
0.321 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Wily Peralta
0.319 — Corey Seager batting against Matt Cain
0.316 — Nolan Arenado batting against Wily Peralta
0.310 — Starling Marte batting against Michael Wacha
0.302 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Aaron Blair

The Rockies play in Colorado against Wily Peralta. It’s a good day to be in the Rockies lineup.

The NN produces this list:

0.349, 0.763 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Wily Peralta.
0.337, 0.763 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.336, 0.757 — Trea Turner batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.296, 0.748 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.337, 0.747 — Charles Blackmon batting against Wily Peralta.
0.319, 0.744 — Corey Seager batting against Matt Cain.
0.322, 0.733 — Jean Segura batting against Clayton Richard.
0.310, 0.729 — Starling Marte batting against Michael Wacha.
0.330, 0.727 — David Dahl batting against Wily Peralta.
0.302, 0.727 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Aaron Blair.
0.321, 0.722 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Wily Peralta.

Murphy is unlikely to play until the NLDS.

Taking park into consideration modifies the list like this:

0.349, 0.772 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Wily Peralta.
0.337, 0.765 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.336, 0.760 — Trea Turner batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.337, 0.757 — Charles Blackmon batting against Wily Peralta.
0.319, 0.748 — Corey Seager batting against Matt Cain.
0.296, 0.748 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.330, 0.741 — David Dahl batting against Wily Peralta.
0.322, 0.741 — Jean Segura batting against Clayton Richard.
0.321, 0.735 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Wily Peralta.
0.316, 0.733 — Nolan Arenado batting against Wily Peralta.
0.310, 0.733 — Starling Marte batting against Michael Wacha.

LeMahieu and Turner appear to be the consensus choices. Of course, your top pick will fail 25% of the time. Good luck!

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