Massive ties are still possible in both leagues. The three way tie for both NL Wild Card slots is tenuous, however. All three competing teams won Friday night, and a Mets win or a Cardinals loss on Saturday ends the possibility of a three-way tie.
| Team | Record |
| Mets | 0-2 |
| Giants | 1-1 |
| Cardinals | 2-0 |
That is the only combination that can produce a tie. The probability of that, assuming these are .530 teams, in 0.0309, or about 1 in 32.
Of the four American League teams competing for the wild card, only the Blue Jays lost. The four-way tie is still alive, but a Baltimore win or a Seattle loss ends that possibility:
| Team | Record |
| Orioles | 0-2 |
| Blue Jays | 1-1 |
| Tigers | 2-1 |
| Mariners | 2-0 |
The probability of this scenario is 0.0123, or about 1 in 81.
Two three-way tie possibilities exist, however. There are two possible ways for both to happen, I show the highest win combination below.
| Team | Record |
| Orioles | 1-1 |
| Blue Jays | 2-0 |
| Tigers | 3-0 |
This scenario has a probability of 0.0653 or about 1 in 15.
Here is a three-way tie for the second slot:
| Team | Record |
| Toronto | 1-1 |
| Tigers | 2-1 |
| Mariners | 2-0 |
The probability of this scenario is 0.0943, or about 1 in 10. It is the best hope. There is also the possibility that Baltimore, Seattle, and Detroit wind up with 88 wins. The nice thing is that there is a somewhat high sample space (for two days left in the season) in which a massive tie is possible.
The best outcomes for Saturday:
- The Mets must lose to the Phillies.
- The Cardinals must beat the Pirates.
- The Orioles fall to the Yankees.
- The Giants can win or lose against the Dodgers.
- The Blue Jays suffer defeat at the hands of the Red Sox.
- The Tigers defeat the Braves.
- The Mariners win against the Athletics.
The Mets and Cardinals both play at 1 PM Eastern, so we should know fairly early if the NL tie survives. The Mariners are the last game of the day.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2cIh4di
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