The two ALDS series get underway on Thursday, with the Blue Jays at the Rangers leading off at 4:30 PM EDT. Marco Estrada takes on Cole Hamels. In two seasons with the Blue Jays, Estrada’s three-true outcome rates are good, but not great. His strikeouts are a little low, his walks and home runs a little high, but nothing is terrible. He is a middle of the rotation pitcher. Hamels, since joining the Rangers, is a little worse at walking batters, a little better at keeping the ball in the park, but much better at recording strikeouts. This strikes me as a game where Hamels gives up a couple of solo shots, Estrada gives up a couple of home runs with men on base, and the Rangers win.
This, of course, is the point of the wild card game, to put the wild card winner at a disadvantage in the rotation.
At 8:00 PM EDT, the Red Sox open their ALDS in Cleveland as Rick Porcello takes on the Indians and Trevor Bauer. Porcello owns a low 6.1 K per 9 IP for his career, but since joining the Red Sox upped that to 7.7 per nine IP, a much better rate. This season, he combined that with an extremely low walk rate for a Cy Young worthy season. Kudos to the Red Sox staff for taking a good pitcher and making him better. Porcello was particularly strong in the second half, posting the same 11-2 record but with an ERA a run lower than before the All-Star break. Bauer still has a tendency to walk batters, although it is greatly improved from his first two seasons in the majors. The Red Sox, a very selective team, might be able to exploit that. He allowed 15 of his 20 home runs at home this season, so the Red Sox big guns might try to take advantage of that as well. Walks and homers tend to lead to big innings.
Enjoy!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2dO57UN
No comments:
Post a Comment