Smyly in Seattle

U.S.S. Mariner likes the Drew Smyly trade. The Mariners send three prospect to the Rays, (OF Mallex Smith, SP prospect Ryan Yarbrough and IF Carlos Vargas) to the Rays for a solid starter:

Armed with a low-90s four seam fastball with incredible vertical ‘rise’ and a big curve ball, Smyly was somewhat unheralded as a prospect, but enjoyed some immediate success in Detroit thanks to consistently above-average K- and strand-rates. Upon arriving in Tampa, Smyly targeted the very top of the zone and increased both his K rate as well as his fly-ball rate. He’s the last guy you’d go to if you needed a ground ball, but his 2016 GB rate of 31% is nearly off the charts – only the drain-circling Jered Weaver posted a lower mark among qualified pitchers.

As you might expect, this has brought with it a fairly severe problem with the long ball. His HR/FB rates are just about average, but that’s still problematic if you give up fly balls like Smyly does. He pitched around it in 2015 thanks to the best K rate of his career and a great strand rate. In 2016, though, his strand rate collapsed and that turned a lot of solo HRs into big innings, and his ERA and FIP rose substantially. Of course, even last year, in a sub-par year that saw his turn in the rotation skipped to clear his head, he was worth 2 fWAR. This is a pitcher with an admirably high floor, even if Safeco goes homer-happy again.

As for the prospects, who wouldn’t want a player named Mallex? Smith isn’t exactly young. He’ll play 2017 as a 24-year-old, so he should be major league ready after a career .382 OBP in the minor leagues. A great base stealer, he swiped at a 79% clip. If the Rays can install him at the top of the order this season, they’ll have him at a very reasonable cost through his prime seasons.

Yarbrough is a year older, and pitched all of 2016 at AA, for the first time. He went 12-4 with an impressive ERA, but he was old for that level. His strength is stinginess with free passes.

Vargas will play 2017 as an 18-year-old, and he’s yet to play in a US minor league. Anything can happen.

The Mariners get a good pitcher, the Rays get a potential long term lead-off man, a potential decent starter, and a young infielder for whom the sky is the limit. Not bad on either side.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2j9uvFr