Saturday, January 7, 2017

Which Will Bounce Back?

The Mariners and Orioles pulled off a trade on Friday, with Yovani Gallardo heading to the Mariners and Seth Smith joining the Orioles. Both players consistently produced two fWAR seasons, both fell off to about 0.5 WAR in 2016. Gallardo’s decline from 2015 appears to be due to his walk and home run rates jumping well above his norms. Smith’s decline from 2015 appears to be almost totally defensive, his declining power also hurting a bit. In general, I think it’s easier to hide poor defense than bad control. The teams might have thought the same as the Orioles sent the Mariners $2 million in addition to Gallardo. Baltimore might help Smith get some of his power back, so I won’t be surprised if at the end of 2017 this looks like a great deal for the Orioles.



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2jn0Ed8

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