The Bautista Rumor

The rumor of the day is that Jose Bautista and the Blue Jays are working on a contract:

The sides are discussing a two-year deal worth between $35 million and $40 million, MLB Network insider Ken Rosenthal reported early Monday.

Note that amount of money indicates the Blue Jays think that Bautista will produce much closer to his 2016 1.4 WAR than his three season average of 4.0 WAR. Even taking a 10% yearly decline in WAR into account and valuing one WAR at $7.5 million would make the contract worth around $50 million. The Blue Jays could wind up with a very good deal here.

It is likely a much better deal for Toronto than the one they offered mid-season:

Toronto is said to be looking at a three-year contract that would pay him around $25 million per (via Jon Heyman, FanRag Sports).

There were rumors last spring, denied by Bautista, that he wanted five and $150 million. If either his demand or the Blue Jays offer were true, then Bautista greatly misjudged the market.

More and more it looks like the players are in the position of the owners in the first 25 years of free agency. During that time, owners did a poor job of valuing players when they became free agents. They were still under the impression that a player’s peak extended farther into the age 30 seasons than it actually did. They were saving money on good, young players due to the remnants of the reserve clause, but throwing those saving away on declining veterans.

Now, it seems the players are stuck in a mind set. The MLBPA set up free agency and arbitration to drive up salaries. Veteran players would get big contracts due to the small supply of free agents. Younger players would go to arbitration, and that bigger money at top would indirectly raise their salaries in arbitration.

Now, teams are smarter and understand the system. It’s unusual now to see an older player get an outrageous contract. The money saved on youngsters, rather than being wasted on veteran free agents, goes into the pockets of the owners, or for a reasonable extension to a great young player (see Mike Trout, or Albert Pujols with the Cardinals).

What worked for the players in 1976 doesn’t work today. If the union wants to get back to the players making huge money in free agent contracts, it’s time to reduce the years to free agency. Get more players free agents at 26, and the money will start to flow again.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2jori4N