The Twins and the Yankees kick off the 2017 post season with the AL Wild Card Game Tuesday night. The one game play-in to the ALDS pits Ervin Santana against Luis Severino.
Home runs strike me as a major factor that could decide the game. The Yankees hit 241 home runs in 2017, the most in the American League. The Twins hit 206 HR, ninth in the AL. On the other side of the ball, the Yankees allowed 192 home runs, the second lowest total in the league. The Twins allowed 224 home runs, the fourth highest total in the league. The Yankees are much better at producing and preventing home runs. To put it another way, New York out-homered their opponents by 49, the Twins were out-homered by 18.
If you look at all the other offensive categories be it walks, doubles, stolen bases, the two teams are very close. It’s the home runs that made the difference.
That is reflected in the starting pitching for the game. Santana allowed 31 homers in 211 1/3 innings, Severino allowed 21 home runs in 193 1/3 innings. Take that with a grain of salt, however, as 15 of Severino’s home runs came at home.
The Twins won more on the road this season, as much better pitching made up for a slightly worse offense. The Yankees played much better at home, where they hit 140 home runs.
Relievers are likely to get into the game early. The Yankees bullpen held opponents to a .204/.292/.329 slash line. The Twins were .261/.324/.428.
This looks like a much closer game that I expected. The key for both teams will be keeping the ball in the park. For the Twins, an early lead is a must, since it should be difficult to come back against the Yankees bullpen.
Enjoy!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2g6kbex
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