Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.359 — Starlin Castro batting against Brett Anderson
0.354 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Brett Anderson
0.348 — Didi Gregorius batting against Brett Anderson
0.348 — Alex Presley batting against Bartolo Colon
0.341 — Avisail Garcia batting against Josh Tomlin
0.332 — Gary Sanchez batting against Brett Anderson
0.329 — Jose Abreu batting against Josh Tomlin
0.325 — Nick Castellanos batting against Bartolo Colon
0.323 — Garrett Cooper batting against Brett Anderson
0.317 — Mikie Mahtook batting against Bartolo Colon
0.315 — Miguel Andujar batting against Brett Anderson
0.315 — Jeimer Candelario batting against Bartolo Colon

Yankees and Tigers fill the list against two very hittable pitchers.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.305, 0.757 — Jose Altuve batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.359, 0.756 — Starlin Castro batting against Brett Anderson.
0.341, 0.750 — Avisail Garcia batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.354, 0.749 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Brett Anderson.
0.303, 0.745 — Daniel Murphy batting against Steven Brault.
0.348, 0.745 — Didi Gregorius batting against Brett Anderson.
0.329, 0.743 — Jose Abreu batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.348, 0.742 — Alex Presley batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.293, 0.740 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ross Stripling.
0.314, 0.735 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo.

Altuve pops to the top of the list, but Castro is the consensus first choice. I suspect a number of these hitters will not play today as the playoffs are settled. The Dodgers won, so they claim best record in the majors.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Adam Engel	24
Jorge Soler	24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Adam Rosales	23
Aaron Hill	23
Elias Diaz	22
Daniel Robertson	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Guillermo Heredia	17
Paul Goldschmidt	17
Pedro Severino	16
Manuel Margot	15
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Jett Bandy	15
Jose Osuna	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Tom Murphy	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Orlando Calixte	14
Travis Jankowski	14
Nolan Fontana	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Stephen Drew	13
George Springer	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Dexter Fowler	13
Ryan McMahon	13
Carlos Santana	12
Jesus Aguilar	12
Michael Freeman	12
Martin Prado	12
Adam Frazier	12
Freddie Freeman	12
Michael Saunders	12
Lucas Duda	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Taylor Motter	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Carlos Ruiz	12
Alex Gordon	12
Matt Carpenter	12
Rafael Bautista	12
Gavin Cecchini	11
Joe Mauer	11
Drew Butera	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Brock Stassi	11
Kennys Vargas	11
Jose Bautista	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Tyler Collins	11
Tyler Saladino	11
Benjamin Gamel	11
Gerardo Parra	10
Andre Ethier	10
Thomas Pham	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Leonys Martin	10
Willy Garcia	10
Magneuris Sierra	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Bryan Holaday	10
Gregor Blanco	10
Cameron Gallagher	10
Alen Hanson	10
Adrian Sanchez	10
Nick Hundley	10
Andrew Stevenson	10

Good luck!

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