Playoffs Today

Game four between the Nationals and Cubs takes place Tuesday afternoon. The start time moved to 5:38 EDT in order to attempt to avoid bad weather.

This series reminds me of the 2014 NLDS in which the Nationals lost to the Giants in four games. The Giants scored nine runs in the four games. The Cubs have scored eight so far. Since 2012, the Nationals are 2-7 in one-run games in the post-season. One or two runs here or there could have made the post-season history of the Nationals very different.

Tanner Roark takes the hill against Jake Arrieta. Roark posted the highest season ERA of his career, 4.67. Part of that was a horrible June, but he was still 7-5 with a 3.90 ERA after the All-Star break. His last two appearances were poor, but nothing counted at that point as the Nationals cliched the division early.

Roark does have success at Wrigley Field, 3-1 in four starts and a relief appearance with a 3.24 ERA. He’ll need to match that kind of performance today.

Arrieta had two very different seasons. Before the All-Star break he posted an 8-7 record with a 4.35 ERA. After the break, those numbers improved to 6-3 with a 2.28 ERA. What’s not clear is why his ERA dropped so much. He was striking out about a batter fewer per nine innings in the second half, and his walk and home run rates dropped just slightly. It really seems that he just did better with runners in scoring position. Before the break, Arrieta allowed a .286/.407/.451 slash line in that situation, after a .191/.259/.362 line. Maybe there was a real improvement, but it seems more like luck evening out over the season.

Enjoy!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2kBgnqc