When the Musings Marcels for 2018 came out last week, some readers wondered if there would be pitching Marcels this year. The pitching Marcels as developed by Tom Tango are much more complicated, so I have not taken the time to implement them. This year, however, the thought occurred to simply flip the batting Marcels and publish Opposition Batting Musings Marcels (OBMM) for 2018. Instead of predicting wins, losses, games started, etc, OBMM strives to show a pitcher’s season from a batter’s perspective.
The main changes from the formula for batters is in the reversing of the aging effect (except for strikeouts) and the calculation of plate appearances (batters facing pitcher). The new formula tends to overestimate the playing time of relievers, and may underestimate the playing time of starters. The formula is One year ago PA * 0.65 + Two years ago PA * 0.06 + 107. That comes from a regression analysis of 10000 pitcher seasons, with the constants rounded a bit.
The spreadsheet also contains estimates of innings pitcher, runs allowed per nine innings, and FIP.
The purpose is to serve as a guide, not an exact prediction. Batters are projected to hit .217/.268/.357 against Corey Kluber. If they hit anywhere close to that, Kluber will have a very good year. Ubaldo Jimenez should post an opposition slash line of around .276/.350/.462. He probably won’t survive another year in the majors with that kind of pitching.
Please let me know what you think, or if you have any suggestions.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2ij2tIX
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