The series on reviewing the division predictions continues with the AL East. The AL East produced the second to last team to be eliminated, so they are next on the list. Final season standings are here.
The post puts the Red Sox at the top of the division:
The Red Sox core alone looks like they could post a win total in the mid 90s. That gives Boston room for a major injury and some decline by the veterans without losing the division.
A lot went wrong for the Red Sox in 2017, but they had enough players posting WARs between two and three that they did in fact win the division. One big mistake was thinking there was upside to Pablo Sandoval, when in fact it came from Rafael Devers.
The post hedged on the Yankees:
The Yankees are easily the toughest team to predict in this division. They are going young at catcher, first base, and rightfield, and may get even younger in the infield by the end of the season. I have Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, and Aaron Judge down for a combined 3.9 WAR, but there is a real possibility they could combine for 12 WAR this season. If so, the Yankees are in the wild card hunt. Of course, they could also flame out. Both Bird and Judge did a great job getting on base in the minors with good power, and if they come anywhere near that, they might along with Sanchez form a new and very tough heart of the order.
The three combined for 12.2 WAR, although Bird came in at -0.4 due to his injury. That scores as getting the upside right.
The biggest miss was the Rays:
The Rays have a lot of upside potential in their rotation, with the possible exception of Blake Snell due to his high walk rate. Chris Archer had an off year in 2016, Alex Cobb had missed a full season due to injury, and Matt Andriese was still getting used to the majors. The starting pitching should be the strong suit of the Rays, and I would not be surprised if the pitching core would up with more WAR than the position player core.
And that is the problem. Where does the offense and defense come from.
The offense was tied for last in runs score per game, but the pitching made them good enough for a slightly worse than .500 record. Meanwhile, a correct call of poor offense by the Blue Jays and poor pitching by the Orioles doomed both those teams.
On a scale of 1-5, this division prediction gets a four.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2lUEbpS
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