The series on reviewing the division predictions Finishes with the AL Central, the first division to be eliminated from the playoffs. Final season standings are here.
The Indians won the division, and the prediction gave them a 60% chance of winning:
They bring four players to the game with WARs around five, and surround them with good talent. The Indians want to break their down World Series drought, and they are poised to be a power house in the division.
They ran away with the division, but not in the traditional way. They paced the division most of the year, then pulled away with a 22-game winning streak late. A blow out is a blow out, however.
The best prediction of all might have been the Twins, picked to finish third:
The Twins took a step back in 2016 as the youngsters who impressed in 2015 regressed a bit in 2016. Brian Dozier breaking out as a power hitting second baseman was not enough. Still I like the youth, and it’s up to Paul Molitor and his coaching staff to get them to make adjustments they might have missed in 2016. If there is to be a surprise team in this division the Twins will be it.
The Tigers were picked to finish second, but with caveats:
The Tigers have a decent mix of youth and veterans, but it is the veterans that produced much of the WAR in 2016. Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, and Justin Verlander combined for 15.9 of that 29.9 core WAR, or over half that value. When your stars are aging and your youngsters have not quite matured, and downturn can come quickly. The youngsters on the team aren’t quite that young or quite that good, so the 29.9 WAR may be a ceiling rather than a floor for this core.
Overall, I would rate this division as okay, or a 3 on a scale of 1 to 5.
The predictions picked five of the six division winners. There were some good individual team prognostications (like the Twins) and some poor ones (like the Giants). Not a bad year at all.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2zJgXs7
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