The series on reviewing the division predictions continues with the NL Central. The NL Central produced the third team to be eliminated, so they are next on the list. Final season standings are here.
The post picks the Cubs as not only winning the division, but running away with the division. That did not happen. The downside to the team was obvious:
The downside comes from the pitching. Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, and John Lackey are all over 30. They make up three quarters of the core pitching WAR. Brett Anderson offers some upside, but needs to stay healthy.
Overall, the upside from the position players more than makes up for the potential downside of the pitching staff. The Cubs offense should be set for a long while. Now they can build the pitching the same way and try to establish a Braves/Yankees 1990s-2000s dynasty.
Their step back in 2017 reminds me of the Yankees step back in 1997.
The biggest miss was the Brewers, given the lowest probability of winning the division, just 4%:
On the other hand, there is not much hope for upside on the starting staff. Even the inexperienced pitchers are not young. I would not be surprised to see the Brewers rotation look very different at the end of the season, as maybe some real youngsters get a chance.
The Brewers pitched very well, and the staff did not change that much over the year. Here are the starters in April versus the starters in August. The post also missed the rise of Domingo Santana.
Another miss was pinning the Pirates hopes to Andrew McCutchen:
If Andrew McCutchen bounces back from a dreadful season, the Pirates will look much better. They had a big fall in 2017, but instead of cleaning house, the team stood pat on the position players. It seems they could have picked a weak link and made a trade or signed a free agent to improve, but it looks like they are depending on a big year from McCutchen.
McCutchen did bounce back, but the Pirates were down two wins compared to 2016.
The big miss on the Cardinals was Paul DeJong:
My first glance at the Cardinals position players made me think the front office lost their mojo. Dexter Fowler will be the only one of the position players carrying a WAR of four or better into the 2017 season. There is a lot of youth in this lineup, however, with four of those players in their early prime. Jhonny Peralta seems like an unnecessary burden, but the Cardinals don’t seem to have anyone in the minors to replace him.
As far as the Reds go, the thought was that Jose Peraza would provide some OBP at the top of the order. Instead, Zack Cozart and Scooter Gennett provided power up the middle. The Reds, overall, played poorly anyway.
The Reds offense is fine, there is just no pitching to back it up.
That statement was correct.
The predictions for this division were less than okay. The Cubs were an easy choice as the winner, but little else came to pass. I’ll rate this a two on a one to five scale, five being the best.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2AssU2f
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