The Hosmer Example

The Royals extended a qualifying offer to Eric Hosmer, one of nine players to receive the free agent dampening deal. These offers drive down the value of free agents, since the clubs signing the players need to compensate the team losing the player.

Hosmer will now have suffered every indignity that the current reserve system offers. It started his rookies season, when he was called up late enough that he would not qualify for a full year of service time. He came to the plate 563 times, enough to qualify for average rankings, but did not get credit for the full season. This allowed the Royals to keep him under control for seven seasons.

Hosmer was a super-two, however, and did go to arbitration after the 2013 season. He played extremely well that year, but his first big contract was for $3.6 million, after posting $23 million in value. He signed a two-year deal after the 2014 season, again avoiding arbitration, but he played poorly in 2014, rebounding in 2015. He again played poorly in 2016, and signed a one-year deal for $12 million. He is now going into free agency after another good year at the plate.

All-in-all, due to the Royals manipulation of the system, and Hosmer ill-timed bad seasons, he goes into free agency having earned about $38 million (including his signing bonus) and provided the Royals with $79 million in value.

I suspect Hosmer should be valued as about a 2.8 WAR player. Since he still is in his prime (2018 will be his seasonal age 28 season), he should not get much of shave off that number. He should be worth about $22 to $23 million a year ($8 million per WAR), and I suspect he should get five years, $110 million. With the qualifying offer attached, however, he might get $100 million instead.

Once again I’ll make my argument for universal free agency. Due to the rules, Hosmer will likely play through his age 32 season earning about $50 million less than the value he produced. Maybe he makes it up later when some team gives him a dumb contract after then next one runs out. Teams, however, are not dumb like that very often anymore. Twenty years ago that money would be going in the pockets of unproductive, older players, but now it’s just money saved.

I don’t know that universal free agency would be a bonanza for younger players. It should drive down the cost of one WAR. What is will do is pay for performance now, so the best young players reap their rewards early. It would also eliminate the shenanigans that cost players service time. The game has changed, and while the current reserve system might have made sense in transitioning from total team control to freedom of movement, that fight is over. It’s time to have a free market in players.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2hh5Lfp