The series on reviewing the division predictions continues with the NL East. The NL East produced the second division to be eliminated, so they are next on the list. Final season standings are here.
The preview predicted the Nationals would run away with the division, and indeed they did:
There is upside to this group as well. Harper had an off year and seems determined to return to his MVP form. Trea Turner is just getting started. Ryan Zimmerman probably produces a positive WAR if he remains healthy. The biggest downside among the position players is Eaton, whose WAR jumped from three to six due to his first good defensive season. If he drops back to three and Harper returns to a seven, it all evens out.
Even with the Nationals losing Eaton for most of the season and Turner for a big chunk, their depth managed to still blow away the rest of the NL East.
The preview also had the Marlins ahead of the Mets. On the Mets:
That said, they should not need to score many runs to win, if the rotation stays healthy. Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler could rival the Nationals’ three and four starters, but their health issues lowers the probability of that happening. New York is going to need a lot of luck in close games to make the playoffs.
On the Marlins:
This could be a good year for the Marlins, and it could have been a great year for the Marlins. Giancarlo Stanton enters his age 27 season, the peak age for an athlete. It’s the perfect time for him to stay healthy and produce a monster MVP season. If he jumps from 1.7 WAR to 8.0, one could see the Marlins competing for a wild card. Unlike the Mets, the Marlins core position players are fairly young, so a big improvement from Stanton and small improvements from others could put their core WAR in the mid 30s.
The mistake in the division came from flipping the Braves and the Phillies. I saw the Phillies improving while the Braves held steady, but it was the Braves who made strides while the Phillies took a step back.
All in all, it was one of the better predictions of the season, and will rate it good, a four on a scale of 1 to 5 with five being the best.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2mirkOm
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