Playoffs Today

The two AL Division Series get underway today. Boston at Houston provides a dandy pitching match-up, as Chris Sale faces Justin Verlander. Sale makes his first post-season appearance. He only pitched against the Astros twice in Houston, throwing eight shutout innings in 2013, and giving up five runs seven innings in 2016. Sale pitched great through July, posting a 2.37 ERA, striking out 12.8 batters per nine IP. Since the start of August, however, he pitched inconsistently, where it seemed every other start was great or poor. He posted a 4.09 ERA in that time, and allowed 13 of the 24 home runs he allowed in the season.

Verlander is a post-season veteran, making the 17th start of his career. He is 7-5 with a 3.39 ERA. He pitched a great game against Boston in 2013, allowing one run on a home run, walking one and striking out 10 in eight innings. He took the loss, however, as John Lackey and the Boston bullpen pitched a shutout, avenging their 1-0 loss in game one of the ALCS.

Verlander owned a 3.82 ERA with Detroit this season, but once he moved to Houston he was nearly unhittable. He allowed 17 hits in 34 innings. He allowed four runs, all on solo homers. He walked five and struck out 43. He pitched better than even at his peak in 2011-2012. The Astros players complained about a lack of moves by the team at the July trading deadline. When the front office did move, they made one of the greatest stretch run trades ever.

The later game pits the Yankees against the Indians in Cleveland with Sonny Gray taking on Trevor Bauer. Gray made two starts in the 2013 post season, both against Detroit. He pitched well in those games, 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA. Gray had an odd stint after being acquired by New York. He pitched a number of quality starts, but did not get much support. He made enough poor starts that his ERA came in at 3.72. He tended to give up the long ball, but eight of those came in his five starts in New York. On the road for the Yankees he posted a 2.21 ERA, giving up just three home runs. I believe he is starting today to keep him out of Yankee Stadium, as he would likely start game five in Cleveland if it came to that.

The Indians made an odd choice for the game one starter, leaving their ace Corey Kluber until game two. The reason appears to be that if there is a game five, the Indians want Kluber pitching that game on regular rest.

Bauer pitched better than his ERA this season. His xFIP is about 0.6 runs better than his ERA. He posted a 5.27 ERA in the 2016 post-season, his first, but he did beat the Cubs twice. He was very good in 2017 at limiting the power of right-handed batters, so likely the main reason he is in there is to stop Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez.

Of course, the Indians do not let their starters go very long in the post-season. I suspect on both sides in this game, we will see more inning from the relievers than Gray and Bauer.

Enjoy!

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