Friday, March 31, 2017

Smyly Turned Upside Down

Drew Smyly injured his elbow:

Two days after Mariners left-handed starter Drew Smyly was scratched from his final spring training start with what manager Scott Servais called a “soggy” arm, the team announced Smyly would miss at least the first month-and-a-half of the season with an elbow strain.

M’s general manager Jerry Dipoto told reporters the 27-year-old should be able to avoid surgery after the injury was discovered when Smyly felt some discomfort during a Tuesday bullpen session. Smyly will be out six to eight weeks while resting and rehabbing, Dipoto said, adding the team would take no chances with the southpaw, whom Seattle acquired in a four-player trade with Tampa Bay in January.

“We gave up a package of players to get him with the idea that this guy really fits our ballpark, our team and he fits us for more than 2017,” Dipoto said, according to KJR-AM. “So we want to make sure that we’re doing the right thing for Drew.”

That’s not a great way to start your tour with a new team. Smyly is also coming off his worst year, one that saw his strikeout rate drop and his home run rate increase. Given the latter, the Mariners stadium should be a good fit for the lefty.



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The Problem With Efficiency

We design our organizations to be lean mean selling machines.

Each step of our sales process is optimized to maximize the results our sales people get.  We recognize different skills and capabilities are needed in different stages of the sales process.  Prospectors prospect, account managers account manage, product line specialists are expert in their product lines, and on and on….

Each role is precisely defined, we have the metrics to by which we constantly measure performance.

We’ve worked closely with marketing, they have their lean mean marketing machine optimized to deliver just the right leads at just the right time.  We have our marketing and sales automation tools, to support the most efficient operation of our organization.  Each tool optimized for it’s purpose.  Sales people move nimbly from tool to tool to tool.

And, of course, the underpinning of all of this is analytics–increasingly with a dose of AI, because we can’t count on our own intelligence.

Cost of selling is optimized, we’ve created the most efficient machine possible.  We have everything synchronized with the right cadence and well defined TAKT times (look it up, it’s an important concept.).

We’ve even borrowed concepts from our manufacturing counterparts with leader boards, call counts, data being projected on the walls or scrolling across our dashboards.

We start feeding customers through our process, moving them from person to person.  They go from being MQLs to SQLs to qualified opportunities.  The SDR passes the customer to a BDR who passes the customer to an AM (Account Manager), who engages a Demoer, than a Product Line specialist.

The customers move down our optimized assembly lines, with each sales person doing their job, maximizing the efficiency of our organization.  Customer like widgets being passed from one person to another, because it is most efficient for us to handle things that way.

And it works…..for a while.

Leads from marketing may falter, SDRs cry for leads, talking to whoever wants to talk to them, perhaps passing them to BDRs and AMs who are twiddling their thumbs because nothing is coming down the line.  But we are still driven by our TAKT time, because we are an efficient selling machine.

But something else happens, our most efficient process doesn’t match how our customers buy.  The customer buying cycle is, as Hank Barnes puts it, “Squishy.”  We know they don’t know how to buy, they wander, they restart, they start and stop, they go at a pace that’s different from our TAKT time.  The steps they want to take when they buy are different than the steps we have designe to sell to them.

And even the most logical of these customers become illogical.  They have fears, they change their minds, they shift their priorities.  They may get smarter as they go through our and our competitors assembly lines.  They change their requirements, shift their priorities, create new requirements.

And they are emotional.  They want someone they can trust, someone they know can care about them and understands them–personally and as a business.  They need to be reassured.  They want a partner.  They want a relationship.

And they are even more complicated.  There are 6.8 of them.  Each with a different agenda, with different priorities.  We have to move each of them at the same cadence through our efficient sales machine.  Suddenly, herding cats becomes child’s play.  And each customer and each situation is different.

A manufacturing person reading this post would be ripping his hair out at this point shrieking, “Variability!!!  You must get rid of Variability!”

But we persist, as do our customers.  They find our efficient way of engaging them entirely unengaging.  They avoid us, look for alternatives, self educate, only engaging when they know what they want—but then we just need order takers.

The problem with our increasing specialization, our drive for efficiency is the focus of those efforts is on us.  It is on what is most efficient for our organizations and our business.  But what works for us probably doesn’t work for the customer.  And even if it did, they don’t care.

Our efficiency is not their problem.  Their priority is addressing their problems in a manner most effective for them.  Interestingly, customers–at least in complex B2B–are rarely concerned with their buying efficiency  (unless they are procurement professionals).  They care about their effectiveness, about solving their problems and producing results.  If it is a complex B2B buying process, it’s something they don’t do every day, they may do every few years.  So efficiency becomes irrelevant to them.

But we persist, we’ve designed our process, we need to keep feeding customers through our process……

Complex B2B selling and buying is, ultimately, about human interaction–with all the challenges each interaction presents.  Human beings have an aversion to being widgets and cogs.  Human beings treasure relationships.

Personally, the joy of being a sales professional is  all about these human interactions.  At times it’s frustrating, at times we’re disappointed.  But so often, it’s so rewarding.  The customer says,  “Thank you, you made a difference to our business, you had an impact on my life.”

We need to be as efficient in our operations as we can be.  But we have to be effective before we can be efficient.  We need to acknowledge we are not a lean mean selling machine but people dealing with people.

Just as our customers’ buying cycles our squishy, we need to design our machines to accommodate squishy.  Perhaps our design point should be customer effectiveness and customer efficiency.  That may lead to our own effectiveness and efficiency.

Otherwise we fail our customers and we fail ourselves.

 

 



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The Curious Case of Kolten Wong

Benjamin Hochman asks, can Kolten Wong‘s defense justify his hitting?

There’s some pressure from upstairs to play Wong. The Cards signed him to a long-term deal. The Cards held on to him this offseason. The Cards’ general manager, John Mozeliak, has said in the past that he’s “bullish” on Wong.

But it isn’t like Wong is Mike Matheny himself. Tony La Russa said in his book that Matheny could bat .000, but the skipper would still play him, because Matheny was so important to the pitching staff. Wong has to get on base and be somewhat relevant offensively. But he’ll say he needs to play every day to get into his groove. And his manager is prone to playing producing players.

So, yeah, this will be interesting again.

The article seems to be judging Wong by batting average, which is the wrong measure. Wong owns a low career BABIP, .279, so he is unlikely to ever hit for a high average. His walk rate jumped last year, and he posted a .327 OBP. That’s absolutely fine for an outstanding defensive second baseman. At that rate, he’s not an out machine. In fact, he’s a bit above average.

Teams can do a lot worse than a one-WAR player batting eighth.



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Free TV

You can stream all games free on MLB TV today and tomorrow. I cut the cord this winter so I’ll be streaming the season. I’ve been very impressed with the quality of the picture so far. I bought a new phone last week, and showed my dad a game broadcast on the device. He does not see that well, and the bandwidth at his nursing home was low, but HD picture was clear and smooth.

At the moment, I can’t get ESPN games or my local team, the Red Sox, but I’ll live with that. MLBAM seems to be in the lead when it comes to broadcast technology, and it’s only a matter of time before they simply stream every game to every device.

Enjoy the Show!



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Pledge Drive Update

The 2017 Baseball Musings pledge drive continues with twenty three people combining to donate $586. Won’t you join them and help keep the Day by Day Database up and running? It’s the site that replicates the old USA Today Sports Weekly stats for your fantasy team.

I would like to raise $1000 by the start of the regular season. That’s 42 people donating $10 each. Will you be one of them? There’s only two days left!

A donation keeps it possible to use a fine statistical database and lineup analysis and fantasy projections in addition to the traditional blog. You can support that with a voluntary contribution.

Remember, a donation of $50 allows you to dedicate a post with a hyperlink. A $500 donation will list you as a patron with a hyperlink for two years.

Donations can be made via PayPal or Square Cash. Unfortunately, other donations providers have gone out of business or charge too much money in fees. If you are uncomfortable using one of the above providers but still wish to donate, please contact me and I’ll provide an address for a check. My email is pinto@baseballmusings.com.

Square Cash is looking for new customers, which could be a deal for you and this site. If you use share code FVNJNGK when you sign up, and send at least $50, you get back $10 and Baseball Musings gets $10. So you effectively make a $60 donation for $40, and you get the $50 perk!





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Thursday, March 30, 2017

The Loft

Jake Seiner of the Associated Press talks to players and coaches about modifying swings to cut down on ground balls. As some point out, this is nothing new. Here is coach Bobby Tewksbary talking about the issue:

Tewksbary is on a mission to make hitters better by debunking the axiom against swinging up. He felt his own career was hindered by the hitting instruction he got as a young player — he was always told to “swing down” on the ball.

“Johnny Little League coach says to swing down, get on top, and hitters will literally swing down,” he said.

Tewksbary thinks the terminology does more harm than good — and he’s not nearly the most famous dissenter of that baseball adage.

In his book The Science of Hitting, Ted Williams bemoaned that hitters “always heard that the ideal swing is level or ‘down.'” The Hall of Famer advocated a “slight upswing” because it “puts the bat flush in line with the path of the ball for a longer period.” That is, if the ball is traveling down from the pitcher’s hand to the catcher’s glove, the best chance at solid contact is to swing the bat on the same plane — up toward the pitcher’s release point.

“For years and years, people have disagreed with the greatest hitter of all-time,” Tewksbary said.

I will also note that there was a time when putting the ball on the ground, swinging down on the ball, was a very good idea. In the early days of baseball, fielding was terrible. Putting the ball in play gave a batter a good chance of reaching base, since the grounds were poorly kept, the gloves fielder wore were poor, and defense just had not evolved much. Once errors became a minor way of getting on base, hitters should have shifted away from grounders, but old ideas die hard. A solid line drive provides the best results, and Williams was right on how to produce that outcome.



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Pledge Drive Update

The 2017 Baseball Musings pledge drive continues with twenty two people combining to donate $561. Won’t you join them and help keep the Day by Day Database up and running? It’s the site that replicates the old USA Today Sports Weekly stats for your fantasy team.

I would like to raise $1000 by the start of the regular season. That’s 44 people donating $10 each. Will you be one of them?

A donation keeps it possible to use a fine statistical database and lineup analysis and fantasy projections in addition to the traditional blog. You can support that with a voluntary contribution.

Remember, a donation of $50 allows you to dedicate a post with a hyperlink. A $500 donation will list you as a patron with a hyperlink for two years.

Donations can be made via PayPal or Square Cash. Unfortunately, other donations providers have gone out of business or charge too much money in fees. If you are uncomfortable using one of the above providers but still wish to donate, please contact me and I’ll provide an address for a check. My email is pinto@baseballmusings.com.

Square Cash is looking for new customers, which could be a deal for you and this site. If you use share code FVNJNGK when you sign up, and send at least $50, you get back $10 and Baseball Musings gets $10. So you effectively make a $60 donation for $40, and you get the $50 perk!





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Ashbury and Oak – Polygon

Introducing Ashbury + Oak by Polygon –  Choose from  three and four bedroom townhomes in Langley’s Willoughby neighbourhood. This family community offers everything you need with retail shopping, restaurants,  recreation centres nearby.

 

Features

  • Queen Anne-inspired architecture, with dramatic pitched roof lines and bay windows
  • Convenient main floor powder rooms
  • A side-by-side two car garage in every home
  • Decks or raised yards for outdoor entertaining
  • Contemporary interior design with open-plan layouts
  • Kitchens with family-sized kitchen islands, engineered stone countertops, a built-in recycling station and stainless steel appliances
  • Spa-style ensuites feature a luxurious spa-style shower with showerhead with wand and integrated bench seating
  • Warm laminate wood flooring throughout the main floor living areas
  • Nine foot ceilings on the main floor, eight-foot on upper and lower floors
  • Central Green & play areas connected with well-lit pathways
  • Access to Kinfolk House – the residents’ only resort-style clubhouse featuring a swimming pool, great room, fully-equipped fitness centre, indoor playground + much more

 

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Wednesday, March 29, 2017

How to Have an Argument

It appears Jeurys Familia was suspended 15 games for arguing with his wife:

In ruling he found no evidence Familia physically assaulted or threatened wife Bianca Rivas, commissioner Rob Manfred indicated he still felt compelled to issue the pitcher a suspension.

“The evidence reviewed by my office does not support a determination that Mr. Familia physically assaulted his wife or threatened her or others with physical force or harm, on October 31, 2016,” Manfred said in a statement. “Nevertheless I have concluded that Mr. Familia’s overall conduct that night was inappropriate, violated the Policy, and warrants discipline.”

I have to admit I’m not comfortable with this. People who live in close quarters often have arguments. If Familia was subjecting his family to constant verbal abuse, I could see a suspension, but seemed to be just a heated argument. There is a difference:



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First Swings

Jim Albert tries to find the optimum first swing percentage.

As we will see below, there is a lot of variability in the proportion of first pitch swings among regular players. It would see that a moderate value of this swinging proportion would be optimal. If a batter always will take the first pitch, then the pitch can just throw a fastball down the middle of the plate. On the other hand, if the pitcher knows that the batter will swing at a high proportion of first pitches, then the pitcher likely would throw a pitch outside of the strike zone that the batter would chase. To keep the pitcher guessing, it would seem advantageous (from the batter’s perspective) to swing at a “middle” proportion of first pitches.

I have seen very successful hitters who seldom swing at the first pitch, but they tend to be extremely good at strike zone judgement and putting the bat on the ball (Wade Boggs might be the prototype). His sample size is small, but the data does appear to support his theory.



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Pledge Drive Update

The 2017 Baseball Musings pledge drive continues with twenty two people combining to donate $561. Won’t you join them and help keep the Day by Day Database up and running? It’s the site that replicates the old USA Today Sports Weekly stats for your fantasy team.

I would like to raise $1000 by the start of the regular season. That’s 44 people donating $10 each. Will you be one of them?

A donation keeps it possible to use a fine statistical database and lineup analysis and fantasy projections in addition to the traditional blog. You can support that with a voluntary contribution.

Remember, a donation of $50 allows you to dedicate a post with a hyperlink. A $500 donation will list you as a patron with a hyperlink for two years.

Donations can be made via PayPal or Square Cash. Unfortunately, other donations providers have gone out of business or charge too much money in fees. If you are uncomfortable using one of the above providers but still wish to donate, please contact me and I’ll provide an address for a check. My email is pinto@baseballmusings.com.

Square Cash is looking for new customers, which could be a deal for you and this site. If you use share code FVNJNGK when you sign up, and send at least $50, you get back $10 and Baseball Musings gets $10. So you effectively make a $60 donation for $40, and you get the $50 perk!





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In addition, I will accept BitCoin donations through this address:

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Thank you for your support!



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Cambie Gardens Vancouver by Onni

Coming soon to the Cambie corridor is a new development called Cambie Gardens by Onni. This stunning development is going to consist of 2,160 residential homes spread out over a 25.4 acre site. Also, included in this amazing project will be retail and commercial space, health centre, YMCA club and pool, a 2.5 acre park and the new Canada line transit station.

Floor Plans for Cambie Gardens

Floor plans have yet to be finalized but we can expect a wide range of unit options.

Pricing for Cambie Gardens

Please register and join our VIP list for early access and be the first to receive information on plans and pricing.

 

The post Cambie Gardens Vancouver by Onni appeared first on Vancouver New Condos.



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Tuesday, March 28, 2017

2017 NL West Preview

The division previews continue with the NL West. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2016, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2016. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Position Player WAR: 26.3
  • Pitcher Total: 18.5
  • Core Total: 44.8

The Dodgers boast the highest position player core WAR and the highest pitcher core WAR in the division. They trot out three players who posted 5+ WAR in 2016. One of them, Corey Seager, will play 2017 as a 23-year-old so, he is still on the way up. Clayton Kershaw rated at 6.5 WAR despite missing significant time with an injury. Justin Turner, who is older, might fall from that level, but still be an excellent player.

The Dodgers surround that great base with good players. There are no negative WARs in this core. It’s a great plan a few superstars and a lot of solid players. Los Angeles will be tough to beat in the NL West in 2017.

San Francisco Giants

  • Position Player WAR: 22.7
  • Pitcher Total: 17.0
  • Core Total: 39.7

The Giants put together their own set of stars. While no one is at the level of Kershaw and Seager, five players in the current Giants core produced at least four WAR in 2016. There is some upside a Jarrett Parker slides into the lineup. He came to the majors late in his career, already in his prime, but that also means the Giants will get his best now.

There might even be upside with Matt Cain. The veteran former ace came in at zero WAR in 2016, but if he is healthy, he is certainly capable of more. The Giants should give the Dodgers a run for their money, and compete for a wild card berth.

Colorado Rockies

  • Position Player WAR: 20.2
  • Pitcher Total: 10.5
  • Core Total: 30.7

The Rockies are a solid team. The core makes them look like an 80 win team, and it doesn’t take much more from the bench and the bullpen to put them in the high 80s and in wild card contention.

There is plenty of room for optimism, as full seasons from Trevor Story and David Dahl should improve the offense, and youngsters Germán Márquez and Kyle Freeland might improve the rotation. Eight more wins from that group of four and the Rockies are in the race for real.

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Position Player WAR: 9.1
  • Pitcher Total: 7.2
  • Core Total: 16.3

Looking at the WAR of the core players on the Diamondbacks, the question that comes to my mind is how many of these players can bounce back. Can Zack Greinke get back to the five WAR level? Arizona is a tough place to pitch, and he may just give up lots of home runs as long as he plays half his games in Phoenix. Can David Peralta stay healthy and get back to a 3.0 WAR. Can Shelby Miller continue his up and down career with another three WAR season. Nine more WAR from those three players won’t make the Diamondbacks contenders, but they might win more than they lose. Otherwise, outside of Paul Goldschmidt, this is not a very exciting team.

San Diego Padres

  • Position Player WAR: 10.5
  • Pitcher Total: 2.8
  • Core Total: 13.3

This has to be close to the worst pitching rotation I’ve seen going into a season. My dad would refer to them as ‘as beens. I assume they are place holders until the Padres next generation is ready to step into the rotation.

At least there is upside in the offense. Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, and Austin Hedges are youngsters without much major league experience, so they have plenty of room to grow. Margot’s strength is getting on base, Renfroe’s strength is his power, and Hedges hits for a good batting average for a catcher. There’s a good chance the Padres don’t finish last in the division this season.

Probability of winning the division

  • Los Angeles Dodgers 40%
  • San Francisco Giants 30%
  • Colorado Rockies 20%
  • San Diego Padres 7%
  • Arizona Diamondbacks 3%

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TIPS TO HELP YOU DETOXIFY AND LOSE WEIGHT

4 Types of Showerheads

Content originally published and Shared from http://perfectbath.com

Your overall showering experience is affected by many factors. One of these is the type of showerhead you’re using. Check out four common showerhead types below:

Standard Wall-Mount Showerhead
The most economical option, standard wall-mount showerheads can be adjusted slightly by moving the shower neck. Models that offer varying spray types fit the needs of most users. Source: BHG

Hand-Held Showerhead
A hand-held showerhead is connected to a long hose and it sit in a cradle when it is not in your hand. Handheld showerheads can be used as a fixed shower head but when taken off the cradle they can be used for much more, like bathing pets, washing children, and even for cleaning the tub.
Hand-held showerheads are available in many different lengths of hose but to meet ADA compliance they must be at least 84” long. The longer the hose the more convenient but it could get in the way of the tub. Hoses between 60” and 72” work well for the average home. Source: Plumbing.About

Ceiling-Mount Showerhead
The ceiling-mount or top-mount showerhead is installed on the ceiling. The spray of this type of showerhead is reminiscent of rain, as water comes from directly overhead. Ceiling-mount showerheads come in many shapes and sizes. Some models can also be mounted flush to the ceiling, which is great for bathrooms with low ceiling heights. Source: Property24

Aerating Showerhead
By mixing air with water, these showerheads form a misty spray to make the flow feel more substantial. Laminar-flow showerheads form individual streams of water instead. On the models we tested, aeration cooled the water from 5 to 15 degrees F on its way from the showerhead to where it would hit your back. Laminar-flow showerheads may cost a little more, but they save energy by maintaining the water temperature better. And they don’t create as much steam and moisture, a plus especially if you live in a humid region. Source: ConsumerReports

Step up your shower experience by trying out a new type of showerhead! Contact us!

 

Contact:
Perfect Bath
Phone: Toll Free 1-866-843-1641
Calgary, Alberta
Email: info@perfectbath.com

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The Brantley Test

Starting today, Tuesday, the Indians will play Michael Brantley in three straight games to see if his shoulder can take the strain:

Francona said it would probably mean lot to Brantley’s mental state if he can get through the next three games with no problems.

“Yes, very much so,” said Francona. “But maybe he needs more reps. Maybe he needs to get a little beat up. There’s just a lot of things that would go into it. I think he’s worked so hard that he’s in a good spot. I’d just hate to put the opening day thing on him – there might be a little gray area there.”

The idea of a healthy productive Brantley brings a smile to Francona’s face. If he returns to form, Brantley would be the everyday left fielder and would probably hit third in front of Edwin Encarnacion.

The Indians played very well without Brantley in 2016. His coming back healthy would give the Indians one more reason to be optimistic about breaking their World Championship drought.



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Pledge Drive Update

The 2017 Baseball Musings pledge drive continues with Twenty people combining to donate $496. Won’t you join them and help keep the Day by Day Database up and running? It’s the site that replicates the old USA Today Sports Weekly stats for your fantasy team.

I would like to raise $1000 by the start of the regular season. That’s 50 people donating $10 each. Will you be one of them?

A donation keeps it possible to use a fine statistical database and lineup analysis and fantasy projections in addition to the traditional blog. You can support that with a voluntary contribution.

Remember, a donation of $50 allows you to dedicate a post with a hyperlink. A $500 donation will list you as a patron with a hyperlink for two years.

Donations can be made via PayPal or Square Cash. Unfortunately, other donations providers have gone out of business or charge too much money in fees. If you are uncomfortable using one of the above providers but still wish to donate, please contact me and I’ll provide an address for a check. My email is pinto@baseballmusings.com.

Square Cash is looking for new customers, which could be a deal for you and this site. If you use share code FVNJNGK when you sign up, and send at least $50, you get back $10 and Baseball Musings gets $10. So you effectively make a $60 donation for $40, and you get the $50 perk!





Square Cash Link

In addition, I will accept BitCoin donations through this address:

147FVgf4c8uyaqjbj2PTzgxYFPbUYhrpW9

Thank you for your support!



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Monday, March 27, 2017

Everly Green – Qualico

A new Collection of Willoughby, Langley Townhomes & Single Family Homes.

This wonderful new community of 54 townhomes and 36 single family homes is coming soon to Willoughby.

Ideally located at the 82nd Avenue and 204B Streets, this unique community features a shared common greenspace and is bordered on 2 sides by a nature belt. The townhomes will feature 2, 3 and 3+den plans, with either yards or roof top decks. The single family homes will feature 4 bedroom + den or 5 bedroom + den plans, some offering master on main living.

Each home at Everly Green has been thought through carefully and  equipped with fixtures and finishes to give you enjoyment to give you peace of mind, from the Kitchen to the Laundry room!
Each home is equipped with brand name appliances, they will not let you down.
Beautiful  natural surroundings and mountain views make Everly Green the perfect place to call home.

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“Just the facts, Ma’am…”

The phrase, “Just the facts, Ma’am, ” is attributed to Detective Sergeant Joe Friday (played by Jack Webb) in the series, Dragnet.  (Search YouTube or some of the TV Classics channels for episodes.  As a bit of trivia, he actually never said that, but it is very frequently attributed to him).

Detective Joe Friday was a hard-nosed investigator, refusing to be swayed by emotion, guesses, opinions.  Fortunately, his partner and foil, Officer Bill Gannon (played by Harry Morgan) tended to look at these non-factual issues.

Too often, our sales efforts are focused on finding, “Just The Facts.”  We search for the data, we do the analysis, we go through the mechanics of getting information from our customers about making a buying decision.

Many marketers, sellers, content advocates revel in letting customers self educate on the web, thinking buying is just about getting the facts, evaluating the alternatives, and making a rational decision.

If buying were that simple, clearly there is eventually no need for sales people.  After all, AI and other technologies, as well as many of our current content strategies offer prospects and customers data, opinion disguised as facts, and endless reams of information to satisfy the craving for the facts.

But if buying, consequently selling,  is only about the facts, why is it that over 60% of buying decisions end in no decision made?  Why do buying groups implode roughly 37% into their buying process–possibly before they’ve even started their digital research?

Clearly, buying is much more than just presenting the facts and data.  Regardless the volumes of digital data we provide, we will only address a small part of what causes people to buy.

While emerging machine intelligence and AI technologies will help us better understand the facts and data that impact buying behaviors, they may even understand some of the emotions that impact buying behaviors. complex B2B buying is never about the facts.

Buying is really about complex interactions between people.  Lots of them!  In fact, with the CEB 6.8, just among themselves, there are 19.72 interaction paths  (for those of us who struggle dealing with parts of decisionmakers, for 7 there are 21 interaction paths between these.

These interactions with the buying group alone isn’t about the facts.  In fact there may be differing views of the relevant facts.  But each person is a human being, driven by emotions, opinions, personal goals.

Complex B2B buying is really about people dealing with each other—within the buying group, with sales people, with others.  Any time we have people dealing with each other, all the “messiness” of being human intervenes.  It’s recognizing this messiness, not avoiding it, but addressing it head on that’s ultimately most critical about sales.

Lest some take this to extremes, thinking selling is all about emotions and relationships, the facts and data are important.

We have to pay attention and balance each, just like our customers.

 

Afterword:  While I’ve just begun reading the book, Jeb Blount has written what appears to be an excellent book, SalesEQ, which begins to address these issues.  I’ll be sharing more when I finish, but based on what I’ve seen so far, it’s something you should read.

 

 



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Do Diverse Rotations Matter?

Ryan Pollack examines the fastball velocity of team starting pitching to see if similarity of starters leads to a worse outcome. It does not. This is something that managers use to justify slotting someone in a rotation. Seeing a knuckle ball pitcher, for example, messes up batters for the next day. It likely makes very little difference.



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Pledge Drive Update

The 2017 Baseball Musings pledge drive continues with Twenty people combining to donate $496. Won’t you join them and help keep the Day by Day Database up and running? It’s the site that replicates the old USA Today Sports Weekly stats for your fantasy team.

I would like to raise $1000 by the start of the regular season. That’s $100 a day for this work week. Ten people donating $10 each today moves us toward that goal. Will you be one of them?

A donation keeps it possible to use a fine statistical database and lineup analysis and fantasy projections in addition to the traditional blog. You can support that with a voluntary contribution.

Remember, a donation of $50 allows you to dedicate a post with a hyperlink. A $500 donation will list you as a patron with a hyperlink for two years.

Donations can be made via PayPal or Square Cash. Unfortunately, other donations providers have gone out of business or charge too much money in fees. If you are uncomfortable using one of the above providers but still wish to donate, please contact me and I’ll provide an address for a check. My email is pinto@baseballmusings.com.

Square Cash is looking for new customers, which could be a deal for you and this site. If you use share code FVNJNGK when you sign up, and send at least $50, you get back $10 and Baseball Musings gets $10. So you effectively make a $60 donation for $40, and you get the $50 perk!





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Thank you for your support!



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Sunday, March 26, 2017

Team Offense 2017, Summary

With the data in place for the thirty teams, we can get an idea of how the projected lineups and the Musings Marcels projections see the 2017 season in terms of run scoring.

The Indians look like the best offense in the majors, moving up from fourth in 2016. The biggest move belongs to the Houston Astros. They go from 15th to second, while the Tigers are right on their heels, moving from 10th to third. The Yankees make a good jump as well, from 22nd to 11th.

The Cubs are projected to lead the NL once again, but only because they are capturing more of their optimum lineup than the Rockies.

The biggest falls belong to the Reds, going from 18th to 29th, and the Padres, going from 20th to 30th. Both teams are rebuilding, however, so there is going to be a lot of uncertainty. Most of the teams at the bottom of the list in 2016 stay near the bottom, although the Athletics move from 29th to 20th.

The Cardinals appear ripe for a big fall, as the projections have them going from 5th to 15th. They would, however, only fall from 3rd to 4th in the NL. The Mariners, on the other hand, fall from sixth to 13th overall, and third to ninth in the American League.

The mean runs scored of the probable lineup is 4.63 runs per game with a standard deviation of 0.32. Last season the majors averaged 4.48 runs per game. The probable lineups are really a best case scenario, where everyone stays healthy and plays to projections. The regressed runs per game column averaged 4.33 runs per game with a standard deviation of 0.21. I’d like to see the 4.48 mark beat this year.

Previous posts in this series:



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Trout on Improving Umpires

Mike Trout wants minor league umpires to get some major league experience in spring training:

It was during one of those chats with a veteran umpire earlier this spring that Trout offered a thought: As the experienced umpires work their way back into game shape in spring training, just as the players do, why not have them work five or six innings and turn over the last innings to umpires who would normally work minor league games on back fields?

The idea is simple, but has a lot of helpful layers, beyond allowing an older plate umpire a little more time to work into condition in spring to see 350 or so pitches in a given game. It is extraordinarily difficult for young umpires to advance in the industry because there is little annual turnover among umpires in the big leagues. For a young umpire slated for Class A or AA to get a few innings in a major league exhibition — with the packed ballpark and major league players — would be something of a reward, as it is for the minor league players.

This is an excellent idea from an excellent and ballplayer.



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Team Offense, Philadelphia Phillies

The 2017 series on team offense concludes with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies finished last majors in 2016 with 3.77 runs scored per game. They were about a quarter run worse per game than the 29th team.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Pete Mackanin order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, slot, I used the actual values for the Phillies in 2016. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.40
Probable lineup: 4.21
Worst lineup: 3.83
Regressed lineup: 4.05

The good news is that even the worst arrangement of the Phillies hitters should score more runs than the team did last season. The even better news is that the Phillies have some young hitters who look like they’ll post good OBPs. That gives fans hope for years to come.

The default lineup is actually pretty good. The LAT agrees on certain groupings and orderings. It likes Maikel Franco and Tommy Joseph four and five, but in the opposite order. It likes the ordering of the Phillies bottom third, although it moves everyone up a slot to put the pitcher in the eight hole. Mackanin experimented with batting the pitcher eighth last season, and we’ll see if he does it again this year.

This is a Phillies offense on the way up. If they can bring along someone to improve on Howie Kendrick‘s slot they should move ahead of some teams this season.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Help support this series and the LAT by donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Previous posts in this series:



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Pledge Drive Update

The 2017 Baseball Musings pledge drive continues with eighteen people combining to donate $461. Won’t you join them and help keep the Day by Day Database up and running? It’s the site that replicates the old USA Today Sports Weekly stats for your fantasy team.

I would like to raise $1000 by the start of the regular season. If everyone who visits the site today donates $10, That total would be blown away.

A donation keeps it possible to use a fine statistical database and lineup analysis and fantasy projections in addition to the traditional blog. You can support that with a voluntary contribution.

Remember, a donation of $50 allows you to dedicate a post with a hyperlink. A $500 donation will list you as a patron with a hyperlink for two years.

Donations can be made via PayPal or Square Cash. Unfortunately, other donations providers have gone out of business or charge too much money in fees. If you are uncomfortable using one of the above providers but still wish to donate, please contact me and I’ll provide an address for a check. My email is pinto@baseballmusings.com.

Square Cash is looking for new customers, which could be a deal for you and this site. If you use share code FVNJNGK when you sign up, and send at least $50, you get back $10 and Baseball Musings gets $10. So you effectively make a $60 donation for $40, and you get the $50 perk!





Square Cash Link

In addition, I will accept BitCoin donations through this address:

147FVgf4c8uyaqjbj2PTzgxYFPbUYhrpW9

Thank you for your support!



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Saturday, March 25, 2017

Team Offense, Oakland Athletics

The 2017 series on team offense continues with the Oakland Athletics. The Athletics finished 15th in the American League and twenty ninth in the majors in 2016 with 4.03 runs scored per game. (Both Atlanta and Oakland round to 4.03, but Oakland’s actual ratio is lower.)

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Bob Melvin order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.61
Probable lineup: 4.53
Worst lineup: 4.32
Regressed lineup: 4.26

The LAT and the Oakland default lineup match at four slots, four, six, seven and nine. The big argument between the two appears to be over Rajai Davis. Melvin bats him lead-off. The LAT bats him eighth, the slot for the worst hitter on the team. Davis posted OBPs of .320, .306, and .306 the last three seasons, but he led the American League with 43 steals in 2016, making 49 attempts. I have to assume the Athletics see that quantity and quality of base stealing as valuable enough to put Davis at the top of the order.

The batter to watch appears to be Ryon Healy, who knocked out 33 extra base hits in just 283 PA as a rookie in 2016. That was good for a .524 slugging percentage and a projection of .343/.500. He and Khris Davis should supply plenty of power in the middle of that order. Of course, that’s another reason to have batters on base more often in front of them, as opposed to farther along the base path.

If the projections hold, Oakland should put up much better offensive numbers in 2017.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Help support this series and the LAT by donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Previous posts in this series:



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Team Offense, Atlanta Braves

The 2017 series on team offense continues with the Atlanta Braves. The Braves finished 14th in the National League and twenty eighth in the majors in 2016 with 4.03 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Brian Snitker order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, slot, I used the actual values for the Braves in 2016. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.49
Probable lineup: 4.24
Worst lineup: 3.84
Regressed lineup: 4.07

The Braves are opening a new park and want to put a competitive team on the field. They should be somewhat better offensively, but they don’t appear to have enough of an improvement in offense alone to make that leap.

One thing is that the youth hasn’t really arrived yet. Dansby Swanson is good and young, but going up and down the lineup there are a lot of 30 year old plus players. Freddie Freeman is just past the peak age of his career, and Ender Inciarte is just approaching it. Freeman may wind up being the veteran presence that leads the next generation, rather than the straw the stirs the drink if and when the younger talent arrives.

I would guess the first person to go would be Adonis Garcia. Rio Ruiz is old enough and experienced enough that he should be able to come to the majors and post a much better OBP than Garcia. Ruiz will play 2017 as a 23-year-old, so I assume the Braves will keep him down long enough so they can capture seven seasons from him under team control The will get his entire prime at a discount.

This isn’t a bad lineup. I would agree with the LAT that Brandon Phillips should bat lower in the order. What is going to be most interesting is how different this lineup looks in August.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Help support this series and the LAT by donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Previous posts in this series:



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Pledge Drive Leverage

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is nearing the end, and is about $600 short of the $1000 goal. This is to remind you and you can help reach that goal with fewer dollars by joining Square Cash.

Square Cash is looking for new customers, which could be a deal for you and this site. If you use share code FVNJNGK when you sign up, and send at least $50, you get back $10 and Baseball Musings gets $10. So you effectively make a $60 donation for $40, and you get the $50 perk! If ten people join Square Cash and donate $50, (effectively, $40) the pledge drive will be over.

If you’ve been waiting for the right time to donate, now you can do so at a 20% discount.



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Friday, March 24, 2017

Do What Works, Don’t Do What Doesn’t!

Recently, I wrote, Predictable Revenue.  It’s about sales process, in the article I made a statement which is suddenly making the rounds on social media.  I said, “While the concept of the sales process is very simple—do what works, don’t do what doesn’t work, recognize the patterns for success, repeat, repeat, repeat.”

The concept, Do What Works, Don’t Do What Doesn’t, really applies to everything we do.

Some of you are getting pissed off, thinking “Dave you are stating the obvious, do you take us for idiots?”

Well, no, but…..

Too often I see organizations committed to doing what doesn’t work.  Perhaps we get so focused on activity and velocity, we don’t examine what we are doing, or we do what we have always done.

We know we need to have a sales process, but too often we don’t, or we don’t use it.

We know we are supposed to hire the right people, but too often we settle for what we get.

We know we are supposed to coach, but we don’t find the time or we don’t train our managers in how to coach.

We know we have to have clear performance expectations and our people need to own the accountability for achieving them, but we don’t take the time to engage our people in these discussions.

We know training by itself is unsustainable, that it needs to be reinforce with coaching, integrated into our processes, tools, programs, and methods.

We know our prospecting messages have to be personalized, relevant, and focused on what the customer cares about, but it’s easier to paper the world with spam, hoping enough are foolish enough to respond.

We know we have to understand our customers, their business and drivers, to engage them on terms meaningful to them.  Yet we spend know time on business acumen, we don’t leverage our research tools as we should.

We know we should create value in every interaction with the customer, yet we focus on pitching our products (which the customer already knows through their self-educations).

We know we aren’t supposed to sell on price (unless our differentiation is based solely on price), yet we lead with price and start discounting before the customer asks.

We know……

We know….

We know….

Too often, we know what works, and what doesn’t, but we don’t have the courage and discipline to do what works or stop what doesn’t.  It is easier to repeat the same old stuff, even if it isn’t producing the desired outcomes.

But sometimes we don’t know….  Then we have to figure it out.  We can pretty easily figure out what doesn’t work.  We can learn, experiment, talk to others–maybe our customers, to start learning what does work.  It takes some time, we make some errors, but eventually we figure that out.  After all, figuring out what works and executing it consistently is our job.

We have to be cautious, things change.  What worked yesterday, doesn’t work as well today, and won’t work tomorrow.  So we have to be attentive, What Works is constantly evolving.  If we stop paying attention, What Works no longer works….but we keep doing it, failing to produce results.

Hundreds of books, thousands of posts are published by guru’s every year.  Cutting through the 100’s of thousands of words written, fundamentally what they are saying is, “This is what works…”  We still have to be cautious, it’s what works for them, but may not work for us.  We have to adapt that advice, figuring out What Works for us.

In addition to What Works always changing, we also know that What Works is that it is different for each organization.  So it’s our responsibility to figure it out.  If we copy our competition, or someone else, or what a guru says, we are only doing what works for them, not what works for us.

But with all that said, producing results consistently isn’t magic, Do What Works, Don’t Do What Doesn’t.

 

 



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Thursday, March 23, 2017

Stoke on Trent Model Show and Figureworld 2017

US Champs

Congratulations to Team USA on their 8-0 victory in the World Baseball Classic Championship game.

Both starters in the pitching rematch between the United States and Puerto Rico from their Pool F matchup on March 17 shone in different ways. While Seth Lugo struck out seven Americans through four innings, Marcus Stroman, the eventual WBC MVP, pitched a no-hitter through six innings. Even after Angel Pagan knocked Stroman out of the game with a leadoff single in the seventh, the only other Puerto Rican to record a hit was Yadier Molina.

The blonde ambition of Team Puerto Rico was not enough for them to run the table.

I liked how efficiently Stroman worked last night. If he can carry that into the regular season, we might see some Greg Maddux type sub 100 pitch complete games from the Blue Jays ace.



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Pledge Drive Update

The 2017 Baseball Musings pledge drive continues with seventeen people combining to donate $411. Won’t you join them and help keep the Day by Day Database up and running? It’s the site that replicates the old USA Today Sports Weekly stats for your fantasy team.

I would like to raise $1000 by the start of the regular season. If everyone who visits the site today donates $10, That total would be blown away.

A donation keeps it possible to use a fine statistical database and lineup analysis and fantasy projections in addition to the traditional blog. You can support that with a voluntary contribution.

Remember, a donation of $50 allows you to dedicate a post with a hyperlink. A $500 donation will list you as a patron with a hyperlink for two years.

Donations can be made via PayPal or Square Cash. Unfortunately, other donations providers have gone out of business or charge too much money in fees. If you are uncomfortable using one of the above providers but still wish to donate, please contact me and I’ll provide an address for a check. My email is pinto@baseballmusings.com.

Square Cash is looking for new customers, which could be a deal for you and this site. If you use share code FVNJNGK when you sign up, and send at least $50, you get back $10 and Baseball Musings gets $10. So you effectively make a $60 donation for $40, and you get the $50 perk!





Square Cash Link

In addition, I will accept BitCoin donations through this address:

147FVgf4c8uyaqjbj2PTzgxYFPbUYhrpW9

Thank you for your support!



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Optimizing Part Of The Selling Function, Sub-Optimizing The Whole

Recently. I read an article in which the position was put forth, “Inside sales does not have the responsibility for creating pipeline, only the responsibility for selling.  They should never pick up the phone and make a prospecting call!”  Many of you can imagine what my knee jerk reaction was to this statement.  But for a moment, I managed to contain myself.  The speaker was clearly smart and had been very successful in selling, perhaps there was something I misunderstood.

As I got into the article, the question was posed, “Who is responsible for developing pipeline?”  The response was, “Someone else….”

The article went on, I realized the speaker was arguing for a very high degree of specialization within the sales function.  Specialization makes sense—where it makes sense.

Specialization has been around for decades.  We’ve long had product line specialists, organizations where sales is oriented around different product lines, each sales team responsible for the sale of a specific product line.  A terrific strategy for driving product line growth.  But then the questions come, Who is responsible for the customer relationship?  Who is responsible for maximizing our share of customer?  What experience do we want to create, how do we want the customer to “think” of our company?  Where product lines are very diverse, with different and unrelated buyers within the account, this issue may not be important (But I’m still driven by my mantra, “It’s our God-given right to 100% share of customer and territory…”).  But as buying teams start to overlap, this issue becomes critical.

Enter the realm of account management/territory.  Often, the way we solved the inherent challenges of a product oriented sales force, is we shifted to account/territory management, with sales people responsible for selling the entire product line to their customers.  There are some clear advantages to this, but also limitations—particularly if you have a large, diverse, and complex product line.  No one person could be expert in each.

Organizations solve this by creating hybrid/overlay sales organizations.  Perhaps account/territory managers for core product lines and managing the overall customer relationship, with specialists for the more complex product lines.  The idea here is for the account/territory people to work collaboratively with the specialists.  The concept of “team selling” arose.  Variations started being introduced as partners and channels became part of the go to customer model.

Then, the idea of specialization by simple/transactional versus complex sales arose.  We started segmenting the sales process with people focused on the simpler/transactional sales (usually inside sales) and those that focused on complex sales (usually the field/territory people and specialists).  There were still challenges from the customer point of view (if it wasn’t for those pesky customers worried about their experience and how they want to buy), but this specialization was another turn of the crank in making the sales organization very efficient.  Often, the idea being, inside sales was a lower cost of selling than field sales, they could more cost effectively handle the transactional/lower margin product lines.

As selling becomes more complex (though I think at least in B2B, it’s always been complex), sales executives have always been confronted with the issue of “How do we become more efficient?  How do we reduce the cost of selling?”  Oddly, they don’t ask the question, “How do we become more effective, how to we align ourselves to buy the way the customer wants to buy,” very often.

Over time, we continue to slice and dice what sales people do—all in the name of efficiency.  We’ve sliced and diced the sales process, getting people expert at one thing–prospecting, qualifying, discovering, proposing, closing.  Each expert at doing their job and only their job, each waiting for others to do their jobs.

We have SDRs, they have further been segmented by inbound/outbound, BDMs, Sales Executives.  We have Account SDRs, BDMs, managers/executives.  We have inside/outside/partner/channel sales people.  Based on the argument of the person I cite at the beginning of this diatribe, we need to further be segmenting by having people–but not sales people–prospecting and generating pipeline.  We have marketing generating pipeline–or at least a marketing pipeline–which always seems different from the sales pipeline.  We have organizations that have “closers,” only focused on the final steps of the sales process.

In our quest for optimization and efficiency, we’ve created a giant assembly line, passing the customer from specialist to specialist.   Each specialist doing their job, then passing the customer along to do the next part of the job, then the next.

(We, also, have to recognize, that we are driving increased levels of complexity into our business (managing the transitions is a challenge), as well as huge levels of complexity for our customers in doing business with us.)

Wait a minute, haven’t we seen this model before?  Oh, yes, it’s the manufacturing line made so famous by Henry Ford.  The job of building cars was segmented down to minute steps, each performed by a specialist, with hundreds of specialists doing their thing–perhaps tightening a bolt, installing a door.  But there were problems with the approach.  Back ups/problems in one area would shut down all the other functions–upstream and down stream.  Quality became an issue.  Each person doing their job, but no one responsible for overall quality–so by the time the product got to a customer, it didn’t work.  (In engineering, we call it the “stack-up problem—each part fits it’s specs, but taken together they don’t.)

Toyota did huge amounts to address this with the Toyota production method.  A fundamental principle is to eliminate all variability  (Hmmmmmm, works well with inanimate objects, but what about people?)

Soon many manufacturing organizations started looking at the issue from the “whole,” not the “pieces/parts.”  They started clustering work, reducing the number of specialist, building teams, empowering them to change the process (but they are still doing inanimate parts).

You get the picture.  Specialization works–where it works.  But sometimes specialization sub-optimizes the entire process.  Focusing on the efficiency of the pieces-parts may not create an overall efficient or effective end to end process.

But the most important thing lost in this discussion is the customer and their experience!

Efficient manufacturing works because we can design out variability.  It works because we are dealing with objects that have no emotions, that have no fears, that aren’t learning, growing, or changing their minds.  It works because we’ve broken down what may be complex and made it simple–but that’s not how our customers work–they are in the world of the complex (6.8 decsionmakers involved in the consensus decision).

Perhaps, in our quest for our own efficiency, we are solving for the wrong problem.  What if we focused on the customer–their efficiency and effectiveness in their problem solving process?  Perhaps, in solving for this problem, we discover how we might become more efficient and more effective–for them and for us.



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Wednesday, March 22, 2017

All US Final

The United Stats WBC team beat Japan 2-1 Tuesday night to set up an all US final as the States face US territory Puerto Rico. It won’t attract much attention from the rest of the world, but I find it good for the tournament that the US finally rose to a level to make the final, and that a Puerto Rico win might mark a revival of the sport on that island. Puerto Rico is going through tough time economically right now, so their winning streak in this tournament is a nice respite from those worries.



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Pledge Drive Update

The 2017 Baseball Musings pledge drive continues with sixteen people combining to donate $396. Won’t you join them and help keep the Day by Day Database up and running? It’s the site that replicates the old USA Today Sports Weekly stats for your fantasy team.

I want to thank the person who donated via Square Cash. Square Cash does not send any information other than the name of the person, so I can’t send a personal thank you note. Thanks for your generosity!

Square Cash is looking for new customers, which could be a deal for you and me. If you use share code FVNJNGK when you sign up, and send at least $50, you get back $10 and Baseball Musings gets $10.

I would like to raise $1000 by the start of the regular season. If everyone who visits the site today donates $10, That total would be blown away.

A donation keeps it possible to use a fine statistical database and lineup analysis and fantasy projections in addition to the traditional blog. You can support that with a voluntary contribution.

Remember, a donation of $50 allows you to dedicate a post with a hyperlink. A $500 donation will list you as a patron with a hyperlink for two years.

Donations can be made via PayPal or Square Cash. Unfortunately, other donations providers have gone out of business or charge too much money in fees. If you are uncomfortable using one of the above providers but still wish to donate, please contact me and I’ll provide an address for a check. My email is pinto@baseballmusings.com.





Square Cash Link

In addition, I will accept BitCoin donations through this address:

147FVgf4c8uyaqjbj2PTzgxYFPbUYhrpW9

Thank you for your support!



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4 Quick Tips for Organizing Bathrooms

Content originally published and Shared from http://perfectbath.com

Is your bathroom a mess? If so, there are some simple ways to organize it.

Below are 4 quick tips for organizing bathrooms:

Image Source: Flickr

Keep Some Supplies to Yourself
Daily skin-care essentials are best stored in the medicine cabinet for easy access at the sink and mirror. Stow the items you use only on an as-needed basis—summer sunblock, tampons, guest soaps—in a closet or a closed cabinet. To save money and cut down on waste and trips to the store, buy shampoo, conditioner, and body wash in bulk and store them here. Decant the products into smaller bottles for the shower and even tinier ones for traveling. (You can find small containers at drugstores and websites like organize.com.)
Instead of clustering a sea of crowded bottles on a shelf, arrange all your backup supplies (or those you use infrequently) on bleacherlike seating. The Stainless Steel Three-Tiered Expanding Shelf ($30, containerstore.com), originally designed to hold kitchen spices, can be lengthened to fit your space. Source:  RealSimple

Repurpose Wicker Baskets
The cute basket that just doesn’t fit in your bathroom cabinet might have a purpose elsewhere — like on the walls. Hang two above your toilet to hold rolled up towels and discreetly hide toilet paper in a handy spot. Source: GoodhouseKeeping

Organize Your Medicine Cabinet
These bathroom organization ideas will help you keep your towels, toilet paper, and toiletries in order. Make the most of those small spaces with these easy tips!
Combs, brushes, and toothpaste take up considerable space when laid horizontally on a shelf. Flat-backed, self-adhesive cups on the inside of the cabinet door hold them more efficiently. Before pressing the cups in place, line them up between the shelves. To ensure the door can close, put thin items on the shelves in the spots where the cups will take up some space. Source: MarthaStewart

Add Creative Towel Storage
If your towel rack isn’t big enough to hang the family’s towels, add hooks to the bathroom. Towel hooks are inexpensive, easy to mount and create a space for each member of the family to hang their towel. No more fighting over whose is whose, plus your bathroom floor will remain dry, not damp. Source: HGTV

 

Contact:
Perfect Bath
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Calgary, Alberta
Email: info@perfectbath.com

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Predictable Revenue

No, this post is not about Aaron Ross’ book, at least directly.  It’s about the challenge each sales person and leader faces in achieving their sales goals.  How do we create “Predictable Revenue?”

This issue is at the core of most conversations I have with sales people.  They are struggling to make their numbers, they face more competition, it’s more challenging to access customers, things seem to be tougher.

These sales people are struggling, trying anything they can to find opportunities, qualify them, move them to closure.  Often, it looks like “bumper cars,” at a carnival–events or circumstances push them one way, other things push them another.  They are trying to make things happen,  there is a lot of activity, but, in reality, they are not making progress to their goals.  Or at least not enough deals are progressing in a systematic way to enable them to achieve their goals.

Inevitably, as they describe their circumstances, I ask, “Tell me about your selling process…….”

Their reactions are predictable, they roll their eyes, sigh, and respond, “Dave, let’s not talk about this sales process BS, we need to produce results, we need a regular cadence of business!  What do we do?”

The problem is, we know the answer to predictable revenue, but we don’t have the courage and discipline to do the things that produce predictable revenue.

Generating the right revenue stream is not rocket science.  It’s understanding how to find and qualify the right customers.  It’s understanding the critical activities they undertake in their buying process, and the critical sales activities we need to execute to help the customer through their buying process.  It’s understanding the levers that enable us to maximize our ability to win, compress the buying cycle (so customer realize value sooner), maximize deal value/margin (enabling customers to “buy into” our value creation).

We do this at scale by looking at the common patterns across our business.  Who are the right customers?  Why would they be compelled to change?  Who is involved in buying?  What activities do they go typically go through?  What do we need to do to be most helpful in choosing us?

Of course every situation is nuanced and different, but we recognize common patterns and activities in deals where we have achieved success.  We see different patterns and activities in deals where we fail.

Pretty soon, we get it, “Do what works, don’t do what doesn’t work!”   (People pay me a lot of money for that observation.)

Yes, already you know what I’m talking about.  As much as you don’t want to admit it, the secret to predictable revenue is your sales process!

The sales process is simply the collection of your organization’s best practices  of doing what works/avoiding what doesn’t work.

We’ve known this for decades.  We see top performers doing this all the time–they may call it their system, they may not even be able to articulate it.  But watch them, they do the stuff that works all the time, deal after deal after deal.  And that’s what makes them top performers.

We know what drive predictable revenue.  It’s simple, do what works all the time.

I suspect we resist that.  It gets boring, doing the same thing deal after deal.  We want to take short cuts.  We’re consumed by wishful thinking.  We get distracted by the latest shiny object or advice from some self proclaimed guru.  We look at others, copying theirs, rather than recognizing that what makes us successful is different than what makes anyone else successful.  Our sales process is unique to us, copying someone else’s is what causes them to be successful, but not what causes us to be successful.

While the concept of the sales process is very simple—do what works, don’t do what doesn’t work, recognize the patterns for success, repeat, repeat, repeat; executing the sales process rigorously is tough.  We have to do the work.  We have to be deeply engaged with our customers, doing the right things with the right people at the right time.

Whether what we sell is a subscription service the customer pays $100/month for, or capital equipment costing $100s of thousands, or professional services costing millions, we can drive predictability into our revenue streams.  It’s about understanding our selling process and executing it rigorously.

 

 



from Partners in EXCELLENCE Blog — Making A Difference http://ift.tt/2mrBfkk